French household expenditure on goods declined 1.5 percent from a month earlier in December 2018, following a downwardly revised 0.1 percent drop in the prior month and worse than market expectations of a 0.2 percent fall. The decline is mainly explained by the decrease in consumption of energy (-4.3% vs 0.7% in November) and manufactured goods (-1.9%, after no change in the prior month). In contrast, food consumption rebounded (0.5% vs -0.4%). Considering the fourth quarter as a whole, household spending fell 0.7 percent compared to a 0.3 percent gain in Q3, due to the decrease in consumption of durable manufactured goods. Personal Spending in France averaged 0.12 percent from 1980 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 5.40 percent in June of 1995 and a record low of -5.60 percent in July of 1995.
Personal Spending in France is expected to be -0.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Personal Spending in France to stand at 0.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the France Household Consumption MoM is projected to trend around 0.60 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.