Euro Area - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Euro Area including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Euro Area economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.7 percent
Unemployment Rate 8.20 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.5 6.8 percent
Inflation Rate 2.00 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.1 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0 0 0 0 0.75 percent
Balance of Trade 17555.60 23400 27000 30500 29000 25000 EUR Million
Government Debt to GDP 86.70 86 86 85.2 85.2 84.4 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.18
1.16 1.15 1.15 1.14 1.12
Stock Market 3419.78
points
3410 3377 3345 3313 3187
Government Bond 10y -0.43
percent
0.02 0.05 0.07 0.1 0.13
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40
percent
0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.10
percent
2.2 2.1 2 2.2 2.3
GDP 12589.50
USD Billion
13600 13600 14300 14300 14800
GDP Constant Prices 2639.32
EUR Billion
2631 2674 2682 2697 2799
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 552.38
EUR Billion
543 556 557 565 582
GDP per capita 40088.65
USD
40900 40900 41500 41500 42300
GDP per capita PPP 39175.25
USD
39700 39700 40500 40500 41200
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 8.20
percent
8.1 7.9 7.7 7.5 6.8
Unemployed Persons 13290.00
Thousand
13400 13200 13000 12900 12100
Employed Persons 157.98
Million
158 159 159 160 164
Long Term Unemployment Rate 4.10
percent
3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.2
Youth Unemployment Rate 16.60
percent
16.4 16.2 16 15.7 14
Productivity 105.20
Index Points
106 106 107 108 112
Labour Costs 113.70
Index Points
105 116 102 112 120
Wage Growth 1.90
percent
2.2 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.4
Population 340.72
Million
343 343 344 344 346
Full Time Employment 113841.70
Thousand
114600 115000 115400 115900 119000
Employment Change 0.40
percent
0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.6
Labor Force Participation Rate 57.00
percent
58 58 58.4 58.6 60
Part Time Employment 31244.60
Thousand
31600 32100 32400 32600 34200
Retirement Age Men 64.36
64.36 64.36 64.5 64.5 64.75
Retirement Age Women 63.96
63.96 63.96 64.2 64.2 64.5
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.00
percent
2.2 1.9 1.9 1.8 2.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.20
percent
0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.6
Consumer Price Index CPI 103.78
Index Points
104 105 105 106 109
Core Consumer Prices 103.02
Index Points
104 104 104 105 108
Core Inflation Rate 1.00
percent
1.2 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.9
GDP Deflator 109.27
Index Points
110 111 112 112 116
Producer Prices 104.10
Index Points
104 105 105 106 109
Producer Prices Change 4.00
percent
3.2 2.5 2.1 2.2 2.2
Import Prices 100.90
Index Points
102 102 104 105 108
Food Inflation 1.90
percent
1.9 2 2 2.1 2
CPI Housing Utilities 103.62
Index Points
103 104 104 105 108
CPI Transportation 107.22
Index Points
104 105 105 108 109
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0.75
Interbank Rate -0.35
percent
-0.35 -0.35 -0.35 -0.35 0.4
Money Supply M1 8049956.00
EUR Million
8240000 8480000 8660000 8810000 10900000
Money Supply M2 11485662.00
EUR Million
12000000 12200000 12400000 12500000 13800000
Money Supply M3 12129701.00
EUR Million
12900000 13600000 13900000 14100000 15900000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 64.63
USD Billion
72 74 78 80 97
Central Bank Balance Sheet 4633963.00
EUR Million
4840000 4950000 5080000 5150000 6020000
Loans to Private Sector 11024845.00
EUR Million
11170000 11200000 11270000 11320000 11700000
Deposit Interest Rate -0.40
percent
-0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.35
Lending Rate 0.25
percent
0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 1
Loan Growth 3.00
percent
3.2 3.4 3.2 3.2 2.8
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 17555.60
EUR Million
23400 27000 30500 29000 25000
Exports 194631.60
EUR Million
184500 186000 209000 194000 190000
Imports 177076.00
EUR Million
161100 159000 178500 165000 165000
Current Account 31.93
EUR Billion
41.4 44.1 40.2 25.6 34.4
Current Account to GDP 3.50
percent
2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.9
External Debt 13810662.00
EUR Million
14500000 14600000 14700000 14800000 15400000
Capital Flows 6.13
EUR Billion
18.9 48.9 34.2 55.1 41.2
Gold Reserves 504.77
Tonnes
505 505 505 505 505
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 86.70
percent
86 86 85.2 85.2 84.4
Government Budget -0.90
percent of GDP
-1 -1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6
Government Spending 541.83
EUR Billion
544 551 551 554 576
Government Spending to GDP 47.10
percent
46.8 46.8 46.5 46.5 46.8
Government Debt 9685501.30
EUR Million
9890000 9890000 10500000 10500000 11500000
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 1.22
Index Points
1.15 1.11 0.75 1.15 1
Manufacturing PMI 53.30
53.3 55.9 57.4 55.1 53.1
Services PMI 54.70
Index Points
54.7 56.4 56.1 55.4 53.3
Composite Pmi 54.20
Index Points
54.2 57.5 57 56.4 52.7
Industrial Production -0.10
percent
3.4 2.8 2.6 3.2 2.4
Industrial Production Mom -0.80
percent
-0.6 0.5 0.3 -0.4 0.3
Manufacturing Production 0.20
percent
3.2 3.8 3.6 4 3.9
Capacity Utilization 84.10
percent
84.1 84.5 84.1 84 84.5
Changes In Inventories 15.80
EUR Billion
9.4 6.8 4.5 7.1 6
Zew Economic Sentiment Index -7.20
-6.8 5.1 9.5 10.5 25
Car Registrations 1169.19
Thousand
942 962 917 932 992
Mining Production -6.50
percent
1.9 1.6 1.4 1.5 2.1
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -2.90
Index Points
-2.9 -2.2 -1.8 -2 -6.6
Retail Sales MoM -0.20
percent
0.9 -0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5
Retail Sales YoY 1.10
percent
2.4 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.3
Consumer Spending 1418.51
EUR Billion
1421 1438 1444 1450 1505
Disposable Personal Income 1742505.00
EUR Million
1780000 1810000 1830000 1850000 1980000
Personal Savings 11.98
percent
11.5 11.5 11.1 10.7 10.5
Private Sector Credit 13357881.10
EUR Million
13600000 13800000 14000000 14200000 15400000
Bank Lending Rate 2.00
percent
2 2 2 2 2.75
Economic Optimism Index 111.60
111 110 110 109 108
Consumer Credit 676751.23
EUR Million
692000 705000 709000 711000 732000
Households Debt To Gdp 57.80
percent of GDP
57 57 55 55 53.7
Households Debt To Income 94.00
percent
92.5 92.5 89.9 89.9 87.1
Consumer Confidence Price Trends 18.20
Index Points
18.7 18 17.2 16.4 15
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output 2.60
percent
3.6 1.5 2.6 2.8 2.1
Housing Index 110.14
Index Points
112 113 114 115 121
Construction Pmi 51.00
52.2 54.6 54.1 53.8 52.5
Home Ownership Rate 66.40
percent
66 66 65.9 65.9 65.5
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 23.30
percent
23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3
Personal Income Tax Rate 41.50
percent
41.5 41.5 41.5 41.5 41.5
Sales Tax Rate 20.80
percent
20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8 20.8