Germany - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Germany including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Germany economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 3.40 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 4 percent
Inflation Rate 2.10 1.8 2 2.3 2.4 2.4 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0.25 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade 19669.00 21800 17400 24000 23600 11400 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 64.10 62.4 62.4 60.5 60.5 60.1 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.17
1.14 1.13 1.11 1.09 1.02
Stock Market 12546.47
points
11927 11528 11143 10770 9402
Government Bond 10Y 0.39
percent
0.36 0.45 0.56 0.71 1.72
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30
percent
0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.30
percent
2.4 2.3 2.5 2.5 2.4
GDP 3677.44
USD Billion
4020 4020 4140 4140 4370
GDP Constant Prices 739.90
EUR Billion
742 755 758 746 791
Gross National Product 852.70
EUR Billion
847 860 874 847 901
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 151.85
EUR Billion
151 153 156 152 160
GDP per capita 46747.19
USD
47400 47400 48500 48500 49500
GDP per capita PPP 45229.25
USD
46000 46000 46700 46700 47400
GDP From Agriculture 4.28
EUR Billion
5.53 4.75 4.38 5.72 4.98
GDP From Construction 31.98
EUR Billion
39.37 41.87 32.78 37.21 43.86
GDP From Manufacturing 172.42
EUR Billion
174 172 177 173 181
GDP From Public Administration 137.99
EUR Billion
135 144 141 133 151
GDP From Services 115.85
EUR Billion
123 124 119 124 130
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 3.40
percent
3.6 3.7 3.8 3.8 4
Employed Persons 44684.00
Thousand
44790 44800 44850 44900 45900
Unemployed Persons 2275.79
Thousand
2430 2490 2520 2550 2710
Unemployment Change -15.00
Thousand
11 7 11 15 15
Long Term Unemployment Rate 1.50
percent
1.8 2 2 2.1 2.3
Youth Unemployment Rate 6.10
percent
5.7 5.4 5.5 5.6 6.4
Labour Costs 113.11
Index Points
115 116 116 117 120
Productivity 104.60
Index Points
105 106 107 107 111
Job Vacancies 660.50
Thousand
687 670 691 685 640
Wages 3809.00
EUR/Month
3920 3940 3980 4000 4110
Wages in Manufacturing 113.20
Index Points
112 112 113 114 115
Wage Growth 1.10
percent
1.2 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.8
Minimum Wages 8.84
EUR/Hour
8.84 8.84 9.5 9.5 9.5
Population 82.85
Million
82.85 82.85 83.14 83.14 83.45
Retirement Age Women 65.58
65.58 65.58 65.67 65.67 65.75
Retirement Age Men 65.58
65.58 65.58 65.67 65.67 65.75
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.00
percent
62 62 62.4 62.6 64
Living Wage Family 1990.00
EUR/Month
2000 2000 2150 2150 2200
Living Wage Individual 1240.00
EUR/Month
1300 1300 1360 1360 1450
Part Time Employment 10845.70
Thousand
11400 11800 12000 12100 13500
Wages Low Skilled 2050.00
EUR/Month
2140 2140 2200 2200 2280
Wages High Skilled 3550.00
EUR/Month
3650 3650 3700 3700 3750
Employment Change 0.40
percent
0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3
Employment Rate 75.40
percent
75.6 75.9 76 75.9 75.4
Full Time Employment 29620.60
Thousand
30500 31200 31400 31500 32500
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.10
percent
1.8 2 2.3 2.4 2.4
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent
0.3 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI 111.30
Index Points
112 113 113 114 118
Harmonised Consumer Prices 103.90
Index Points
104 105 106 106 111
Core Consumer Prices 110.50
Index Points
112 113 113 113 119
Core Inflation Rate 1.38
percent
2 2.3 2.1 2.2 2.5
Producer Prices 107.60
Index Points
108 108 109 110 113
Producer Prices Change 3.00
percent
2.5 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.3
Export Prices 107.40
Index Points
107 107 108 108 111
Import Prices 104.50
Index Points
103 103 104 105 107
Food Inflation 3.20
percent
2.5 2 2.1 2.2 2.5
CPI Housing Utilities 111.60
Index Points
112 113 113 114 118
CPI Transportation 111.40
Index Points
110 111 111 114 116
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.32
percent
-0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 0.43
Money Supply M1 2116.60
EUR Billion
2190 2200 2220 2260 2400
Money Supply M2 2939.60
EUR Billion
3000 3130 3200 3240 3540
Money Supply M3 2975.60
EUR Billion
3420 3500 3620 3740 4510
Foreign Exchange Reserves 167078.00
EUR Million
173000 175000 176000 177000 181000
Banks Balance Sheet 7929.05
EUR Billion
8950 9150 9400 9500 10200
Loans to Private Sector 1429.44
EUR Billion
1460 1480 1510 1520 1700
Private Debt to GDP 147.70
percent
142 142 138 138 132
Central Bank Balance Sheet 1777.60
EUR Billion
2980 3280 3420 3620 5680
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 19669.00
EUR Million
