Canada - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Canada including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Canada economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 6.00 6 5.9 6 6.1 6.7 percent
Inflation Rate 2.50 2.4 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.75 1.75 2 2.25 percent
Balance of Trade -2771.20 -2911 -1200 -2976 -2975 -3800 CAD Million
Government Debt to GDP 89.60 94 94 93 93 93 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.31
1.34 1.36 1.39 1.42 1.53
Stock Market 16435.46
points
15951 15645 15344 15050 13927
Government Bond 10Y 2.18
percent
2.28 2.43 2.58 2.75 3.54
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.30
percent
0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 2.30
percent
1.9 2.1 2.1 2.2 1.5
GDP Growth Annualized 1.30
percent
1.9 2.1 1.8 2.2 1.9
GDP 1653.04
USD Billion
1800 1800 2000 2000 2160
GDP Constant Prices 1877388.00
CAD Million
1898632 1910436 1916813 1918691 1972057
Gross National Product 2168064.00
CAD Million
2159530 2198299 2213593 2215761 2269205
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 412546.00
CAD Million
406610 416865 421209 421622 430311
GDP per capita 51315.89
USD
51700 51700 52200 52200 53000
GDP per capita PPP 44017.59
USD
44150 44150 44700 44700 45280
GDP From Agriculture 27706.00
CAD Million
28454 28513 28397 28316 29433
GDP From Construction 126443.00
CAD Million
126683 127582 129768 129225 131697
GDP From Manufacturing 184518.00
CAD Million
182620 186978 186881 188577 193009
GDP From Mining 155077.00
CAD Million
154316 155278 158811 158489 160286
GDP From Public Administration 109792.00
CAD Million
111600 111688 112013 112207 115291
GDP From Services 1239165.00
CAD Million
1250272 1260119 1264808 1266427 1300764
GDP From Transport 80294.00
CAD Million
80617 81166 82106 82060 83784
GDP From Utilities 40555.00
CAD Million
41334 40840 40763 41447 42157
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.00
percent
6 5.9 6 6.1 6.7
Employed Persons 18628.00
Thousand
18674 18722 18768 18814 18100
Unemployed Persons 1195.30
Thousand
1202 1300 1216 1219 1340
Part Time Employment 22.70
Thousand
5.68 3.62 3.62 3.65 3.65
Full Time Employment 9.10
Thousand
10.25 14.89 15.84 15.97 16.01
Employment Change 31.80
Thousand
15.13 17.16 17.25 17.33 17.35
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.50
percent
65.5 65.6 65.6 65.6 67
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.70
percent
12 12 11.5 11.71 11.8
Productivity 109.22
Index Points
109 109 109 109 109
Labour Costs 117.22
Index Points
118 119 119 119 123
Wages 24.93
CAD/Hour
24.6 25 24.6 24.93 25.8
Wages in Manufacturing 25.20
CAD/Hour
26.8 27.4 27.9 25.34 30
Minimum Wages 14.00
CAD/Hour
14 14 15 14.54 15
Population 36.96
Million
37.55 37.3 37.77 37.84 37.9
Retirement Age Women 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Job Vacancies 469795.00
510398 507346 500171 527989 526236
Living Wage Family 2690.00
CAD/Month
2750 2750 2830 2834 2800
Living Wage Individual 1970.00
CAD/Month
2048 2057 2047 2038 2028
Non Farm Payrolls 16540.30
Thousand
16637 16000 16754 16811 16000
Adp Employment Change -10.50
Thousand
44.22 19.51 5.07 46.04 30.88
Employment Rate 61.50
percent
61.41 61.7 61.32 61.3 62.2
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.50
percent
2.4 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent
0.12 0.2 0.12 0.12 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 133.60
Index Points
134 134 136 137 140
Core Consumer Prices 131.20
Index Points
132 132 133 133 139
Core Inflation Rate 1.30
percent
1.4 1.6 1.5 1.29 2.2
GDP Deflator 116.90
Index Points
117 117 117 117 117
Producer Prices 118.50
Index Points
115 117 119 119 122
Producer Prices Change 3.10
percent
2.1 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.1
Export Prices 124.70
Index Points
125 120 125 125 126
Import Prices 134.00
Index Points
135 136 135 135 139
Food Inflation 1.40
percent
2.1 2 1.8 1.9 3.4
CPI Housing Utilities 140.50
Index Points
141 142 143 144 149
CPI Transportation 140.50
Index Points
136 139 141 144 145
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent
1.5 1.75 1.75 2 2.25
Interbank Rate 1.92
percent
1.69 1.89 2.2 1.7 3
Money Supply M0 90538.00
CAD Million
91949 92997 94041 95082 105331
Money Supply M1 975476.00
CAD Million
994380 1008383 1022360 1036294 1173368
Money Supply M2 1597414.00
CAD Million
1614732 1626950 1639070 1650931 1757359
Money Supply M3 2317123.00
CAD Million
2336216 2346603 2356865 2366917 2457070
Banks Balance Sheet 5603434.00
CAD Million
5615188 5611379 5613606 5610753 5611341
Central Bank Balance Sheet 110853.00
CAD Million
111326 112000 111372 111373 127000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 81765.00
USD Million
81988 81927 81932 81932 81932
Loans to Private Sector 400366.00
