China's trade surplus widened to USD 50.98 billion in June 2019 from USD 40.91 billion in the same month a year earlier and above market consensus of USD 44.65 billion. This was the largest trade surplus since December last year, as exports fell 1.3 percent and imports plunged at a faster 7.3 percent. China's trade surplus with the US rose 11 percent to USD 29.92 billion in June from USD 26.9 billion in May, as imports plunged 31.4 percent and exports fell 7.8 percent. Balance of Trade in China averaged 98.47 USD HML from 1981 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 612.86 USD HML in October of 2015 and a record low of -320.02 USD HML in February of 2012.

Balance of Trade in China is expected to be 470.00 USD HML by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Balance of Trade in China to stand at 150.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the China Balance of Trade is projected to trend around 110.00 USD HML in 2020, according to our econometric models.

China Balance of Trade
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-04-12 06:30 AM Balance of Trade $32.64B $4.08B $7.05B $10B
2019-05-08 03:00 AM Balance of Trade $13.84B $32.67B $35B $22B
2019-06-10 03:00 AM Balance of Trade $41.66B $13.77B $20.5B $25B
2019-07-12 07:50 AM Balance of Trade $50.98B $41.73B $44.65B $49B
2019-08-08 03:00 AM Balance of Trade $50.98B $21B
2019-09-08 04:00 AM Balance of Trade $19B
2019-10-14 02:30 AM Balance of Trade $ 34B



China June Trade Surplus Beats Expectations

China's trade surplus widened to USD 50.98 billion in June 2019 from USD 40.91 billion in the same month a year earlier and above market consensus of USD 44.65 billion. This was the largest trade surplus since December last year.

Exports from China fell 1.3 percent year-on-year to USD 212.84 billion in June, compared to market expectations of a 2 percent drop. It was the first full month of higher US tariffs on USD 200 billion of Chinese goods, which were implemented weeks earlier. Meanwhile, Beijing and Washington agreed to restart negotiations amid concerns that the ongoing trade tensions continue to weigh on global growth. Sales of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products went down 0.8 percent to 506,000 tonnes and were down 5.6 percent from May's 536,000 tonnes. Also, exports of coke & semi-coke dropped by 60.1 percent to 0.38 million tonnes and by 56.5 percent from May's 0.88 million tonnes. Exports of steel products fell 23.6 percent to 5.31 million tonnes while those of coal declined 5.9 percent to 0.33 million tonnes. Exports of rare earths slumped 27.3 percent from a year ago. By contrast, exports of rice jumped 81.7 percent to 298,000 tonnes, but were 13.1 percent lower from May's 343,000 tonnes.

Among China's largest trade partners, exports dropped to the US (-7.8 percent), the EU (-3.1 percent) and Australia (-3.4 percent), but rose to ASEAN (12.8 percent), Taiwan (5 percent), South Korea (2.9 percent) and Japan (2.4 percent).

Imports plunged 7.3 percent from a year earlier to USD 161.86 billion in June, much worse than forecasts of a 4.5 percent drop, a further sign of weak domestic demand that could lead Beijing to add more stimulus. Purchases of unwrought copper tumbled 27.2 percent to 326,000 tonnes in June and were down by 9.7 percent from May's 361,000 tonnes. Also, iron ore imports fell 9.7 percent to 75.18 million tonnes, and were down by 10.2 percent from the previous month. In addition, inbound shipments of soybeans slumped 25.1 percent to 6.51 million tonnes and were down by 11.5 percent from May, amid higher tariff on US cargoes and following outbreaks of African swine fever. By contrast, increases were seen in imports of crude oil (up 15.2 percent to 39.58 million tonnes) and coal (up 6.4 percent to 27.10 million tonnes).

Imports fell from the US (-31.4 percent), South Korea (-21.9 percent), Taiwan (-7.4 percent) and Japan (-5 percent), but grew from the EU (8.6 percent), Australia (8.8 percent) and ASEAN (0.4 percent).

China's trade surplus with the US rose 11 percent to USD 29.92 billion in June from USD 26.9 billion in May. For January-June combined, the country's trade surplus with the US widened 5 percent to USD 140.48 billion from USD 133.76 billion in the same period in 2018.

Considering the first half of the year, the trade surplus widened to USD 181.15 billion from USD 135.27 billion in the same period last year

In yuan-denominated terms, China's trade surplus came in at CNY 345.18 billion in June, as exports grew 6.1 percent while imports declined 0.4 percent.


