China's industrial production increased by 8.5 percent year-on-year in March 2019, following a 5.3 percent rise in the previous month and beating market consensus of a 5.9 percent gain. It was the biggest gain in industrial output since July 2014, as production advanced further for manufacturing (9 percent vs 5.6 percent in Q4), utilities (7.7 percent vs 6.8 percent), and mining (4.6 percent vs 0.3 percent). By industry, output rose at a faster pace for transport equipment (13.6 percent vs 7.9 percent); machinery (15.2 percent vs 8 percent); non-metal minerals (15.4 percent vs 8.8 percent); textiles (9 percent vs 0.2 percent); general equipment (14.1 percent vs 4.4 percent); communication (10.2 percent vs 6 percent); ferrous metals (8.5 percent vs 7.5 percent); chemicals (7.1 percent vs 4.3 percent); and power equipment (7.2 percent vs 6.1 percent). Considering the first quarter of the year, industrial production went up 6.5 percent. On a monthly, factory output rose 1 percent. Industrial Production in China averaged 12.05 percent from 1990 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 29.40 percent in August of 1994 and a record low of -21.10 percent in January of 1990.
Industrial Production in China is expected to be 5.80 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production in China to stand at 5.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Industrial Production is projected to trend around 5.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.