Average prices of new homes in 70 Chinese cities rose by 6.6 percent year-on-year in December 2019, the slowest pace since July 2018, after a 7.1 percent advance in the previous month. Among China's four biggest cities, Chongqing reported the largest increase (8.1 percent vs 8.4 percent in November), followed by Beijing (4.8 percent vs 5.4 percent), Guangzhou (4.7 percent vs 8.1 percent), Shenzhen (3.6 percent vs 3.3 percent), Shanghai (2.3 percent vs 2.8 percent) and Tianjin (1.4 percent vs 1.6 percent). A series of government curbs and a slowdown in the economy have weighed on the housing market, but renewed fears that prices may rise due to looser credit conditions have prompted policymakers to clamp down on speculative buying. On a monthly basis, new home prices went up 0.3 percent in December, the same as in November. Housing Index in China averaged 4.65 percent from 2011 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 12.60 percent in November of 2016 and a record low of -6.10 percent in March of 2015. source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
Housing Index in China is expected to be 8.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Housing Index in China to stand at 6.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Newly Built House Prices YoY Change is projected to trend around 6.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.