Markets Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Stock Market (points) 15527.87 15349 15172 14998 14826 14481
Currency 1.35 1.35 1.36 1.37 1.37 1.38
Government Bond 10Y (%) 0.68 0.71 0.74 0.77 0.8 0.86

Overview Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -2.10 -3 -1.5 0.4 1.1 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -0.90 -4 -3.5 -3 1.1 1.8
GDP Growth Annualized (%) -8.20 -9.5 -4.5 -1 1.5 1.7
Unemployment Rate (%) 13.00 16.8 16 15.5 15 10.5
Inflation Rate (%) -0.20 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.7
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.70 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.75
Balance of Trade (CAD Million) -3250.60 -1600 -800 3200 -1000 3200
Current Account (CAD Million) -11093.00 -15000 -18000 -16000 -15100 -15800
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.60 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2
Government Debt to GDP (%) 89.70 97 97 97 95 95
Government Budget (% of GDP) -0.70 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -2.3 -2.3
Business Confidence (points) 22.80 30 42 48 50 52.5
Manufacturing PMI (points) 40.60 41 44 45 47 51
Consumer Confidence (points) 38.45 45 48 51 52 53
Retail Sales MoM (%) -10.00 -2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4
Building Permits (CAD Thousand) 6046074.00 7800000 7900000 8150000 8180000 8250000
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 26.50 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 33.00 33 33 33 33 33

GDP Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
GDP Growth Rate (%) -2.10 -3 -1.5 0.4 1.1 0.4
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) -0.90 -4 -3.5 -3 1.1 1.8
GDP Growth Annualized (%) -8.20 -9.5 -4.5 -1 1.5 1.7
GDP (USD Billion) 1740.00 1760 1760 1760 1810 1810
GDP Constant Prices (CAD Million) 2057160.00 2009112 2025240 2037478 2123598 2074153
Gross National Product (CAD Million) 2279760.00 2191073 2209101 2245096 2339992 2285508
Gross Fixed Capital Formation (CAD Million) 438786.00 415481 425808 424619 442567 432263
GDP per capita (USD) 51357.80 52000 52000 52000 52800 52800
GDP per capita PPP (USD) 44051.05 42365 45280 45280 42365 43141
GDP From Agriculture (CAD Million) 40966.00 39200 38991 38856 40499 39556
GDP From Construction (CAD Million) 138196.00 136614 137542 138254 144098 140743
GDP From Manufacturing (CAD Million) 185841.00 192237 193721 193257 201426 196736
GDP From Mining (CAD Million) 141143.00 147041 140754 141532 147514 144079
GDP From Public Administration (CAD Million) 128957.00 128109 128919 130339 135848 132685
GDP From Services (CAD Million) 1296191.00 1338770 1353811 1367731 1425542 1392350
GDP From Transport (CAD Million) 77068.00 85869 85183 86911 90585 88475
GDP From Utilities (CAD Million) 43853.00 42107 41670 42358 44148 43120

Labour Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Unemployment Rate (%) 13.00 16.8 16 15.5 15 10.5
Employed Persons (Thousand ) 16184.90 19200 19110 19350 19350 19500
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 2418.30 1290 1390 1410 1370 1280
Part Time Employment (Thousand) -521.90 -100 -10 -10 -10 15
Full Time Employment (Thousand) -1472.00 -300 -40 -20 20 15.26
Employment Change (Thousand) -1993.80 -500 -200 -100 10 30
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 59.80 59.8 65.4 65 65 66
Youth Unemployment Rate (%) 27.20 12 11.9 11.8 11.8 11.3
Labour Costs (points) 112.10 111 113 114 114 118
Productivity (points) 110.55 106 106 106 107 107
Wages (CAD/Hour) 26.93 26.25 26.18 27.27 27.2 28.15
Wages in Manufacturing (CAD/Hour) 26.44 26.42 26.57 28.54 27.88 29.45
Minimum Wages (CAD/Hour) 14.00 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 16
Population (Million) 37.78 37.1 37.81 38.01 38.01 38.36
Retirement Age Women 65.00 65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00 65 65 65 65 65
Job Vacancies 562910.00 558000 561000 560000 550000 570000
Living Wage Family (CAD/Month) 2580.00 2638 2645 2657 2657 2742
Living Wage Individual (CAD/Month) 1930.00 1973 1978 1988 1988 2052
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 17045.90 17050 17070 17080 17100 17500
Adp Employment Change (Thousand) -226.70 -150 -70 10 20 28
Employment Rate (%) 52.10 62.1 62 62.2 62.2 62.2
Wage Growth (%) 3.70 2.3 2.5 3 3 3.2

Prices Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Inflation Rate (%) -0.20 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.7
Inflation Rate Mom (%) -0.70 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI (points) 135.70 137 137 137 138 139
Core Consumer Prices (points) 135.00 137 137 138 138 140
Core Inflation Rate (%) 1.20 2 2.1 2 2 2
GDP Deflator (points) 111.70 109 111 112 112 114
Producer Prices (points) 112.30 118 118 127 117 133
Producer Prices Change (%) -6.00 0.5 0.7 1 1.2 1.5
Food Inflation (%) 3.40 2.2 2 2.2 2.1 2.2
CPI Housing Utilities (points) 146.00 145 146 147 148 150
CPI Transportation (points) 136.70 143 141 144 140 146

