Retail sales in Cyprus rose 4.2 percent year-on-year in April 2019, following a downwardly revised 0.4 percent fall in the previous month. It was the biggest gain in retail trade since November. Sales rebounded sharply for both non-food products (5 percent vs -2.5 percent in April) and automotive fuel (5.4 percent vs -2.5 percent); and continued to advance for food (3.1 percent vs 1.8 percent). On a monthly basis, retail sales rose 4.2 percent, slowing from a downwardly revised 11.4 percent gain in the prior month. Considering the first four months of 2019, retail sales grew 2.4 percent compared to the same period of 2018. Retail Sales YoY in Cyprus averaged 0.55 percent from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 14.11 percent in February of 2008 and a record low of -32.96 percent in March of 2013.
Retail Sales YoY in Cyprus is expected to be 4.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Cyprus to stand at 4.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Cyprus Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 3.80 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.