The European Central Bank held its benchmark refinancing rate at 0 percent on March 7th and pushed out the timing of its first rate hike in nearly eight years to 2020 at the earliest. Also, the central bank announced a new series of quarterly TLTRO to be launched in September 2019, aiming to preserve favourable bank lending conditions and the smooth transmission of monetary policy; and reaffirmed it will keep reinvesting cash from maturing bonds for an extended period of time. Interest Rate in the Euro Area averaged 1.94 percent from 1998 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 4.75 percent in October of 2000 and a record low of 0 percent in March of 2016.

Interest Rate in Euro Area is expected to be 0.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in Euro Area to stand at 0.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Euro Area Interest Rate is projected to trend around 1.25 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

Euro Area Interest Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-10-25 11:45 AM ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0% 0% 0.0%
2018-12-13 12:45 PM ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0% 0% 0%
2019-01-24 12:45 PM ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0% 0% 0%
2019-03-07 12:45 PM ECB Interest Rate Decision 0% 0% 0% 0%
2019-03-21 08:00 AM ECB General Council Meeting
2019-03-21 09:00 AM ECB Economic Bulletin
2019-03-22 08:15 AM ECB Guindos Speech



ECB Sees Rates Unchanged Until the End of 2019

The European Central Bank held its benchmark refinancing rate at 0 percent on March 7th and pushed out the timing of its first rate hike in nearly eight years to 2020 at the earliest. Also, the central bank announced a new series of quarterly TLTRO to be launched in September 2019, aiming to preserve favourable bank lending conditions and the smooth transmission of monetary policy; and reaffirmed it will keep reinvesting cash from maturing bonds for an extended period of time.

The ECB also cut its GDP growth forecast for 2019 to 1.1 percent from 1.7 percent previously estimated; and that for 2020 was lowered slightly to 1.6 percent from 1.7 percent. The 2021 forecast remains at 1.5 percent.
Meanwhile, policymakers now expect 2019 inflation rate at 1.2 percent (vs 1.8 percent previously estimated). Inflation forecasts for 2020 and 2021 were also revised slightly lower to 1.5 percent (vs 1.6 percent) and 1.6 percent respectively (vs 1.7 percent).

Excerpts from the ECB Introductory Statement:

First, we decided to keep the key ECB interest rates unchanged. We now expect them to remain at their present levels at least through the end of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

Second, we intend to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the asset purchase programme for an extended period of time past the date when we start raising the key ECB interest rates, and in any case for as long as necessary to maintain favourable liquidity conditions and an ample degree of monetary accommodation.

Third, we decided to launch a new series of quarterly targeted longer-term refinancing operations (TLTRO-III), starting in September 2019 and ending in March 2021, each with a maturity of two years. These new operations will help to preserve favourable bank lending conditions and the smooth transmission of monetary policy. Under TLTRO-III, counterparties will be entitled to borrow up to 30% of the stock of eligible loans as at 28 February 2019 at a rate indexed to the interest rate on the main refinancing operations over the life of each operation. Like the outstanding TLTRO programme, TLTRO-III will feature built-in incentives for credit conditions to remain favourable. Further details on the precise terms of TLTRO-III will be communicated in due course.

Fourth, we will continue conducting our lending operations as fixed rate tender procedures with full allotment for as long as necessary, and at least until the end of the reserve maintenance period starting in March 2021.

Today’s monetary policy decisions were taken to ensure that inflation remains on a sustained path towards levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. While there are signs that some of the idiosyncratic domestic factors dampening growth are starting to fade, the weakening in economic data points to a sizeable moderation in the pace of the economic expansion that will extend into the current year. The persistence of uncertainties related to geopolitical factors, the threat of protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets appears to be leaving marks on economic sentiment. Moreover, underlying inflation continues to be muted. The weaker economic momentum is slowing the adjustment of inflation towards our aim. At the same time, supportive financing conditions, favourable labour market dynamics and rising wage growth continue to underpin the euro area expansion and gradually rising inflation pressures. Today’s decisions will support the further build-up of domestic price pressures and headline inflation developments over the medium term. Significant monetary policy stimulus will continue to be provided by our forward guidance on the key ECB interest rates, reinforced by the reinvestments of the sizeable stock of acquired assets and the new series of TLTROs. In any event, the Governing Council stands ready to adjust all of its instruments, as appropriate, to ensure that inflation continues to move towards the Governing Council’s inflation aim in a sustained manner.


ECB | Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
3/7/2019 2:56:16 PM



Euro Area Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 0.00 0.00 4.75 0.00 percent [+]
Money Supply M1 8294556.00 8281201.00 8294556.00 444116.00 EUR Million [+]
Interbank Rate -0.34 -0.34 5.39 -0.39 percent [+]
Money Supply M2 11717261.00 11703716.00 11717261.00 1070365.00 EUR Million [+]
Money Supply M3 12374319.00 12373174.00 12374319.00 1097239.00 EUR Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 66.78 66.07 70.57 34.91 USD Billion [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4669003.00 4674919.00 4674919.00 692641.00 EUR Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 11157541.00 11126123.00 11157541.00 3241298.00 EUR Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate -0.40 -0.40 3.75 -0.40 percent [+]
Lending Rate 0.25 0.25 5.75 0.25 percent [+]
Loan Growth 3.20 3.20 9.90 -0.40 percent [+]


Euro Area Interest Rate

In the Euro Area, benchmark interest rate is set by the Governing Council of the European Central Bank. The primary objective of the ECB’s monetary policy is to maintain price stability which is to keep inflation below, but close to 2 percent over the medium term. In times of prolonged low inflation and low interest rates, ECB may also adopt non-standard monetary policy measures, such as asset purchase programmes. The official interest rate is the Main refinancing operations rate. . This page provides - Euro Area Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Euro Area Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on March of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.00 0.00 4.75 0.00 1998 - 2019 percent Daily




Country Last Previous
Argentina 63.71 Mar/19
Turkey 24.00 Mar/19
Mexico 8.25 Feb/19
Russia 7.75 Feb/19
South Africa 6.75 Feb/19
Brazil 6.50 Feb/19
India 6.25 Feb/19
Indonesia 6.00 Feb/19
China 4.35 Feb/19
Saudi Arabia 3.00 Feb/19
United States 2.50 Feb/19
Canada 1.75 Mar/19
South Korea 1.75 Feb/19
Singapore 1.66 Feb/19
Australia 1.50 Mar/19
United Kingdom 0.75 Feb/19
Euro Area 0.00 Mar/19
France 0.00 Mar/19
Germany 0.00 Mar/19
Italy 0.00 Mar/19
Netherlands 0.00 Mar/19
Spain 0.00 Mar/19
Japan -0.10 Mar/19
Switzerland -0.75 Feb/19


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