21800 17400 24000 23600 11400
Exports 109098.00
EUR Million
106700 94300 107700 106100 91300
Imports 89429.00
EUR Million
84900 76900 83700 82500 79900
Current Account 12588.73
EUR Million
21700 17400 30600 20800 15400
External Debt 4648614.00
EUR Million
4860000 4910000 4980000 5060000 5510000
Current Account to GDP 8.00
percent
6.2 6.2 5.7 5.7 5.2
Capital Flows -3448.05
EUR Million
20700 18800 30600 19400 14800
Foreign Direct Investment 3707.00
EUR Million
8500 2500 15100 11100 2130
Gold Reserves 3371.00
Tonnes
3400 3400 3400 3400 3400
Terms Of Trade 102.78
Index Points
104 104 104 103 104
Terrorism Index 4.92
4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92 4.92
Tourist Arrivals 37452.00
Thousand
38800 38800 40000 40000 42100
Weapons Sales 1653.00
USD Million
1951 1874 1840 1805 1808
Crude Oil Production 40.00
BBL/D/1K
44 44 44 44 44
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 64.10
percent
62.4 62.4 60.5 60.5 60.1
Government Budget 1.30
percent of GDP
0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 1
Government Budget Value 70.64
EUR Billion
-10 13 -2 31 9
Government Spending 140.47
EUR Billion
142 144 144 143 151
Government Spending to GDP 43.90
percent
43.8 43.8 43.6 43.6 43.2
Government Revenues 419.06
EUR Billion
332 365 325 348 381
Government Debt 1771735.10
EUR Million
1910000 1920000 1940000 1950000 2070000
Fiscal Expenditure 348.42
EUR Billion
342 352 327 317 372
Military Expenditure 43023.00
USD Million
44151 44539 44893 45247 48137
Asylum Applications 10705.00
17420 4300 10900 17500 1900
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 101.80
Index Points
104 103 103 104 100
Services PMI 54.50
Index Points
53.6 54.9 54.6 55.1 53.3
Manufacturing PMI 55.90
54.9 56.3 55.9 56.4 54.9
Composite Pmi 54.80
Index Points
54 55.9 55.5 55.9 53.1
Industrial Production 3.10
percent
3 2.5 2.9 3.2 2.2
Industrial Production Mom 2.60
percent
-0.7 0.9 -0.3 0.5 0.6
Manufacturing Production 3.60
percent
2.8 2.6 3 2.8 2.4
Capacity Utilization 87.70
percent
86.8 86.8 86.7 86.6 86.2
New Orders 109.70
Index Points
115 116 117 119 121
Factory Orders 2.60
percent
-1.7 0.6 -0.6 0.9 0.6
Changes in Inventories -5.90
EUR Billion
-5.1 -5.66 -4.5 -4.38 -4.35
Bankruptcies 1729.00
Companies
1800 1830 1890 1850 1750
Corporate Profits 195.17
EUR Billion
207 211 214 216 235
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -24.70
-10.4 5.1 10.5 18.8 25
Car Production 485300.00
Units
545000 375000 572000 528000 393000
Car Registrations 341308.00
308000 269000 368000 332000 287000
Internet Speed 15298.72
KBps
16496 16819 17001 17090 18203
IP Addresses 38794861.00
IP
42402709 43368195 43415303 44341927 48098428
Mining Production -6.60
percent
1.7 1.6 1.8 1.9 1.9
Steel Production 3900.00
Thousand Tonnes
3280 3010 3900 3770 3050
Competitiveness Index 5.65
Points
5.65 5.65 5.76 5.76 5.87
Competitiveness Rank 5.00
5 5 4 4 3
Corruption Index 81.00
Points
82 82 83 83 84
Corruption Rank 12.00
11 11 10 10 9
Ease of Doing Business 20.00
19 19 18 18 17
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 10.70
Index Points
10.5 10.1 9.8 9.7 9
Retail Sales MoM -2.10
percent
0.1 0.9 -0.4 -0.2 0.2
Retail Sales YoY -1.60
percent
2.1 2.6 2.5 2.4 1.8
Consumer Spending 401.51
EUR Billion
404 409 412 409 428
Disposable Personal Income 491.48
EUR Billion
493 495 498 500 515
Personal Savings 10.00
percent
9.4 9.7 9.4 9.4 9.1
Consumer Credit 239327.00
EUR Million
257000 265000 271000 274000 295000
Private Sector Credit 2894404.00
EUR Million
2910000 2920000 2930000 2940000 3120000
Bank Lending Rate 2.31
percent
2.31 2.31 2.31 2.31 3.06
Gasoline Prices 1.70
USD/Liter
1.61 1.52 1.44 1.36 0.78
Households Debt To Gdp 52.90
percent of GDP
51.2 51.2 50.4 50.4 49.5
Households Debt To Income 82.68
percent
73.8 73.8 71.6 71.6 69.6
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 3.80
percent
1.9 4.2 3.6 3.2 1.1
Housing Index 147.74
Index Points
155 159 162 165 175
Building Permits 28999.00
34050 41700 36500 40500 49700
Construction Pmi 53.00
55.9 54.4 54 54.1 52
Construction Orders -2.50
percent
3.2 3.2 3 2.8 2.7
Home Ownership Rate 51.70
percent
51.4 51.4 51.2 51.2 51
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 29.79
percent
29.79 29.79 29.79 29.79 29.79
Personal Income Tax Rate 47.50
percent
47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5 47.5
Sales Tax Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate 40.21
percent
40.21 40.21 40.21 40.21 40.21
Social Security Rate For Companies 19.43
percent
19.43 19.43 19.43 19.43 19.43
Social Security Rate For Employees 20.78
percent
20.78 20.78 20.78 20.78 20.78
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 6.65
celsius
16.05 4.06 0.73 10.73 8.37
Precipitation 33.58
mm
72.5 55.43 46.33 60.34 60.29