Retail sales in Estonia rose 5.6 percent year-on-year in January of 2019, reversing from a revised 0.3 percent fall in the prior month. Sales rebounded for automotive fuel (23.8% vs -5.7% in December); via mail order houses or via internet (1.1% vs -7%) and household goods and appliances, hardware and building materials (1.8% vs -0.4%). In addition, sales of food, beverages and tobacco dropped less than in a month earlier (-6.9% vs -15.7%). Meantime, sales rose softer for: pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetics (1.2% vs 16.5%) while sales fell for textiles, clothing, footwear and leather goods (-0.9% vs 4.9%). On a monthly basis, retail sales tumbled 16 percent, down from a downwardly revised 11.7 percent jump in December. Retail Sales YoY in Estonia averaged 5.21 percent from 1999 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 25 percent in February of 2007 and a record low of -21 percent in February of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in Estonia is expected to be 4.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Estonia to stand at 2.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Estonia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.