Newcastle coal futures rose to above $340 per tonne, and are more than 120% higher in the last 12 months, as demand outpaces supply. La Niña phenomenon, a pattern of weather in the Pacific Ocean that brings wet weather and flooding to Australia has hit coal production for miners including Glencore, BHP and Anglo American. Australia's exports of thermal coal are likely to tumble to 13 ml tonnes this year, down from 183 ml tonnes in 2021. Meanwhile, Indonesia's coal exports are expected to rise but remain below the government’s target. On the demand side, India's imports of thermal coal surged 14% in the first ten months of 2022 and output by state-run Coal India, which accounts for 80% of domestic output, rose 11.5%. Also, increasing energy security concerns in Europe, exacerbated by a ban on Russian coal, forced the reactivation of coal power plants.
Historically, Coal reached an all time high of 457.80 in September of 2022. Coal - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on November of 2022.
Coal is expected to trade at 350.63 USD/MT by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 403.46 in 12 months time.