The Official NBS Manufacturing PMI in China unexpectedly inched higher to 49.5 in January 2019 from 49.4 in the previous month and beating market expectations of 49.3. Still, the latest reading pointed to the second straight month of contraction in the manufacturing sector, due to declines in new orders (49.6 vs 49.7 in December), new export sales (46.9 vs 46.6), buying activity (49.1 vs 49.8) and employment (47.8 vs 48.0). Meanwhile, output grew at slightly faster pace (50.9 vs 50.8). On the price front, a decrease was seen in both input prices (46.3 vs 44.8) and output charges (44.5 vs 43.3). Business Confidence in China averaged 51.90 Index Points from 2005 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 59.20 Index Points in April of 2008 and a record low of 38.80 Index Points in November of 2008.
Business Confidence in China is expected to be 51.60 Index Points by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Business Confidence in China to stand at 50.90 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China NBS Manufacturing PMI is projected to trend around 51.00 Index Points in 2020, according to our econometric models.