The Business Climate Indicator (BCI) for the Euro Area declined to 0.17 in June 2019 from 0.30 in the previous month and below market expectations of 0.23. That was the lowest reading since October 2014, as managers’ production expectations, as well as their views on overall and export order books and the level of stocks deteriorated. Only the assessments of past production improved. Business Confidence in the Euro Area averaged 0 Index Points from 1985 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 1.62 Index Points in January of 2018 and a record low of -3.30 Index Points in March of 2009.
Business Confidence in Euro Area is expected to be 0.25 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in Euro Area to stand at 0.36 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Euro Area Business Climate Indicator is projected to trend around 0.75 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.