The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.5 in December 2019 from 51.8 in the previous month, while markets had forecast an unchanged reading. New orders growth slowed to three-month low, amid a marginal rise in exports, while output expansion remained strong overall. At the same time, purchasing activity rose for the sixth month in a row, though the rate of growth cooled from November, while employment was unchanged as a number of firms mentioned efforts to contain costs and boost efficiency. As a result, the level of outstanding business rose again, albeit at a weaker pace. On the price front, operating expenses rose for the fourth month in a row, albeit marginally, which underpinned a renewed increase in selling prices. Looking ahead, sentiment remained weaker than the historical trend, due to concerns over ongoing trade tensions, environmental protection policies and intense market competition. Manufacturing PMI in China averaged 49.90 from 2011 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 52.30 in January of 2013 and a record low of 47.20 in September of 2015. source: Markit Economics
Manufacturing PMI in China is expected to be 52.20 by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Manufacturing PMI in China to stand at 50.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Caixin Manufacturing PMI is projected to trend around 50.40 in 2020, according to our econometric models.