This page has economic forecasts for Ecuador including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Ecuador economy.


Overview Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8 percent
Unemployment Rate 5.20 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.8 percent
Inflation Rate 0.33 0.4 0.8 1 1.2 2 percent
Interest Rate 8.34 8 8 8 7.75 7.5 percent
Balance of Trade -73160.00 30000 100000 40000 -157607 100000 USD Thousand
Government Debt to GDP 32.50 36.05 38.6 38.6 38.6 39 percent
MARKETS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Stock Market 1396.49
points		 1394 1387 1379 1371 1342
Currency 96.91
 96.06 96.48 96.91 97.33 99.06
GDP Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40
percent		 0.9 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.8
GDP Annual Growth Rate 0.90
percent		 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3
GDP 103.06
USD Billion		 104 109 109 109 115
GDP Constant Prices 17848705.00
USD THO		 18221669 18030739 18098587 18080738 18716970
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 4272750.00
USD THO		 4319276 4329028 4332569 4328296 4436682
GDP per capita 5269.62
USD		 5300 5100 5100 5100 5250
GDP per capita PPP 10581.94
USD		 10605 10850 10850 10850 11000
GDP From Agriculture 1411245.00
USD Thousand		 1447640 1461143 1431002 1429591 1486989
GDP From Construction 1557230.00
USD Thousand		 1559389 1576306 1579031 1577474 1601776
GDP From Manufacturing 2074207.00
USD Thousand		 2118031 2096407 2103246 2101172 2175603
GDP From Mining 1606569.00
USD Thousand		 1674965 1613297 1629061 1627454 1720494
GDP From Public Administration 1207271.00
USD Thousand		 1207403 1173744 1224173 1222966 1240223
GDP From Services 1073992.00
USD Thousand		 1090310 1084393 1089028 1087954 1119947
GDP From Transport 1259875.00
USD Thousand		 1269144 1254190 1277513 1276253 1303642
GDP From Utilities 515758.00
USD Thousand		 521056 527660 522979 522463 535220
LABOUR Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.20
percent		 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.6 5.8
Wages 437.44
USD/Month		 447 455 461 465 475
Population 16.78
Million		 17.04 17.1 17.17 17.24 17.83
Wages In Manufacturing 437.00
USD/Month		 452 453 440 442 470
Labor Force Participation Rate 63.20
percent		 63.92 63.76 62.95 63.23 62.78
Minimum Wages 386.00
USD/Month		 375 380 393 395 390
Employment Rate 94.79
percent		 94.81 94.8 94.88 94.87 94.89
PRICES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Inflation Rate 0.33
percent		 0.4 0.8 1 1.2 2
Consumer Price Index CPI 105.45
Index Points		 105 106 106 107 109
Producer Prices 102.99
Index Points		 105 105 105 104 108
Producer Prices Change 0.80
percent		 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4
Inflation Rate Mom -0.05
percent		 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.8
Food Inflation -1.10
percent		 -1.5 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8
CPI Housing Utilities 115.39
Index Points		 114 115 116 117 118
CPI Transportation 107.34
Index Points		 107 107 106 108 110
MONEY Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Interest Rate 8.34
percent		 8 8 8 7.75 7.5
Interbank Rate 1.25
percent		 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25 1.25
Money Supply M1 24080.55
USD Million		 24557 24966 25365 25763 29320
Money Supply M2 51708.73
USD Million		 52132 52460 52750 52997 54100
Foreign Exchange Reserves 2693.01
USD Million		 3239 3490 3520 3507 3500
Loans to Private Sector 15514.50
USD Million		 16018 16229 16389 16509 16837
Deposit Interest Rate 3.50
percent		 3.16 3.16 3.16 2.91 2.66
TRADE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Balance of Trade -73160.00
USD Thousand		 30000 100000 40000 -157607 100000
Exports 1848042.00
USD Thousand		 1900000 1940000 1920000 1829067 1980000
Imports 1921203.00
USD Thousand		 1870000 1840000 1880000 1986674 1880000
Current Account -118.12
USD Million		 -300 80 -110 -55 -150
Current Account to GDP -0.20
percent		 1.1 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8 0.8
Capital Flows 137.24
USD Million		 23.36 -13.94 -8.3 -13.96 -18.88
Remittances 767.30
USD Million		 840 850 845 855 920
Gold Reserves 11.80
Tonnes		 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8
Crude Oil Production 514.00
BBL/D/1K		 514 514 515 515 515
Terrorism Index 1.62
 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7
Foreign Direct Investment 205.01
USD Million		 164 215 185 176 178
GOVERNMENT Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 32.50
percent		 36.05 38.6 38.6 38.6 39
Government Budget -5.90
percent of GDP		 -4.5 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 -4
Government Budget Value -128.33
USD Million		 -164 -161 -160 -160 -160
Government Spending 2776920.00
USD THO		 2774964 2741464 2815797 2813020 2850393
Government Revenues 1651.85
USD Million		 1636 1643 1644 1644 1644
Fiscal Expenditure 1780.18
USD Million		 1804 1804 1804 1804 1804
Military Expenditure 2413.24
USD Million		 2300 2200 2200 2200 2150
BUSINESS Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Business Confidence 1328.00
Index Points		 1350 1370 1390 1410 1535
Changes in Inventories 114332.00
USD THO		 133623 123177 123148 124768 124283
Leading Economic Index 5.50
percent		 2.4 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.4
Internet Speed 6150.50
KBps		 7500 7667 8208 8255 9931
IP Addresses 787799.00
IP		 816352 819696 820312 822116 826162
Steel Production 50.00
Thousand Tonnes		 50.59 50.54 50.41 50.43 50.44
Manufacturing Production 8.30
percent		 4.2 4 3.7 3.8 3.6
Ease of Doing Business 123.00
 122 124 124 124 125
Corruption Index 32.00
Points		 32 32 32 32 32
Corruption Rank 117.00
 117 117 117 117 117
Competitiveness Index 55.85
Points		 56.35 56.35 56.35 56.35 58.85
Competitiveness Rank 86.00
 86 86 86 86 86
CONSUMER Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 41.90
Index Points		 41.15 41.24 40.87 40.98 40.9
Consumer Spending 11170215.00
USD THO		 11244883 11195883 11326598 11315428 11550541
Private Sector Credit 26427.45
USD Million		 27140 27556 27892 28164 29132
Consumer Credit 22202.40
USD Million		 23536 24251 24905 25502 28994
TAXES Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 22.00
percent		 22 22 22 22 22
Personal Income Tax Rate 35.00
percent		 35 35 35 35 35
Sales Tax Rate 12.00
percent		 12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate 21.60
percent		 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6 21.6
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.15
percent		 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15 12.15
Social Security Rate For Employees 9.45
percent		 9.45 9.45 9.45 9.45 9.45
CLIMATE Actual Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 Q3/19 2020
Temperature 21.51
celsius		 21.89 22.42 22.47 22.47 22.4



Ecuador - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook