The economy of Ecuador shrank 8.2 percent year-on-year in June 2019, after contracting 7.4 percent in the previous month. It was the steepest contraction in economic activity since November 2015, as output declined further in manufacturing (-7.7 percent from -6.2 percent); construction (-46.6 percent from -10 percent); agriculture, forestry & fishing (-3.5 percent from -3.3 percent); hotels & restaurants (-5.7 percent from -1.5 percent); financial intermediation (-5.7 percent from -2.9 percent); and social services & health (-10.8 percent from -8.9 percent). Also, real estate activities shrank 7 percent, faster than a 3.9 percent fall in May. Additionally, growth slowed in mining & quarrying (18.6 percent from 33.1 percent); and electricity, gas & water (3.9 percent from 8.1 percent). Leading Economic Index in Ecuador averaged 7.11 percent from 2003 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 110.99 percent in February of 2003 and a record low of -34.40 percent in January of 2009.
Leading Economic Index in Ecuador is expected to be -0.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Ecuador to stand at 0.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Ecuador IAE is projected to trend around 1.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.