The Caixin China General Composite PMI dropped to 52.6 in December 2019 from a 21-month high of 53.2 in the previous month. Manufacturing growth slowed to a three month-low (PMI at 51.5 vs 51.8 in November) and services sector output expanded at a softer rate (PMI at 52.5 vs 53.5 in November). Total new orders increased the least in four months, amid weaker new export growth, and employment rose only slightly. At the same time, unfinished workloads increased at a slightly quicker, albeit only mild, rate. In terms of prices, cost burdens increased at the weakest rate for four months, while selling prices went up at a fractional pace. Looking forward, business confidence remained subdued, but the Phase One trade deal between China and the US should be able to help corporate sentiment recover. Composite Pmi in China averaged 51.46 points from 2013 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 53.70 points in January of 2018 and a record low of 48 points in September of 2015. source: Markit Economics

Composite Pmi in China is expected to be 50.00 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Composite Pmi in China to stand at 51.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Composite Pmi is projected to trend around 51.60 points in 2020, according to our econometric models.

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China Composite Pmi

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
52.60 53.20 53.70 48.00 2013 - 2019 points Monthly

News Stream
China Private Sector Activity Growth at Over 1-1/2-Year High
The Caixin China General Composite PMI increased to 53.2 in November 2019 from 52.0 in the prior month. The latest reading pointed to the strongest expansion in the private sector since February last year, as manufacturing activities rose the most in near three years (PMI at 51.8 vs 51.7 in October), while services output growth slowed to a 7-month low (PMI at 53.5 vs 51.1 in October). New order advanced markedly; overseas sales went up modestly; and the job creation rate increased slightly. Meantime, outstanding business growth eased to three-month low. On the price front, input cost inflation advanced at a modest pace; and output prices increased for the third consecutive month. Finally, confidence remained subdued, with the overall level of positive sentiment edging down since October.

China Composite PMI Rises to 6-Month High
The Caixin China General Composite PMI inched higher to 52.0 in October 2019, the highest since April, from 51.9 in a month earlier. The manufacturing sector expanded the most since February 2017 (PMI at 51.7 vs 51.0 in September), while services growth was at 8-month low (PMI at 51.1 vs 51.3). New order growth was unchanged from September's 19-month high, while new export business increased for the first time in three months. Meanwhile, employment fell slightly after back-to-back monthly increases, with unfinished workloads accumulating at the fastest rate since March 2011. On the price front, average input costs faced by Chinese firms continued to rise, while output charges rose marginally for the second month in a row. Finally, the level of positive sentiment improved. “China’s economy continued to recover in general in October, thanks chiefly to the performance of the manufacturing sector,” said Zhong Zhengsheng, director of macroeconomic analysis at CEBM Group.

China Composite PMI Rises to 5-Month High
The Caixin China General Composite PMI rose to 51.9 in September 2019, the highest in five months, from 51.6 in the previous month. The manufacturing sector expanded by the most since February 2018 (PMI at 51.4 vs 50.4 in August), while services activity growth slowed unexpectedly to a seven-month low (PMI at 51.3 vs 52.1). Total new orders increased at the steepest pace since February 2018, despite a decline in new work from abroad, and employment grew the most since January 2013. At the same time, unfinished workloads increased at the fastest rate for nearly one-and-a-half years, signalling pressure on the operating capacity of Chinese firms. On the price front, cost burdens were up at the quickest pace since November 2018. Finally, business confidence regarding the 12-month outlook for activity weakened to a three-month low.

China Composite PMI Rises to 4-Month High
The Caixin China General Composite PMI rose to 51.6 in August 2019, the highest in four months, from 50.9 in the previous month. Services growth was at three-month high (PMI at 52.1 vs 51.6 in July) and manufacturing production expanded for the first time since May (PMI at 50.4 vs 49.9 in July). Total new order increased the most in four months and the pace of job creation was the fastest since January 2015. In terms of prices, input costs rose at the softest rate for seven months while output prices declined. Finally, Chinese firms were generally optimistic that output would increase over the next year.

