The IHS Markit Egypt PMI increased to 48.2 in December 2019 from 47.9 in a month earlier, pointing to the fifth straight month of contraction. Both output and new orders declined further, amid reports of subdued demand and liquidity issues. Meanwhile, employment shrank for the second straight month and at a faster rate than in November. At the same time, buying levels rose marginally, despite falling output requirements and a slight reduction in overall input stocks. In terms of prices, cost inflationary pressures remained cool, as a strong exchange rate against the USD helped firms to import goods at cheaper rates. Firms were encouraged to lower selling prices for the second straight month, with the rate of decline solid despite easing from November. Lastly, sentiment improved, with the degree of optimism stronger than the average for 2019, with some firms relating this to new branch openings and the Egyptian pound remaining strong against the US dollar. Manufacturing PMI in Egypt averaged 48.17 points from 2012 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 52.50 points in November of 2013 and a record low of 37.10 points in December of 2012. source: Markit Economics

Manufacturing PMI in Egypt is expected to be 48.80 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Manufacturing PMI in Egypt to stand at 48.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Egypt Non-Oil Private Sector PMI is projected to trend around 49.00 points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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Egypt Non-Oil Private Sector PMI

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
48.20 47.90 52.50 37.10 2012 - 2019 points Monthly

News Stream
Egypt Non-Oil Private Sector Shrinks the Most in Over 2 Years
The IHS Markit Egypt PMI fell to 47.9 in November 2019 from 49.2 in a month earlier, pointing to the fourth straight month of decline and the lowest reading since September 2017. Output contracted for the fourth consecutive month, with the rate of decline strengthened to a solid pace; new orders dropped at a steeper rate; and new export orders shrank solidly despite new contracts with firms in Saudi Arabia, Greece, Morocco and other countries. In addition, employment decreased for the first time in four months, with backlogs went up for the eighth straight month. Meanwhile, purchasing activity grew for the first time since July. In terms of prices, input price inflation eased to one of the weakest rates on record, while selling charges fell at the steepest rate in series history. Looking ahead, confidence decreased slightly, falling below the average, but remained positive.

Egypt Non-Oil Private Sector Shrinks for 3rd Month
The IHS Markit Egypt PMI was at 49.2 in October 2019, down from 49.5 in the prior month, pointing to the third straight month of contraction in non-oil private sector. Output fell for the third month in a row, new orders dropped the most since May and foreign sales shrank again. In addition, buying level declined at the fastest rate since March, albeit only slightly. Meanwhile, firms expanded their workforce for the third month running. On the price front, input cost inflation dropped to the weakest since June as higher cost with salaries was offset by a slowdown in purchase prices. Also, output charge rose the least in four months as some companies offered discounts to drive up sales. Finally, sentiment strengthened from September's near three-year low, as firms were hopeful that future contracts would lead to a rebound in activity.

Egypt Non-Oil Private Sector Shrinks for 2nd Month
The IHS Markit Egypt PMI was at 49.5 in September 2019, up from 49.4 in the prior month, pointing to the second straight month of contraction in non-oil private sector activity. Output fell for the second month in a row, but at a softer rate, with new orders dropping further and purchasing activity being broadly unchanged. At the same time, export sales grew for the third month running, while employment growth was at 13-month high. On the price front, input cost inflation eased, while price discounting at some firms led to a weaker mark-up of selling charges. Finally, sentiment weakened to the lowest since October 2016.

Egypt Non-Oil Private Sector Shrinks Again
The IHS Markit Egypt PMI dropped to 49.4 in August 2019 from 50.3 in the previous month. Output fell again following a slight expansion in July, with new orders declining a bit, amid weakness in domestic demand. Also, buying levels decreased after a solid expansion in July. Meanwhile, exports grew for the second month in a row amid improvements in the external market, as contracts from trading partners in the Middle East and other regions increased. At the same time, employment rose marginally, ending the previous three-month run of decline, while outstanding business advanced moderately. In terms of prices, input price inflation rose the most in ten months, amid a rise in fuel prices due to subsidy cuts in July. Consequently, selling prices went up solidly, and the most since August last year. Lastly, confidence improved to 1-1/2-year high.

Egypt Non-Oil Private Sector Expands for First Time in 3 Months
The IHS Markit Egypt PMI increased to 50.3 in July 2019 from 49.2, signalling the first growth in non-oil private sector since April. Both output and new orders rose for the first time since April, boosted by the introduction of new export contracts. In fact, export sales rose for the first time since last August and at the sharpest pace for over a year-and-a-half, mostly from the Middle East, Africa and Europe. Meanwhile, employment continued to decline, though at a broadly similar pace to that seen in June. On the price front, overall cost inflation was the highest in nine months, mainly due to increased fuel charges after the government cut subsidies that were previously initiated through reform packages. This also caused firms to mark up their selling prices. Finally, sentiment improved from June’s five-month low, as more businesses displayed a positive outlook due to hopes of higher market activity and a fall in the value of the USD.

Egypt Non-Oil Private Sector Contracts at Slower Rate
The Emirates NBD Egypt PMI increased to 49.2 in June 2019 from 48.2. This was the second straight month of contraction in non-oil private sector although at a softer pace, amid weaker falls in output, new orders and new export orders. Also, workforce numbers dropped marginally, easing from a solid decline in May; and firms cut back on buying activity, leading to a slight reduction in inventories. Regarding prices, input cost inflation slowed to the second-lowest since the series began in April 2011, while selling charges were unchanged following two successive months of slight drops. Finally, confidence dropped to a five-month low, with some businesses showing concerned about deteriorating exchange rates.

Egypt Non-Oil Private Sector PMI
In Egypt, the Emirates NBD Egypt Purchasing Managers’ Index measures the performance of the non-oil private sector and is derived from a survey of 450 companies, including manufacturing, services, construction and retail. The Purchasing Managers Index is based on five individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders (30 percent), Output (25 percent), Employment (20 percent), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15 percent) and Stock of Items Purchased (10 percent), with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the non-oil private sector compared to the previous month; below 50 represents a contraction; while 50 indicates no change.

Egypt Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Manufacturing PMI 48.20 47.90 52.50 37.10 points [+]
Industrial Production 2.10 1.10 22.50 -14.50 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom -2.80 6.80 22.10 -17.10 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 4.30 4.70 26.60 -19.80 percent [+]
Internet Speed 1978.30 2172.06 3983.16 389.43 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 4504838.00 4995464.00 5900856.00 406087.00 IP [+]
Steel Production 500.00 515.00 750.00 48.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Ease of Doing Business 114.00 120.00 128.00 106.00 [+]
Competitiveness Index 54.54 53.59 54.54 3.60 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 93.00 94.00 119.00 70.00 [+]
Corruption Index 35.00 32.00 37.00 28.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 105.00 117.00 118.00 41.00 [+]