Estonian retail trade rose 8.2 percent year-on-year in April 2019, accelerating from a 5.5 percent gain in the prior month. It was the highest gain in retail sales since January of 2016. Sales rose faster for pharmaceutical and medical goods, cosmetics (5.5 percent vs 3.7 percent in March) and in other specialised stores (24.4 percent from 10.8 percent) while those of food, beverages and tobacco (17.5 percent vs -4.0 percent) rebounded sharply. Meantime, sales growth slowed for automotive fuel (2.0 percent vs 7.1 percent); textiles, clothing and footwear (4.2 percent vs 15.4 percent); household goods and appliances, hardware and building materials (9.5 percent vs 12.6 percent) and second-hand goods and in stalls, markets, direct sale (16.7 percent vs 17.2 percent). On a monthly basis, retail trade went up 0.4 percent, after a 13.8 percent jump in March. Retail Sales YoY in Estonia averaged 5.20 percent from 1999 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 24.70 percent in February of 2007 and a record low of -21.60 percent in February of 2009.
Retail Sales YoY in Estonia is expected to be 4.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Estonia to stand at 2.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Estonia Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 2.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.