Markets Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Currency 7.13 7.19 7.22 7.25 7.28 7.34
Stock Market (points) 2851.94 2765 2680 2599 2520 2361
Government Bond 10Y (%) 2.71 2.72 2.75 2.77 2.79 2.84

Overview Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -9.80 -2 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -6.80 -4 3.1 3.5 4.4 5.6
Unemployment Rate (%) 6.00 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.1
Inflation Rate (%) 3.30 3.2 2.5 2 2 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.90 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Interest Rate (%) 3.85 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5
Cash Reserve Ratio (%) 11.00 12 12 12 12 12
Balance of Trade (USD HML) 453.39 600 550 130 490 110
Current Account (USD HML) -297.00 520 520 520 520 80.28
Current Account to GDP (%) 1.00 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3
Government Debt to GDP (%) 50.50 55 55 55 54 54
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.80 -4.7 -4.7 -4.7 -4.9 -4.9
Business Confidence (points) 50.80 46.2 51.1 50.5 51 52
Services PMI (points) 44.40 45 50 52 53 52.2
Non Manufacturing PMI (%) 53.20 48 50.8 52 51.5 53
Manufacturing PMI (points) 49.40 42 49 50.1 52 50.7
Consumer Confidence (points) 122.20 120 120 115 115 110
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.32 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 25.00 25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45

GDP Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -9.80 -2 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.3
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -6.80 -4 3.1 3.5 4.4 5.6
GDP (USD Billion) 14200.00 15100 15100 15100 15700 15700
Gross National Product (CNY HML) 988528.90 878977 910818 928308 936380 980293
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (CNY HML) 380771.80 373156 386674 394099 397526 416168
GDP per capita (USD) 7755.00 8730 8730 8730 8091 9200
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 16186.80 18450 18450 18450 16889 19700
GDP From Agriculture (CNY HML) 10186.00 22743 43672 72933 73567 77017
GDP From Construction (CNY HML) 9378.00 28515 48573 73386 74024 77496
GDP From Manufacturing (CNY HML) 64642.00 147867 233958 328208 331061 346587
GDP From Services (CNY HML) 122680.00 253141 399018 552931 557739 583895
GDP From Transport (CNY HML) 7865.00 19843 32047 44300 44685 46781
GDP Constant Prices (CNY HML) 206504.00 451424 723895 1025545 1034463 1082976

Labour Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Unemployment Rate (%) 6.00 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.1
Employed Persons (Tens of Thousands ) 77471.00 77820 77820 77820 77820 77820
Unemployed Persons (Tens of Thousands ) 945.00 920 940 920 920 910
Wages (CNY/Year) 90501.00 92300 92300 92300 94900 94900
Wages in Manufacturing (CNY/Year) 78147.00 80500 80500 80500 84100 84100
Minimum Wages (CNY/Month) 2480.00 2480 2550 2550 2620 2620
Population (Million) 1400.05 1412 1412 1406 1406 1411
Retirement Age Women 50.00 50 50 50 50 50
Retirement Age Men 60.00 60 60 60 60 60

Prices Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Inflation Rate (%) 3.30 3.2 2.5 2 2 1.9
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.90 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 103.30 106 106 107 106 109
Core Consumer Prices (points) 101.10 104 104 103 103 105
Core Inflation Rate (%) 1.10 2 2 1.8 1.8 1.7
GDP Deflator (points) 684.89 707 702 699 699 712
Producer Prices (points) 96.90 102 101 101 100 103
Producer Prices Change (%) -3.10 -2.8 -3 -0.8 -0.1 1.5
Export Prices (points) 98.60 103 101 105 105 108
Import Prices (points) 97.90 105 102 106 106 108
Food Inflation (%) 14.80 10 6.8 4.9 4.9 2.1

Money Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Interest Rate (%) 3.85 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5
Cash Reserve Ratio (%) 11.00 12 12 12 12 12
Interbank Rate (%) 1.55 1.54 1.54 1.54 1.54 1.54
Money Supply M2 (CNY Billion) 209353.38 205805 209400 212600 212600 220250
Central Bank Balance Sheet (CNY HML) 360347.67 350000 350000 350000 350000 370063
Banks Balance Sheet (CNY Billion) 1700.00 1800 1700 1300 1300 1800
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 3091000.00 3100000 3100000 300000 300000 3100000
Loans to Private Sector (CNY HML) 30900.00 1800 25532 1500 53766 1800
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35
Loan Growth (%) 13.10 13 12.7 12.4 12.4 12
Lending Rate (%) 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35 4.35
Reverse Repo Rate (%) 2.20 2.45 2.45 2.4 2.4 2.4
Fixed Asset Investment (%) -10.30 5.3 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.3