CAD Million
417094 370000 436470 445654 383000
Deposit Interest Rate 0.10
percent
0.34 0.3 0.5 0.58 1.5
Foreign Stock Investment 2180.00
CAD Million
11292 10559 10617 10596 10600
Private Debt to GDP 267.03
percent
265 265 260 260 255
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -2771.20
CAD Million
-2911 -1200 -2976 -2975 -3800
Exports 48344.20
CAD Million
48700 45400 48700 48700 43000
Imports 51115.40
CAD Million
51600 46600 51700 51700 46800
Current Account -19496.00
CAD Million
-18672 -19029 -18281 -19199 -18933
Current Account to GDP -3.00
percent
-2.8 -2.8 -2.5 -2.5 -1.9
External Debt 631.90
CAD Billion
639 623 648 651 628
Terms of Trade 93.10
Index Points
92.71 88.24 92.51 92.49 90.65
Foreign Direct Investment 17792.00
CAD Million
12521 12761 12627 12859 12673
Capital Flows -51.00
CAD Million
8.38 -4 7.21 7.38 -8
Gold Reserves 0.00
Tonnes
-0.05 3 -0.07 -0.06 4
Crude Oil Production 3980.00
BBL/D/1K
4038 4038 4038 4038 4038
Terrorism Index 2.96
2.55 2.3 2.61 2.63 2.3
Tourist Arrivals 1883642.00
2689500 2242600 2284700 2493200 2389500
Weapons Sales 87.00
USD Million
156 175 182 188 143
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.60
percent
94 94 93 93 93
Government Budget -0.90
percent of GDP
-0.8 -0.8 -0.97 -1.03 -0.7
Government Budget Value -10630.00
CAD Million
-254 -129 -145 -161 -158
Government Spending 364860.00
CAD Million
365814 369104 372522 372887 381009
Government Revenues 26700.00
CAD Million
25591 25748 25709 25694 25697
Fiscal Expenditure 34900.00
CAD Million
25845 25850 25854 25855 25854
Military Expenditure 19837.10
USD Million
20084 20557 20576 20594 20304
Asylum Applications 5187.00
Persons
4807 4856 4850 4848 4849
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 63.10
Index Points
60.87 53 61.27 61.2 52
Manufacturing PMI 57.10
54 55 56.91 56.89 52
Industrial Production 5.01
percent
5.69 1.9 5.83 5.84 0.9
Industrial Production Mom 0.43
percent
0.17 0.7 0.12 0.12 0.5
Manufacturing Production 3.50
percent
3.74 0.9 3.76 3.73 0.7
Capacity Utilization 86.10
percent
85.7 85 85.2 85 83
New Orders 60233514.00
CAD THO
59470056 59310635 59352075 59335382 59339941
Changes in Inventories 15288.00
CAD Million
10477 9181 8410 8050 8000
Bankruptcies 239.00
Companies
231 233 233 233 233
Corporate Profits 78757.00
CAD Million
79693 64200 79578 79491 70100
Car Registrations 220264.00
156323 160726 181701 171948 171422
Leading Economic Index 0.10
percent
0.2 0.1 0.18 0.18 0.2
Internet Speed 16205.66
KBps
19160 19635 20107 20573 24998
IP Addresses 15582991.00
IP
16212180 16349225 16540539 16644885 17626330
Steel Production 1145.00
Thousand Tonnes
1123 1114 1110 1107 1104
Mining Production 7.03
percent
6.86 1 6.86 6.86 1.3
Competitiveness Index 5.35
Points
5.28 5.34 5.32 5.33 5.47
Competitiveness Rank 14.00
14 13 14 14 9
Corruption Index 82.00
Points
82 85 82 82 87
Corruption Rank 8.00
8 8 7 7 5
Ease of Doing Business 18.00
22 20 23 23 14
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 54.21
Index Points
54.84 51.9 54.78 54.78 53.8
Retail Sales MoM 2.00
percent
0.37 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.3
Retail Sales YoY 3.60
percent
3.91 4.15 4.29 4.37 4.49
Retail Sales Ex Autos 1.40
percent
0.27 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.3
Consumer Spending 1077010.00
CAD Million
1089667 1097434 1099627 1100704 1132832
Disposable Personal Income 1242592.00
CAD Million
1260421 1269713 1278975 1288222 1379478
Personal Savings 4.40
percent
3.85 4 4.02 3.96 5
Consumer Credit 608673.00
CAD Million
616550 594000 627642 633078 614000
Private Sector Credit 4222270.00
CAD Million
4290645 4344517 4398668 4452742 4983978
Bank Lending Rate 3.70
percent
3.64 3.1 3.81 3.88 3.7
Households Debt To Gdp 100.20
percent of GDP
99.44 99.49 99.21 99.22 98.84
Households Debt To Income 170.20
percent
173 173 171 171 173
Gasoline Prices 1.02
USD/Liter
0.97 0.91 0.86 0.81 0.45
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Building Permits 8200000.00
CAD Thousand
8085364 8102884 8100857 8100893 8100864
Housing Starts 248.10
Thousand
230 231 231 231 231
Housing Index 103.10
Index Points
103 121 103 103 125
Home Ownership Rate 66.50
percent
66.43 65 66.63 66.88 63
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 26.50
percent
26.5 26.5 26 26 26.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00
percent
33 33 33 33 33
Sales Tax Rate 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 5
Social Security Rate 13.81
percent
13.81 13.81 14 14 13
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.23
percent
7.21 7.21 7.18 7.17 6.99
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.58
percent
6.4 6.4 6.54 6.58 6.53
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 32.85
mm
54.09 36.32 25.6 39.23 38.63
Temperature -18.18
celsius
9.76 -11.62 -20.46 7.71 -5.36