China's industrial production increased 4.8 percent year-on-year in July 2019, the weakest gain since February 2002 and below market consensus of 5.8 percent, on the back of escalating trade dispute with the US and sluggish domestic demand. Production slowed for both manufacturing (4.5% vs 6.2% in June) and mining (6.6% vs 7.3%). Meantime, utilities output growth accelerated (6.9% vs 6.6%). By industry, production advanced at a softer rate for textiles (1.2% vs 1.6%), chemicals (3.8% vs 5.4%), non-metal minerals (8.7% vs 9.5%), ferrous metals (10% vs 13.7%), general equipment (0.7% vs 2.6%), machinery (7.6% vs 11.3%), and communication (6.1% vs 10.4%). Meanwhile, production rose faster for both transport equipment (15.7% vs 14.5%) and power equipment (6.5% vs 5.6%). From January to July, industrial production grew 5.8 percent. Industrial Production in China averaged 11.97 percent from 1990 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 29.40 percent in August of 1994 and a record low of -21.10 percent in January of 1990.
Industrial Production in China is expected to be 5.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production in China to stand at 5.20 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Industrial Production is projected to trend around 5.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.