Trade Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Balance of Trade (USD HML) 453.39 600 550 130 490 110
Current Account (USD HML) -297.00 520 520 520 520 80.28
Current Account to GDP (%) 1.00 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3
Imports (USD HML) 1549.43 1550 1650 1740 1740 1800
Exports (USD HML) 2002.82 2150 2200 2230 2230 2210
External Debt (USD HML) 20573.00 23000 23000 23000 23000 24500
Terms of Trade (points) 100.72 98.1 99.02 99.06 99.06 100
Foreign Direct Investment (USD HML) 286.55 720 720 1500 1500 1500
Capital Flows (USD HML) 297.00 200 200 620 620 620
Tourist Arrivals (Tens of Thousands ) 3188.00 2000 2000 2000 2000 3000
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 3923.00 3700 3700 3576 3576 3576
Tourism Revenues (CNY Trillion) 5.97 5 5 5 5 6.15
Weapons Sales (USD Million) 1040.00 1060 1060 1060 1060 1060

Government Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Government Debt to GDP (%) 50.50 55 55 55 54 54
Government Budget (% of GDP) -2.80 -4.7 -4.7 -4.7 -4.9 -4.9
Government Budget Value (CNY Billion) -417.70 -200 -250 -450 -250 -450
Government Spending (CNY HML) 220904.10 216486 224328 228636 230624 241439
Government Revenues (CNY HML) 16149.00 19200 19200 13000 13000 14000
Fiscal Expenditure (CNY HML) 18312.00 31500 26500 31000 31000 3200
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 239223.00 300000 300000 300000 300000 300000

Taxes Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 25.00 25 25 25 25 25
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 45.00 45 45 45 45 45
Sales Tax Rate (%) 13.00 10 10 10 10 10
Social Security Rate (%) 48.00 48 48 48 48 48
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 37.00 37 37 37 37 37
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 11.00 11 11 11 11 11

Business Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Business Confidence (points) 50.80 46.2 51.1 50.5 51 52
Services PMI (points) 44.40 45 50 52 53 52.2
Non Manufacturing PMI (%) 53.20 48 50.8 52 51.5 53
Manufacturing PMI (points) 49.40 42 49 50.1 52 50.7
Industrial Production (%) 3.90 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 5
Industrial Production Mom (%) 2.27 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
Manufacturing Production (%) 5.00 5 5 5.5 5.5 5.4
Changes in Inventories (CNY HML) 15873.10 14445 14445 14445 14445 14445
Total Vehicle Sales 2070000.00 2000000 2250000 2550000 2550000 2650000
Car Production (Units) 1587389.00 1450000 1750000 1980000 1980000 2050000
Car Registrations 1536206.00 1700000 1800000 2000000 2000000 2100000
Mining Production (%) 0.30 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.6
Steel Production (Thousand Tonnes) 85033.00 81500 81500 79000 79000 81000
Capacity Utilization (%) 67.30 68 70.2 76.5 76.5 76
Composite Pmi (points) 47.60 45 50 51.4 53 51.6
Cement Production (Ten Thousands of Tonnes) 22347.00 19500 20500 18000 18000 19000
Electricity Production (Gigawatt-hour) 554300.00 660384 630776 681250 651642 722982
Corporate Profits (CNY Million) 1259790.00 2850000 4400000 6750000 6750000 6950000

Consumer Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Consumer Confidence (points) 122.20 120 120 115 115 110
Retail Sales MoM (%) 0.32 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5
Retail Sales YoY (%) -7.50 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.5 7.5
Consumer Spending (CNY HML) 348209.60 341245 353607 360397 363531 380579
Disposable Personal Income (CNY) 42359.00 37681 40468 43842 44223 46297
Personal Savings (%) 36.10 34 34 34 34 34
Bank Lending Rate (%) 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95
Consumer Credit (CNY HML) 445270.35 393708 423925 448108 453260 473202
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.53 0.63 0.6 0.57 0.54 0.51
Households Debt To GDP (% of GDP) 55.20 54 54 55 55 55

Housing Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Housing Index (%) 5.10 7 6.5 6 6 6
New Home Sales (CNY Hundreds of millions) 28291.00 62000 62000 145100 145100 151500


This page has economic forecasts for China including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the China economy.