The politically sensitive food prices rose 17.4 percent year-on-year in December 2019, following a 19.1 percent increase in November, with pork prices rising for the tenth month in a row, but at a softer rate (97.0 percent vs 110.2 percent in November). At the same time, cost continued to rise for edible oil (4.8 percent vs 5 percent), fresh vegetables (10.8 percent vs 3.9 percent), and eggs (6.2 percent vs 10.1 percent). Meantime, prices of fresh fruits fell much faster (-8.0 percent vs -6.8 percent). Food Inflation in China averaged 5.88 percent from 1993 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 40.20 percent in October of 1994 and a record low of -5.50 percent in April of 1999. source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
Food Inflation in China is expected to be 10.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Food Inflation in China to stand at 4.90 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Food Inflation is projected to trend around 2.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.