China's retail sales increased by 8.2 percent from a year earlier in December 2018, following a 8.1 percent gain in the previous month and in line with expectations. Sales rose at a faster pace for garments (7.4 percent vs 5.5 percent in November); furniture (12.7 percent vs 8 percent); personal care (16.8 percent vs 16 percent); and home appliances (13.9 percent vs 12.5 percent). In addition, sales fell less for automobiles (-8.5 pct vs -10 percent); and telecoms (-0.9 percent vs -5.9 percent). Meanwhile, sales slowed for cosmetics (1.9 percent vs 4.4 percent); jewellery (2.3 percent vs 5.6 percent); oil, oil products (5.8 percent vs 8.5 percent); and building materials (8.6 percent vs 9.8 percent). Also, sales declined further for office supplies (-4 percent vs -0.4 percent). Considering the whole year of 2018, retail sales grew 9 percent compared to the same period 2017. Retail Sales YoY in China averaged 13.92 percent from 1993 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 37.40 percent in December of 1993 and a record low of 4.30 percent in May of 2003.
Retail Sales YoY in China is expected to be 8.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in China to stand at 8.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 8.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.