The GfK consumer sentiment indicator for Germany rose to 10.8 heading into February 2019 from an upwardly revised 10.5 in the previous month and easily beating market expectations of 10.3. This was the highest reading since May 2018, mainly supported by increases in income expectations and willingness to buy. The income expectations sub-index gained 6.1 points to 59.9, the highest level since August 2017; and the gauge measuring willingness to buy went up 4.5 points to 57.6, both supported by solid job market and rising wages. Meanwhile, the economic expectations sub-index dropped 3.4 points to 10.7, marking the fourth month of decline in a row, amid rising concerns about the trade conflict between the US, China and the EU, as well as Brexit negotiations. Consumer Confidence in Germany averaged 6.22 Index Points from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 16.80 Index Points in March of 2001 and a record low of -3.50 Index Points in March of 2003.
Consumer Confidence in Germany is expected to be 10.50 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Consumer Confidence in Germany to stand at 9.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Germany GfK Consumer Climate is projected to trend around 8.50 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.