The Caixin China General Composite PMI dropped to 52.6 in December 2019 from a 21-month high of 53.2 in the previous month. Manufacturing growth slowed to a three month-low (PMI at 51.5 vs 51.8 in November) and services sector output expanded at a softer rate (PMI at 52.5 vs 53.5 in November). Total new orders increased the least in four months, amid weaker new export growth, and employment rose only slightly. At the same time, unfinished workloads increased at a slightly quicker, albeit only mild, rate. In terms of prices, cost burdens increased at the weakest rate for four months, while selling prices went up at a fractional pace. Looking forward, business confidence remained subdued, but the Phase One trade deal between China and the US should be able to help corporate sentiment recover. Composite Pmi in China averaged 51.46 points from 2013 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 53.70 points in January of 2018 and a record low of 48 points in September of 2015. source: Markit Economics
Composite Pmi in China is expected to be 50.00 points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Composite Pmi in China to stand at 51.40 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Composite Pmi is projected to trend around 51.60 points in 2020, according to our econometric models.