The Caixin China General Services PMI fell to 52.5 in December 2019 from a seven-month high of 53.5 in the previous month. New business increased the most since September despite a slowdown in export order growth, while the rate of job creation was only marginal, with a number of companies adopting relatively cautious approaches to hiring amid efforts to contain costs and boost efficiency. Service providers recorded higher backlogs of work at the end of 2019, recovering from November's fall, as greater volumes of new work imparted pressure on capacities. On the price front, input cost inflation eased to a nine-month low, while output charges fell for the first time since September 2018. Finally, business sentiment edged down to the second-lowest on record, amid concerns over ongoing trade tensions, relatively subdued economic growth and staff shortages. Services PMI in China averaged 52.42 Index Points from 2012 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 54.70 Index Points in May of 2012 and a record low of 50 Index Points in July of 2014. source: Markit Economics

Services PMI in China is expected to be 53.00 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Services PMI in China to stand at 52.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Services PMI is projected to trend around 52.20 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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China Services PMI

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
52.50 53.50 54.70 50.00 2012 - 2019 points Monthly

News Stream
China Services Activity Growth at 7-Month High
The Caixin China General Services PMI rose to a seven-month high of 53.5 in November 2019 from 51.1 in the previous month and beating market estimates of 52.7. New orders increased, as export orders accelerated to a four-month high. Meanwhile, the job creation rate dropped to a four-month low, with backlogs falling for the first time since August, albeit only slight. On the price front, input cost inflation slowed for the second consecutive month; and prices charged by service providers rose modestly, with the rate of increase little-changed from the prior three months. Looking ahead, sentiment improved, but was still notably weaker than the historical trend.

China Services Growth Slows to 8-Month Low
The Caixin China General Services PMI unexpectedly fell to 51.1 in October 2019 from 51.3 in the previous month and missing market expectations of 52.8. This was the weakest pace of growth in the service sector since February, as new orders rose the least in eight months and employment growth was at three-month low, with overseas sales expanding modestly. Meantime, outstanding business went up at the fastest rate since February 2017, implying a mismatch between labor supply and demand. In terms of prices, input cost inflation slowed, while output charge increased marginally. Looking ahead, confidence softened to its lowest since July last year.

China Services Grow The Least in 7 Months
The Caixin China General Services PMI fell to a seven-month low of 51.3 in September 2019 from 52.1 in the previous month and below market expectations of 52.9 as new orders and employment growth was offset by higher operating costs. New orders rose the most since January 2018, despite a softer increase in new export work, with a number of firms linking the upturn to new product releases and firmer client demand. In addition, employment growth was the quickest seen since January 2017 while backlogs of work were up for the first time since last December. On the price front, input cost inflation picked up to one-year high due to greater costs for labour, fuel and raw materials. Looking ahead, business optimism in the service sector slipped to its lowest since May.

China Services Growth at 3-Month High
The Caixin China General Services PMI rose to a three-month high of 52.1 in August 2019 from 51.6 in the previous month. New orders rose the most in four months, with new export business increasing solidly, and the rate of job creation was the fastest since June 2018. Meantime, the amount of outstanding work declined slightly. On the price front, operating expenses rose at the strongest pace for three months amid reports of greater purchasing prices and labor costs, while output charges went up the most in 20 months. Looking ahead, business sentiment strengthened to a five-month high.

China Services Growth Slows to 5-Month Low
The Caixin China General Services PMI fell unexpectedly to 51.6 in July 2019 from 52.0 in the previous month and missing market expectations of 52.0. The latest reading pointed to the weakest pace of expansion in the service sector since February, as new order growth slowed, despite a solid rebound in export sales at services companies, while employment rose marginally. On the price front, operating expenses rose further, with the rate of inflation strengthening slightly from the prior month, due to higher costs of materials, fuel and staff. Companies raised their charges slightly, with some indicating that competitive pressures had restricted pricing power. Finally, sentiment remained upbeat overall, with the degree of positive sentiment being unchanged from June.

China Services Growth Slows to 4-Month Low: Caixin
The Caixin China General Services PMI dropped to a four-month low of 52.0 in June 2019 from 52.7 in the previous month and missing market expectations of 52.6. New work from abroad declined for the first time in nine months, with companies citing subdued global demand and tariffs. Still, overall new orders grew slightly faster, supported by fiscal policies that boosted client spending. Meanwhile, employment was broadly unchanged, as greater hiring to meet higher new business was weighed on by the non-replacement of voluntary leavers, while backlogs continued to fall. Price pressures remained historically subdued in June, as services firms saw a moderate increase in operating costs, reportedly linked to higher staff expenses and elevated purchasing activity. Looking ahead, service sector companies remained strongly optimistic.

China Services PMI
The Caixin China General Services PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in over 400 private service sector companies. The index tracks variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. A reading above 50 indicates that the services sector is generally expanding; below 50 indicates that it is generally declining.

China Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 50.20 50.20 59.20 38.80 points [+]
Services PMI 52.50 53.50 54.70 50.00 points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.50 51.80 52.30 47.20 points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 53.50 54.40 62.20 50.80 percent [+]
Industrial Production 6.90 6.20 29.40 -21.10 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.58 0.66 1.32 0.13 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 7.00 6.30 11.40 4.30 percent [+]
New Orders 51.20 51.30 65.10 32.30 points [+]
Changes in Inventories 15873.10 14586.00 15873.10 3.00 CNY HML [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 2659000.00 2456879.00 3060271.00 88416.00 [+]
Car Production 2185380.00 2163000.00 2669100.00 215533.00 Units [+]
Car Registrations 2213089.00 2057000.00 2672300.00 213534.00 [+]
Internet Speed 7583.32 6295.74 7583.32 635.70 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 98862937.00 104032031.00 119094184.00 28818357.00 IP [+]
Mining Production 5.60 5.70 8.10 -3.80 percent [+]
Steel Production 80287.00 81521.00 89091.00 4918.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.50 76.40 78.00 72.90 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 73.90 72.61 73.90 4.55 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 28.00 28.00 34.00 26.00 [+]
Composite Pmi 52.60 53.20 53.70 48.00 points [+]
Cement Production 19935.00 22487.40 23427.00 781.50 Ten Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 41.00 39.00 41.00 21.60 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 80.00 87.00 100.00 40.00 [+]
Corporate Profits 5610070.00 5015100.00 7518710.00 1617.00 CNY Million [+]
Ease of Doing Business 31.00 46.00 99.00 31.00 [+]
Electricity Production 654400.00 589000.00 668200.00 41760.00 Gigawatt-hour [+]