China Composite PMI Picks Up in July
The Caixin China General Composite PMI rose to 50.9 in July 2019 from 50.6 in the previous month. Manufacturing output remained in contraction territory (PMI at 49.9 vs 49.4 in June), while services growth slowed to a five-month low (PMI at 51.6 vs 52.0). Total new orders expanded at a faster, albeit still modest, rate during July; and export sales advanced for the second time in three months. Meantime, employment fell for the third month in a row, with backlogs of works rising further. On the price front, average input prices continued to increase at a modest pace, while prices charged by Chinese businesses fell for the first time in six months. Lastly, sentiment improved to a three-month high. "In general, China’s economy showed signs of recovery in July, thanks to large-scale tax and fee cuts, as well as ongoing support from monetary policy and government-driven infrastructure investment," Zhengsheng Zhong, economist at CEBM Group said.

China Composite PMI Falls to 8-Month Low: Caixin
The Caixin China General Composite PMI declined to 50.6 in June 2019, the lowest reading since October 2018, from 51.5 in the previous month. Services growth slowed to a four-month low (PMI at 52.0 vs 52.7 in May) while manufacturing output shrank for the first time since February (PMI at 49.4 vs 50.2). New order growth slowed, with new export orders dropping again and employment declining for the second month in a row. Price pressures remained historically subdued in June. Lastly, sentiment weakened to a record-low for the second consecutive month. “The conflict between China and the US impacted business confidence rather heavily. Although its impact on exports hasn’t been fully reflected in the short-run, the longer term situation doesn’t look optimistic. Future government policies to stabilize economic growth are likely to focus on new types of infrastructure, consumption and high-quality manufacturing.” Zhengsheng Zhong, economist at CEBM Group said.

China Composite Pmi
In China, the Caixin China Composite Output Index tracks business trends across private sector activity, based on data collected from a representative panel of around 400 companies. The index tracks variables such as sales, new orders, employment, inventories and prices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in business activity and below 50 indicates that it is generally declining.

China Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 50.20 50.20 59.20 38.80 points [+]
Services PMI 52.50 53.50 54.70 50.00 points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 51.50 51.80 52.30 47.20 points [+]
Non Manufacturing PMI 53.50 54.40 62.20 50.80 percent [+]
Industrial Production 6.90 6.20 29.40 -21.10 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 0.58 0.66 1.32 0.13 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production 7.00 6.30 11.40 4.30 percent [+]
New Orders 51.20 51.30 65.10 32.30 points [+]
Changes in Inventories 15873.10 14586.00 15873.10 3.00 CNY HML [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 2659000.00 2456879.00 3060271.00 88416.00 [+]
Car Production 2185380.00 2163000.00 2669100.00 215533.00 Units [+]
Car Registrations 2213089.00 2057000.00 2672300.00 213534.00 [+]
Internet Speed 7583.32 6295.74 7583.32 635.70 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 98862937.00 104032031.00 119094184.00 28818357.00 IP [+]
Mining Production 5.60 5.70 8.10 -3.80 percent [+]
Steel Production 80287.00 81521.00 89091.00 4918.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Capacity Utilization 77.50 76.40 78.00 72.90 percent [+]
Competitiveness Index 73.90 72.61 73.90 4.55 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 28.00 28.00 34.00 26.00 [+]
Composite Pmi 52.60 53.20 53.70 48.00 points [+]
Cement Production 19935.00 22487.40 23427.00 781.50 Ten Thousands of Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 41.00 39.00 41.00 21.60 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 80.00 87.00 100.00 40.00 [+]
Corporate Profits 5610070.00 5015100.00 7518710.00 1617.00 CNY Million [+]
Ease of Doing Business 31.00 46.00 99.00 31.00 [+]
Electricity Production 654400.00 589000.00 668200.00 41760.00 Gigawatt-hour [+]