Newcastle coal futures, the benchmark for the top consuming region of Asia, fell below the $200 per tonne mark for the first time since January 2022 amid lingering concerns about sluggish demand. Warm winter, particularly in the US and Europe, and lower natural gas prices decreased the reliance on coal for generating power. At the same time, uncertainty about China's reopening has also clouded the short-term outlook for the commodity. On the supply side, the world's biggest coal producer and consumer, China, increased its coal output last year by 9% to a record 4.5 billion tonnes. The country urged miners to ramp up production due to concerns about a fuel shortage on the heels of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Keeping a floor under prices, coal shipments from Australia, the world's second-largest exporter, have been disrupted by heavy rains in the coal-mining states of Queensland and New South Wales, as well as the closure of a key railway line after a collision.
Historically, Coal reached an all time high of 457.80 in September of 2022. Coal - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on March of 2023.
Coal is expected to trade at 187.94 USD/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 213.91 in 12 months time.