Eurozone's retail trade increased 0.3 percent from a month earlier in October 2018, rebounding from a downwardly revised 0.5 percent decline in September and beating market expectations of a 0.2 percent gain. Sales of food, drinks, tobacco rose 0.6 percent (vs -0.2 percent in September) and those of automotive fuel climbed 1 percent (vs 0.8 percent in September). On the other hand, non-food trade fell 0.1 percent in October, after a 0.7 percent drop in the previous month, due to lower sales of electrical goods and furniture (-1.1 percent vs 0.9 percent) and pharmaceutical and medical goods (-1 percent vs -0.2 percent). Still, sales of computer equipment, books and other went up firmly (1 percent vs -1 percent), followed by mail orders and internet (0.9 percent vs 2.6 percent) and textiles, clothing, footwear (0.8 percent vs -3.8 percent). On a yearly basis, retail trade growth accelerated to 1.7 percent in October from 0.3 percent in September. Retail Sales MoM in the Euro Area averaged 0.09 percent from 1995 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 2.80 percent in October of 1999 and a record low of -2 percent in May of 2011.
Retail Sales MoM in Euro Area is expected to be -0.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in Euro Area to stand at 0.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Euro Area Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 0.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.