The Chinese economy advanced 6.4 percent year-on-year in the March quarter of 2019, the same pace as in the previous quarter but slightly above market expectations of a 6.3 percent expansion. Industrial output growth accelerated markedly and consumer demand strengthened amid government's pro-growth policies, which helped stabilize sentiments rattled by trade dispute with the US. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy grew 1.4 percent in the first quarter, compared to a 1.5 percent expansion in the previous period and matching market estimates. It was the weakest quarterly growth rate since the first quarter of 2016. GDP Annual Growth Rate in China averaged 9.52 percent from 1989 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 15.40 percent in the first quarter of 1993 and a record low of 3.80 percent in the fourth quarter of 1990.

GDP Annual Growth Rate in China is expected to be 6.30 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Annual Growth Rate in China to stand at 6.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China GDP Annual Growth Rate is projected to trend around 5.60 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

China GDP Annual Growth Rate
width
height
Forecast Data Chart
Trading Economics members can view, download and compare data from nearly 200 countries, including more than 20 million economic indicators, exchange rates, government bond yields, stock indexes and commodity prices.

The Trading Economics Application Programming Interface (API) provides direct access to our data. It allows API clients to download millions of rows of historical data, to query our real-time economic calendar, subscribe to updates and receive quotes for currencies, commodities, stocks and bonds.


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2018-07-16 02:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY 6.7% 6.8% 6.7% 6.7%
2018-10-19 02:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY 6.5% 6.7% 6.6% 6.6%
2019-01-21 02:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 6.5%
2019-04-17 02:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY 6.4% 6.4% 6.3% 6.4%
2019-07-15 02:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY 6.4% 6.3%
2019-10-18 02:00 AM GDP Growth Rate YoY 6.2%



China Q1 GDP Growth Beats Estimates

The Chinese economy advanced 6.4 percent year-on-year in the March quarter of 2019, the same pace as in the previous quarter but slightly above market expectations of a 6.3 percent expansion. Industrial output growth accelerated markedly and consumer demand strengthened amid government's pro-growth policies, which helped stabilize sentiments rattled by trade dispute with the US.

The latest GDP reading remained at its lowest since the Global Financial Crisis, with financial risks mounting from alarming off-balance-sheet borrowings by local governments. The value added of the tertiary industry, which accounted for 57.3 percent of the GDP, was up by 7 percent, expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared with Q1 2018; the industrial sector grew by 6.1 percent and the agricultural by 2.7 percent. Consumption continued to be the mainstay in driving up demand, contributing 65.1 percent to Q1 economic growth.

Industrial output rose by 8.5 percent year-on-year in March, easily beating market consensus of a 5.9 percent increase and accelerating from a 5.3 percent rise in the previous period. It was the biggest gain in industrial output since July 2014, when the reading showed a 9 percent growth. Output expanded at a stronger rate for all components: manufacturing (9 percent vs 5.6 percent in January-February), utilities (7.7 percent vs 6.8 percent), and mining (4.6 percent vs 0.3 percent). By industry, production rose faster for: transport equipment (13.6 percent vs 7.9 percent); machinery (15.2 percent vs 8 percent); non-metal minerals (15.4 percent vs 8.8 percent); textiles (9 percent vs 0.2 percent); general equipment (14.1 percent vs 4.4 percent); communication (10.2 percent vs 6 percent); ferrous metals (8.5 percent vs 7.5 percent); chemicals (7.1 percent vs 4.3 percent); and power equipment (7.2 percent vs 6.1 percent). Considering the first three months of 2019, industrial production expanded 6.5 percent compared to the same period a year earlier.

Retail sales increased by 8.7 percent year-on-year in March, faster than a 8.2 percent gain in the prior period and above market expectations of a 8.4 percent gain. It was the largest rise in retail trade since September last year, as sales advanced further for garments (6.6 percent vs 1.8 percent in January-February); cosmetics (14.4 percent vs 8.9 percent); personal care (16.6 percent vs 15.9 percent); home appliances (15.2 percent vs 3.3 percent); furniture (12.8 percent vs 0.7 percent); oil & oil products (7.1 percent vs 2.5 percent); telecoms (13.8 percent vs 8.2 percent); and building materials (10.8 percent vs 6.6 percent). In contrast, sales fell for both jewelry (-1.2 percent vs 4.4 percent), and office supplies (-4 percent vs 8.8 percent). Considering the first quarter of 2019, retail sales grew by 8.3 percent from the corresponding period a year earlier.

