The Baltic index has been trading below 450 in February, the lowest level since March 2016 with the capesize segment falling to all-time lows amid weak demand for ships and muted activity in China, whose demand accounts for almost 40% of total dry seaborne imports. The dry bulk index, which can be an early indicator of slowing global growth, has plunged by over 83% since early September as an 18-month trade war between the US and China and the coronavirus outbreak weighed on exports and manufacturing, while higher fuel costs under the new International Maritime 2020 regulations led to a significant rise in the cost of operating cargo ships. The last time it fell by 90% in just a few months was in 2008 during the Great Recession.
Historically, Baltic Exchange Dry Index reached an all time high of 11793 in May of 2008. source: Baltic Exchange
Baltic Exchange Dry Index is expected to trade at 517.67 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 581.46 in 12 months time.