The GfK consumer sentiment indicator for Germany dropped unexpectedly to 10.4 heading into April 2019 from a downwardly revised 10.7 in the previous month and missing market expectations of 10.8. This was the lowest reading since December, as both income expectations and propensity to buy worsened amid uncertainties caused by Brexit and the trade conflict. The income expectations sub-index declined 4.1 points to 55.9; and the gauge measuring consumers' willingness to buy fell 3.4 points to 50.2, the lowest value since December 2016. Meanwhile, the economic expectations sub-index rose 7 points to 11.2, the first increase following five months of decline. Consumer Confidence in Germany averaged 6.26 Index Points from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 16.80 Index Points in March of 2001 and a record low of -3.50 Index Points in March of 2003.
Consumer Confidence in Germany is expected to be 10.50 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Consumer Confidence in Germany to stand at 9.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Germany GfK Consumer Climate is projected to trend around 8.50 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.