The economic sentiment indicator for the Euro Area fell for a 12th consecutive month to 107.3 in December 2018 from 109.5 in the previous month, missing market expectations of 108.4. It was the lowest reading since January 2017 mainly due to a steep deterioration in industry sentiment (1.1 vs 3.4 in November). In addition, morale worsened among service providers (12 vs 13.4), constructors (7.2 vs 8.2) and consumers (-6.2 vs -3.9), while confidence among retailers improved slightly (0 vs -0.5). Economic Optimism Index in the Euro Area averaged 100.86 from 1985 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 118.30 in May of 2000 and a record low of 68.50 in March of 2009.
Economic Optimism Index in Euro Area is expected to be 105.10 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Economic Optimism Index in Euro Area to stand at 106.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Euro Area Economic Sentiment Indicator is projected to trend around 105.00 in 2020, according to our econometric models.