From January to March, fixed-asset investment advanced 6.3 percent from a year earlier, stronger than a 6.1 percent growth in the preceding quarter and in line with market consensus. Public investment rose further (6.7 percent vs 5.5 percent in January-February) while private investment growth eased (6.4 percent vs 7.5 percent). By sector, fixed-asset investment rebounded for both utilities (0.7 percent vs -1.4 percent) and water conservancy, environment and public facilities management (1.0 percent vs -0.4 percent). Meanwhile, fixed-asset investment growth slowed for: mining (14.8 percent vs 41.4 percent); transport, storage and postal industry (6.5 percent vs 7.5 percent); agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry; fishery (2.8 percent vs 4.0 percent), and manufacturing (4.6 percent vs 5.9 percent).

Figures released earlier showed China's exports grew 0.9 percent in the first quarter, while imports shrank 4.4 percent.

On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy  expanded 1.4 percent in the first quarter, compared to a 1.5 percent growth in the previous period and matching  market estimates. This was the weakest pace of quarterly expansion  in three years.



Statistics China l Rida Husna | rida@tradingeconomics.com
4/17/2019 9:59:59 AM



China GDP Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
GDP Growth Rate 1.40 1.50 2.40 1.40 percent [+]
GDP Annual Growth Rate 6.40 6.40 15.40 3.80 percent [+]
GDP 12237.70 11190.99 12237.70 47.21 USD Billion [+]
Gross National Product 896915.00 824828.40 896915.00 679.00 CNY HML [+]
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 346440.80 318083.60 346440.80 80.70 CNY HML [+]
GDP per capita 7329.09 6894.50 7329.09 132.00 USD [+]
GDP per capita PPP 15308.71 14400.90 15308.71 1526.40 USD [+]
GDP Constant Prices 213433.00 900309.00 900309.00 5262.80 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Agriculture 8769.00 64734.00 65467.60 649.30 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Construction 10528.60 61808.00 61808.00 181.90 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Manufacturing 72039.80 305160.00 305160.00 2207.80 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Services 122317.00 469575.00 469575.00 2212.70 CNY HML [+]
GDP From Transport 9552.80 40550.00 40550.00 393.20 CNY HML [+]


China GDP Annual Growth Rate

In China, Gross Domestic Product is divided by three sectors: Primary, Secondary and Tertiary. The Primary Industry includes Farming, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery and accounts for around 9 percent of GDP. The Secondary sector, which includes Industry (40 percent of GDP) and Construction (9 percent of GDP) is the most important. The Tertiary sector accounts for the remaining 44 percent of total output and consist of Wholesale and Retail Trades; Transport, Storage, and Post; Financial Intermediation; Real Estate; Hotel and Catering Services and Others. This page provides - China GDP Annual Growth Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. China GDP Annual Growth Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on May of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
6.40 6.40 15.40 3.80 1989 - 2019 percent Quarterly




Country Last Previous
India 6.60 Dec/18
China 6.40 Mar/19
Indonesia 5.07 Mar/19
Saudi Arabia 3.60 Dec/18
United States 3.20 Mar/19
Spain 2.40 Mar/19
Australia 2.30 Dec/18
South Korea 1.80 Mar/19
United Kingdom 1.80 Mar/19
Netherlands 1.70 Mar/19
Canada 1.60 Dec/18
Switzerland 1.40 Dec/18
Euro Area 1.20 Mar/19
Mexico 1.20 Mar/19
Singapore 1.20 Mar/19
Brazil 1.10 Dec/18
France 1.10 Mar/19
South Africa 1.10 Dec/18
Japan 0.80 Mar/19
Germany 0.70 Mar/19
Russia 0.50 Mar/19
Italy 0.10 Mar/19
Turkey -3.00 Dec/18
Argentina -6.20 Dec/18


Related

Latest