Eurozone's retail trade slumped 1.6 percent from a month earlier in December 2018, the largest decline since May 2011, following an upwardly revised 0.8 percent growth in November and matching market expectations. Non-food trade fell 2.7 percent (vs 1.5 percent in November) due to lower sales of mail orders and internet (-6.1 percent vs 2.9 percent), textiles, clothing, footwear (-2.9 percent vs 2.8 percent), electrical goods and furniture (-2.1 percent vs 1 percent), computer equipment, books and other (-1.5 percent vs -0.6 percent) and pharmaceutical and medical goods (-1.2 percent vs 0.8 percent). In addition, sales of food, drinks, tobacco dropped 0.3 percent (vs -0.5 percent in November), while those of automotive fuel increased 0.5 percent, the same as in November. On a yearly basis, retail trade growth eased to 0.8 percent in December from 1.8 percent in November. Retail Sales MoM in the Euro Area averaged 0.09 percent from 1995 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2.80 percent in October of 1999 and a record low of -2.10 percent in May of 2011.
Retail Sales MoM in Euro Area is expected to be 0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in Euro Area to stand at 0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Euro Area Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.