The industrial confidence indicator in France increased to 100 in January 2020 from a downwardly revised reading of 98 in December 2019 but below market expectations of 101. The industrialists' opinion on past production is stable, largely below its long-term average (0 vs -1 in December) and that on personal production prospects rose, above its long-term average (6 vs 4). In addition, the opinion on overall order books recovered slightly, after deterioration in December (-16 vs -18) and that on foreign order books has also strengthened a little (-15 vs -16). However, the balance on general production prospects is stable, above its long-term average (-5 vs -5). Considering employment, the balance of opinion on past increased slightly (-1 vs -2) and expected variations is table (0 vs 0). Business Confidence in France averaged 100.05 points from 1976 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 124 points in June of 2000 and a record low of 66 points in March of 2009. source: INSEE, France

Business Confidence in France is expected to be 102.00 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in France to stand at 105.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the France Business Confidence is projected to trend around 107.00 points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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France Business Confidence

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
100.00 98.00 124.00 66.00 1976 - 2020 points Monthly
SA



Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-10-23 06:45 AM Oct 99 102 102 101
2019-11-21 07:45 AM Nov 100 99 100 101
2019-12-19 07:45 AM Dec 102 102 99 100
2020-01-22 07:45 AM Jan 100 98 101 101
2020-02-25 07:45 AM Feb 100 102


News Stream
2019-12-19
French Industry Morale Stronger than Expected
The industrial confidence indicator in France stood at 102 in December 2019, unchanged from a revised reading in the previous month and above market expectations of 99. The industrialists' opinion on past production reached its highest level since February (9 vs 6 in November) and that on personal production prospects exceeded its long-term average (7 vs 3). However, the balance on general production prospects worsened markedly (-6 vs -2). In addition, the opinion on overall order books deteriorated after a sharp improvement in November (-11 vs -9) and that on foreign order books has also faltered a little (-15 vs -14). Considering employment, the balance of opinion on past and expected variations worsened.

2019-11-21
French Industry Morale Improves Slightly
The industrial confidence indicator in France edged up to 100 in November 2019 from a four-and-a-half-year low of 99 in the previous month, in line with market consensus. The industrialists balance of opinion on overall order books recovered slightly (-14 vs -15 in October) as export order books bounced back (-15 vs -19). Meanwhile, the assessment of the past production declined (2 vs 3), as well as personal production prospects (1 vs 2). General production prospects also worsened and reached the lowest level since August 2014 (-3 vs -1). Considering employment, the balance of opinion on the past variation was steady (at -1) and the one on prospects improved very slightly (-1 vs -2).

2019-10-23
French Industry Morale Falls to Over 4-1/2-Year Low
France's business climate indicator in industry fell to 99 in October 2019 from 102 in the previous month and below market expectations of 102, reaching its lowest level since March 2015. The balance of opinion on overall order books (-15 vs -10 in September) dropped sharply, following two months of improvements; and that on export books (2 vs 3) declined. Manufacturers were less optimistic about their opinion on personal production expectations (-1 vs 3) while the general production prospects for the sector as a whole improved (4 vs 2). Additionally, sentiment deteriorated regarding past activity (13 vs 16). As regards employment, the balance of opinion on past workforce size went down (0 vs 2) while the one on expected workforce size was steady (at 4).

2019-09-24
French Industry Morale Little-Changed
France's business climate indicator in industry stood at 102 in September 2019, little-changed from a revised 103 in the previous month and in line with market expectations. The balance of opinion on overall order books (-11 vs -13 in August) increased further from its lowest level over four years hit in July; and that on export books (-9 vs -10) rose again after reaching a five-year low in June. Manufacturers were more optimistic on the general production prospects for the sector as a whole (4 vs 2), while their opinion on personal production expectations (6 vs 9) and on past activity (4 vs 5) deteriorated. As regards employment, the balance of opinion on past workforce size has bounced back (2 vs 0) while the one on expected workforce size increased a bit again (0 vs -1).

2019-08-27
French Business Sentiment Beats Expectations
The French industrial sentiment indicator rose to 102 in August 2019 from 101 in the previous month and slightly above market forecasts of 101. Industrialists were more optimistic about overall production outlook for the sector as a whole (2 from 0 in July) and on their personal production expectations (8 from 7). Also, the balance on their global order books improved after reaching its lowest in four years (-14 from -16) and the balance of opinion on export books increased for the second consecutive month (-14 from -16). Meanwhile, the balance for the sector past activity lost 3 points (5 from 8). Regarding employment, the balance of opinion on the past evolution was stable (0 from 1) and that of expected workforce size advanced slightly (-1 from -2).

2019-07-24
French Industry Morale Deteriorates in July
The French industrial sentiment indicator fell to 101 in July 2019 from 102 in the previous month and below market expectations of 102, as industrialists are less optimistic about the overall production outlook for the sector as a whole (0 from 2 in June). However, the balance for the sector past activity (7 from 8) and on their personal production expectations (at 6, the same as in June) was virtually stable. Meantime, the balance on their global order books deteriorated (-16 from -13), reaching its lowest level since July 2015, while the balance of opinion on export books has increased (-15 from -17). Regarding employment, the balance of opinion on the past evolution (-1 from 1) and that of expected workforce size (-2 from -1) deteriorated.


France Business Confidence
In France, the Business Climate Indicator measures entrepreneurs’ sentiment about current business situation and expectation about business conditions. The survey covers business leaders of the main economic sectors. The indicator is calculated using factor analysis technique. The index is then calculated in a way to measure the current sentiment in relation to the historic index values of the period 1993-2011. A value over 110 indicates unusually high optimism and a value under 90 indicates unusually high pessimism. The value 100 indicates neutrality.

France Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 100.00 98.00 124.00 66.00 points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 50.40 51.70 58.80 42.70 points [+]
Services PMI 52.40 52.20 62.90 40.20 points [+]
Composite Pmi 52.00 52.10 60.30 41.90 points [+]
Industrial Production 1.30 -0.10 12.10 -19.50 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.30 0.50 4.00 -5.00 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 1.20 0.20 68.90 -27.10 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 83.20 83.40 90.30 71.40 percent [+]
New Orders -11.50 -9.00 25.90 -65.20 points [+]
Bankruptcies 257.00 280.00 811.00 183.00 Companies [+]
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -3.70 -4.80 79.80 -63.90 [+]
Car Registrations 187399.00 178930.00 248642.00 99444.00 [+]
Internet Speed 10756.57 10015.55 10756.57 3070.86 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 29887339.00 27078127.00 29887339.00 14688459.00 IP [+]
Mining Production 6.50 -0.10 24.50 -27.50 percent [+]
Steel Production 1104.81 1169.75 2466.00 643.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Changes In Inventories 2537.00 2459.00 8684.00 -5730.00 EUR Million [+]
Competitiveness Index 78.81 78.01 78.81 5.05 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 15.00 17.00 23.00 15.00 [+]
Car Production 2269600.00 2227000.00 3701870.00 1740220.00 Units [+]
Ease of Doing Business 32.00 32.00 38.00 26.00 [+]
Electricity Production 43365.00 39844.00 61424.00 31896.00 Gigawatt-hour [+]
Corruption Index 72.00 70.00 75.00 63.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 21.00 23.00 26.00 18.00 [+]