The economy of Ecuador shrank 7.9 percent year-on-year in August 2019, following a 5.4 percent contraction in the previous month. Output declined further in manufacturing (-3.6 percent vs -2.1 percent in July); wholesale & retail trade (-12.3 percent vs -8.3 percent); and public administration & defense (-19.6 percent vs -0.5 percent). Additionally, output contracted in agriculture, forestry & fishing (-3.3 percent vs 3.2 percent); education (-4.2 percent vs 6 percent); and fishing (-1.8 percent vs 3.4 percent). Also, growth slowed in hotels & restaurants (0.3 percent from 2.7 percent); financial intermediation (0.3 percent from 2.7 percent); and utilities (2.5 percent vs 6.4 percent). Leading Economic Index in Ecuador averaged 7.11 percent from 2003 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 110.99 percent in February of 2003 and a record low of -34.40 percent in January of 2009.
Leading Economic Index in Ecuador is expected to be -0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Ecuador to stand at 0.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Ecuador IAE is projected to trend around 1.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.