The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany climbed 16.0 points from the previous month to 26.7 in January 2020, the highest since July 2015 and well above market expectations of 15.0. Investors believe the trade dispute's negative effects on the German economy will be less pronounced than previously thought following the recent signing of the US-China Phase One agreement. In addition, the German economy developed slightly better than expected in the previous year. Meanwhile, the assessment of the economic situation also improved considerably, with the corresponding indicator jumping 10.4 points to -9.5. Zew Economic Sentiment Index in Germany averaged 21.27 from 1991 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 89.60 in January of 2000 and a record low of -63.90 in July of 2008. source: Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW)

Zew Economic Sentiment Index in Germany is expected to be -8.00 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Zew Economic Sentiment Index in Germany to stand at -4.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Germany Zew Economic Sentiment Index is projected to trend around -3.00 in 2020, according to our econometric models.


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Germany Zew Economic Sentiment Index

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
26.70 10.70 89.60 -63.90 1991 - 2020 Monthly



Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-10-15 09:00 AM Oct -22.8 -22.5 -27 -29.4
2019-11-12 10:00 AM Nov -2.1 -22.8 -13 -16.4
2019-12-10 10:00 AM Dec 10.7 -2.1 0.3 1
2020-01-21 10:00 AM Jan 26.7 10.7 15 15
2020-02-18 10:00 AM Feb 26.7 19


News Stream
2019-12-10
German Investor Morale at Near 2-Year High
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany jumped 12.8 points from the previous month to 10.7 in December 2019, the highest level since February 2018 and well above market expectations of 0.3, on hopes that German exports and private consumption will develop better than previously thought. Stronger than expected exports data, alongside relatively robust economic growth in the EU in the third quarter and a stable German labour market were enough to offset weak figures for industrial production and incoming orders for October. The assessment of the economic situation also improved, rising by 4.8 points to -19.9.

2019-11-12
German Investor Morale Improves Strongly
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany jumped 20.7 points from a month earlier to -2.1 in November 2019, the highest since May and easily beating market expectations of -13. “There is growing hope that the international economic policy environment will improve in the near future, which explains the sharp rise in the ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment in November. In the meantime, the chances for a agreement between Great Britain and the EU and thus for a regulated withdrawal of Great Britain have noticeably increased. Punitive tariffs on car imports from the EU to the United States are also less likely than the projections a few weeks ago. An agreement in the trade conflict between the USA and China is appearing more likely too,” commented ZEW President Professor Achim Wambach. Also, the assessment of the economic situation in the country improved slightly by 0.6 points to -24.7.

2019-10-15
German Investor Morale Deteriorates Slightly
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany fell 0.3 points from a month earlier to -22.8 in October 2019 and compared with market consensus of -27, as financial market experts continue to expect a further deterioration of the German economy. Additionally, the most recent trade agreement between the US and China does not seem to diminish economic scepticism. Meantime, the assessment of the economic situation in Germany worsened by 5.4 points to a current reading of -25.3, below forecast of -26 and reaching its lowest since April 2010.

2019-09-17
German Investor Morale Stronger than Expected
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany jumped 21.6 points from a month earlier to -22.5 in September 2019, recovering from its lowest level since December 2011 and easily beating market expectations of -37.0, as the rather strong fears that financial experts had in the previous month regarding a further intensification of the US-China trade conflict did not come true. In addition, hopes that a no deal Brexit can be avoided and the ECB's monetary policy stimulus also supported sentiment. Meanwhile, the assessment of the economic situation in Germany worsened by 6.4 points to -19.9 in September, the lowest since May 2010.

2019-08-13
German Investor Morale Tumbles to 7-1/2-Year Low
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany plunged 19.6 points from a month earlier to -44.1 in August 2019, the lowest reading since December 2011 and below market expectations of -28.5. The most recent escalation in the trade dispute between the US and China, the risk of competitive devaluations, and the increased likelihood of a no-deal Brexit place additional pressure on the already weak economic growth. This will most likely put a further strain on the development of German exports and industrial production. Meanwhile, the assessment of the economic situation in Germany worsened considerably by 12.4 points to -13.5 in August.

2019-07-16
German Investor Morale Worsens to 9-Month Low
The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany fell 3.4 points from a month earlier to -24.5 in July 2019, the lowest reading since last October and below market expectations of -22.3. The continued negative trend in incoming orders in the German industry is likely to have reinforced the financial market experts’ pessimistic sentiment, while the Iran conflict and the ongoing trade dispute between the US and China are weighing on the global economic outlook. Meanwhile, the assessment of the economic situation in Germany worsened by 8.9 points to a current reading of -1.1.


Germany Zew Economic Sentiment Index
In Germany, the ZEW Economic Sentiment Index measures the level of optimism that analysts have about the expected economic developments over the next 6 months. The survey covers up to 350 financial and economic analysts. The index is constructed as the difference between the percentage share of analysts that are optimistic and the percentage of analysts that are pessimistic about the development of the economy. Therefore, the ZEW indicator measures the confidence on a scale of -100 (all analysts expect the economy to deteriorate) up to 100 (all analysts expect it to improve). A 0 value indicates neutrality.

Germany Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 96.30 95.10 109.80 80.10 points [+]
Services PMI 52.90 51.70 60.30 41.30 points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 43.70 44.10 63.30 32.00 points [+]
Composite Pmi 50.20 49.40 59.00 48.50 points [+]
Industrial Production -2.60 -4.60 15.30 -21.80 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.10 -1.00 4.00 -6.90 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -4.00 -5.90 15.50 -24.10 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 82.60 83.90 88.80 70.30 percent [+]
New Orders 100.30 101.50 113.00 8.80 points [+]
Factory Orders -1.30 0.20 27.10 -15.70 percent [+]
Changes in Inventories -7.73 2.64 11.20 -8.53 EUR Billion [+]
Bankruptcies 1592.00 1507.00 3755.00 416.00 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 174.78 177.41 188.02 92.45 EUR Billion [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index 26.70 10.70 89.60 -63.90 [+]
Car Production 276400.00 423400.00 583399.00 265542.00 Units [+]
Car Registrations 283380.00 299127.00 552865.00 43460.00 [+]
Internet Speed 15298.72 14588.37 15298.72 3207.62 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 38794861.00 38344874.00 38794861.00 18134106.00 IP [+]
Mining Production -6.80 -7.30 46.60 -30.40 percent [+]
Steel Production 3215.00 3322.93 4744.00 907.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Competitiveness Index 81.80 82.84 82.84 5.37 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 7.00 3.00 7.00 3.00 [+]
Corruption Index 80.00 81.00 82.70 73.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 11.00 12.00 20.00 10.00 [+]
Ease of Doing Business 22.00 24.00 27.00 14.00 [+]