China's retail trade growth stood at 8 percent year-on-year in December 2019, unchanged from the previous month's five-month high and above market expectations of a 7.8 percent increase. Sales rose for most categories: garments (1.9 percent vs 4.6 percent in November); cosmetics (11.9 percent vs 16.8 percent), jewelry (3.7 percent vs -1.1 percent), personal care (13.9 percent vs 17.5 percent), home appliances (2.7 percent vs 9.7 percent), furniture (1.8 percent vs 6.5 percent), telecoms (8.8 percent vs 12.1 percent), oil, oil products (4 percent vs 0.5 percent), automobiles (1.8 percent vs -1.8 percent) and building materials (0.6 percent vs -0.3 percent). In contrast, sales of office supplies fell 11.5 percent, compared to a 4.6 percent advance in November. For full 2019, retail sales also increased 8.0 percent over a year earlier. Retail Sales YoY in China averaged 13.70 percent from 1993 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 37.40 percent in December of 1993 and a record low of 4.30 percent in May of 2003. source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
Retail Sales YoY in China is expected to be 8.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in China to stand at 7.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 8.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.