General Administration of Customs | Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com
7/12/2019 11:04:31 AM


News

China May Trade Surplus Larger than Expected
China's trade surplus soared to USD 41.66 billion in May 2019 from USD 23.42 billion in the same month a year earlier and easily beating market consensus of a surplus of USD 20.5 billion. This was the largest trade surplus since December last year, as exports rose unexpectedly while imports dropped the most in nearly three years.
Published on 2019-06-10

China April Trade Surplus Far Below Estimates
China's trade surplus fell to USD 13.84 billion in April 2019 from USD 26.21 billion in the same month a year earlier and missing market consensus of a surplus of USD 35.0 billion. Year-on-year, imports advanced 4.0 percent to USD 179.65, while export fell 2.7 percent to USD 193.49 billion. The trade surplus with the US, China's largest export market, was at USD 21.01 billion in April, little-changed from a surplus USD 20.50 billion in March.
Published on 2019-05-08

China March Trade Surplus Beats Expectations
China's trade balance shifted to a USD 32.64 billion surplus in March 2019 from a USD 5.77 billion deficit in the same month a year earlier and easily beating market estimates of a USD 7.05 billion surplus, as exports soared while imports fell. Considering the first quarter of the year, the trade surplus widened sharply to USD 76.3 billion from USD 54.6 billion in the same period the prior year, as exports grew 1.4 percent and imports shrank 4.8 percent.
Published on 2019-04-12

China Trade Surplus Smallest in 11 Months
China's trade surplus plunged to USD 4.12 billion in February 2019 from USD 32.3 billion in the same month a year earlier, missing market forecasts of USD 26.38 billion. It was the smallest trade surplus since a rare deficit in March 2018, as exports fell the most in three years and imports dropped for a third straight month. The trade surplus with the US, China's largest export market, narrowed sharply to USD 14.72 billion in February from USD 27.30 billion in January.
Published on 2019-03-08



China Trade Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Balance of Trade 509.76 417.30 612.86 -320.02 USD HML [+]
Current Account 490.00 545.99 1330.85 -341.00 USD HML [+]
Current Account to GDP 0.40 1.30 10.10 -3.70 percent [+]
Imports 1618.60 1721.20 1951.30 13.88 USD HML [+]
Exports 2128.36 2138.50 2315.23 12.50 USD HML [+]
External Debt 19652.14 17106.00 19652.14 158.28 USD HML [+]
Terms of Trade 101.86 100.20 118.33 81.75 Index Points [+]
Capital Flows 388.00 157.59 725.40 -1305.58 USD HML [+]
Foreign Direct Investment 697.00 546.09 1349.66 18.32 USD HML [+]
Tourist Arrivals 3054.00 2917.00 3054.00 22.96 Tens of Thousands [+]
Gold Reserves 1864.30 1852.50 1864.30 395.01 Tonnes [+]
Crude Oil Production 3895.00 3780.00 4408.00 1012.00 BBL/D/1K [+]
Tourism Revenues 5.97 5.40 5.97 4.13 CNY Trillion [+]
Terrorism Index 5.11 5.54 6.29 1.47 [+]
Weapons Sales 1040.00 1227.00 2605.00 3.00 USD Million [+]

Exports by Country  |   Exports by Category  |   Imports by Country  |   Imports by Category



China Balance of Trade

Since 1995, China has been recording consistent trade surpluses which from 2004 to 2009 has increased 10 times. In 2018, China posted a trade surplus of USD 351.76 billion, the lowest since 2013, as exports increased 9.9 percent, its strongest performance in seven years, while imports were up 15.8 percent. The biggest trade surpluses were recorded with Hong Kong, the US, the Netherlands, India, the UK, Vietnam, Singapore and Indonesia. China recorded trade deficits with Taiwan, South Korea, Australia, Germany, Brazil and South Africa. This page provides - China Balance of Trade - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. China Balance of Trade - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on July of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
509.76 417.30 612.86 -320.02 1981 - 2019 USD HML Monthly
Current Prices, NSA




Country Last Previous
Argentina 1373.00 May/19
Australia 5745.00 May/19
Brazil 5020.00 Jun/19
Canada 762.30 May/19
China 509.76 Jun/19
Euro Area 23033.60 May/19
France -3278.00 May/19
Germany 20600.00 May/19
India -15280.00 Jun/19
Indonesia 196.00 Jun/19
Italy 5347.00 May/19
Japan -967.11 May/19
Mexico 1030.71 May/19
Netherlands 5579.00 May/19
Russia 11823.00 May/19
Saudi Arabia 131636.00 Mar/19
Singapore 2447.29 Jun/19
South Africa 1737.21 May/19
South Korea 4168.00 Jun/19
Spain -1605300.00 Apr/19
Switzerland 1654.00 May/19
Turkey -1837.83 May/19
United Kingdom -2324.00 May/19
United States -55520.00 May/19


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