China's total social financing rose to CNY 1.59 trillion in December 2018 from CNY 1.52 trillion in the previous month and above market consensus of CNY 1.20 trillion. Still, growth of outstanding TSF slowed to a new all-time low of 9.8 percent from 9.9 percent in November, as regulators' continued crackdown on riskier types of financing is slowly shutting off a major source of funding for smaller companies. Total social financing is a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy as it includes off-balance sheet forms of financing such as initial public offerings, loans from trust companies and bond sales. Loans to Private Sector in China averaged 9345.07 CNY HML from 2002 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 37095 CNY HML in January of 2017 and a record low of -974 CNY HML in October of 2005.
Loans to Private Sector in China is expected to be 13994.31 CNY HML by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Loans to Private Sector in China to stand at 14998.87 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Total Social Financing is projected to trend around 14961.30 CNY HML in 2020, according to our econometric models.