Money Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Interest Rate (%) 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.75
Interbank Rate (%) 0.57 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27
Money Supply M1 (CAD Million) 1186022.00 1060000 1073000 1073000 1073000 1105284
Money Supply M2 (CAD Million) 1918181.00 1745000 1755000 1755000 1755000 1812439
Banks Balance Sheet (CAD Million) 7101723.00 5750000 5830000 6200000 6200000 6500000
Foreign Exchange Reserves (USD Million) 87322.00 87800 87000 86000 86000 86000
Central Bank Balance Sheet (CAD Million) 389767.00 119300 120200 125000 125000 125000
Deposit Interest Rate (%) 0.46 0.4 0.4 0.35 0.4 0.6
Private Debt to GDP (%) 263.10 262 262 262 262 258

Trade Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Balance of Trade (CAD Million) -3250.60 -1600 -800 3200 -1000 3200
Current Account (CAD Million) -11093.00 -15000 -18000 -16000 -15100 -15800
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.60 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2
Imports (CAD Million) 35909.00 51600 51000 51200 51300 51300
Exports (CAD Million) 32658.40 50000 50200 50500 50300 50800
Capital Flows (CAD Million) -48.00 -7 -10 -8 -8 -8
Foreign Direct Investment (CAD Million) 10352.00 11400 10500 10500 10500 11391
Gold Reserves (Tonnes) 0.00 0 0 0 4 4
Crude Oil Production (BBL/D/1K) 4552.00 4550 4650 4800 4800 4900
Tourist Arrivals 760461.00 1150000 1800000 1900000 1750000 2100000

Government Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Government Debt to GDP (%) 89.70 97 97 97 95 95
Government Budget (% of GDP) -0.70 -3.8 -3.8 -3.8 -2.3 -2.3
Government Budget Value (CAD Million) -14794.00 1035 -1100 1036 1036 1036
Government Spending (CAD Million) 424726.00 408735 412055 415520 433083 422999
Government Revenues (CAD Million) 25790.00 25993 25300 25300 25300 25977
Government Debt (CAD Billion) 685.45 705 705 705 705 705
Military Expenditure (USD Million) 21352.00 21600 21600 21600 21600 21700

Taxes Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 26.50 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 33.00 33 33 33 33 33
Sales Tax Rate (%) 5.00 5 5 5 5 5
Social Security Rate (%) 14.09 14.09 14.09 14.09 14.09 14.09
Social Security Rate For Companies (%) 7.37 7.37 7.37 7.37 7.37 7.37
Social Security Rate For Employees (%) 6.72 6.72 6.72 6.72 6.72 6.72

Business Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Business Confidence (points) 22.80 30 42 48 50 52.5
Manufacturing PMI (points) 40.60 41 44 45 47 51
Industrial Production (%) -5.17 -5 -3 -1.5 0.5 1.3
Industrial Production Mom (%) -5.22 -3 -1.5 -0.5 0.3 0.6
Manufacturing Production (%) -8.27 -3 -2 -1 -0.5 1.8
Capacity Utilization (%) 81.20 82 83.2 83 82.5 83
Bankruptcies (Companies) 175.00 245 238 230 230 230
Corporate Profits (CAD Million) 88863.00 82000 81500 80100 80100 80100
Car Registrations (Units) 126412.00 180000 160000 115000 190000 125000
Leading Economic Index (%) -7.20 -2.5 -0.5 0.2 0.3 0.4
Manufacturing Sales (%) -9.20 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.5
Mining Production (%) -4.11 -7 -5.5 -4 -3 -1
Wholesale Sales (%) -2.20 -3.2 0.7 0.9 1.1 1

Consumer Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Consumer Confidence (points) 38.45 45 48 51 52 53
Retail Sales MoM (%) -10.00 -2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4
Retail Sales YoY (%) -8.40 -5.5 -3.7 0.9 2.5 3.5
Retail Sales Ex Autos (%) -0.40 -2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4
Consumer Spending (CAD Million) 1159845.00 1128849 1140274 1151750 1200432 1172481
Disposable Personal Income (CAD Million) 1319436.00 1220605 1253388 1270657 1324366 1293529
Personal Savings (%) 6.10 1.9 2.1 3 3 3
Consumer Credit (CAD Million) 623183.00 606623 617044 621878 643624 633071
Private Sector Credit (CAD Million) 4594213.00 4600000 4680000 4680000 4680000 4730098
Bank Lending Rate (%) 2.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45 3.45
Households Debt To Income (%) 173.68 175 175 175 175 175
Gasoline Prices (USD/Liter) 0.71 0.52 0.5 0.47 0.45 0.43

Housing Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021
Building Permits (CAD Thousand) 6046074.00 7800000 7900000 8150000 8180000 8250000
Housing Starts (Thousand units) 171.27 130 160 190 213 213
Housing Index (points) 104.10 103 103 103 103 103
Home Ownership Rate (%) 66.30 63 63 63 63 64


This page has economic forecasts for Canada including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Canada economy.