China's current account surplus narrowed sharply to USD 54.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2018 from USD 62.3 billion in the same period of 2017, a preliminary estimate showed. The goods trade surplus was recorded at USD 139.1 billion and the secondary income surplus at USD 2.5 billion, while the service deficit came in at USD 64.1 billion and the primary income deficit at USD 22.8 billion. In 2018, China's current account surplus decreased to USD 49.1 billion from USD 164.9 billion in 2017. Current Account in China averaged 394.42 USD HML from 1998 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 1330.85 USD HML in the fourth quarter of 2008 and a record low of -341 USD HML in the first quarter of 2018.
Current Account in China is expected to be -138.47 USD HML by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Current Account in China to stand at 120.76 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Current Account is projected to trend around 67.52 USD HML in 2020, according to our econometric models.