China's retail trade rose by 8.6 percent year-on-year in May 2019, following a 7.2 percent advance in April and beating market expectations of 8.1 percent, as automobiles sales rose for the first time since April 2018 (2.1 percent vs -2.1 percent). Additional upward pressure came from sales of garments (4.1 percent vs -1.1 percent); cosmetics (16.7 percent vs 6.7 percent); jewelry (4.7 percent vs 0.4 percent); home appliances (5.8 percent vs 3.2 percent); furniture (6.1 percent vs 4.2 percent); oil & oil products (3.1 percent vs 0.1 percent); and telecoms (6.7 percent vs 2.1 percent). Meanwhile, sales rose at a softer rate for both personal care (11.4 percent vs 12.6 percent) and office supplies (3.1 percent vs 3.6 percent). At the same time, sales of building materials fell further (-1.1 percent vs -0.3 percent). Considering the January to May period, retail sales advanced 8.1 percent from the corresponding period a year earlier. Retail Sales YoY in China averaged 13.82 percent from 1993 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 37.40 percent in December of 1993 and a record low of 4.30 percent in May of 2003.
Retail Sales YoY in China is expected to be 8.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in China to stand at 8.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 8.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.