Canada - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Canada including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Canada economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 6.00 6 5.9 6 6.1 6.7 percent
Inflation Rate 2.80 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2 percent
Interest Rate 1.50 1.5 1.75 1.75 2 2.25 percent
Balance of Trade -114.30 -200 -1200 100 100 -3800 CAD Million
Government Debt to GDP 89.60 94 94 93 93 93 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.29
1.3 1.31 1.32 1.33 1.36
Stock Market 16224.13
points
16248 16140 16033 15929 15513
Government Bond 10Y 2.43
percent
2.37 2.42 2.46 2.51 2.72
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.70
percent
0.6 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.90
percent
2.4 2.1 2.7 2.6 1.5
GDP Growth Annualized 2.90
percent
1.9 2.1 1.8 2.2 1.9
GDP 1653.04
USD Billion
1800 1800 2000 2000 2160
GDP Constant Prices 1891153.00
CAD Million
1907949 1910436 1928484 1940323 1972057
Gross National Product 2195332.00
CAD Million
2171400 2196396 2227189 2252411 2267240
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 412095.00
CAD Million
409070 417201 422278 422809 430658
GDP per capita 51315.89
USD
51700 51700 52200 52200 53000
GDP per capita PPP 44017.59
USD
44150 44150 44700 44700 45280
GDP From Agriculture 28043.00
CAD Million
28603 28528 28578 28772 29448
GDP From Construction 127847.00
CAD Million
127348 127585 130656 131171 131700
GDP From Manufacturing 183616.00
CAD Million
183685 186759 188279 188390 192783
GDP From Mining 157686.00
CAD Million
156180 157001 159836 161786 162065
GDP From Public Administration 110787.00
CAD Million
112115 111811 113077 113667 115417
GDP From Services 1248678.00
CAD Million
1256402 1260757 1272835 1281144 1301423
GDP From Transport 80940.00
CAD Million
81019 81139 82466 83044 83756
GDP From Utilities 39144.00
CAD Million
41532 40815 40834 40162 42132
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.00
percent
6 5.9 6 6.1 6.7
Employed Persons 18630.50
Thousand
18645 18675 18713 18752 18100
Unemployed Persons 1195.20
Thousand
1201 1300 1214 1217 1340
Part Time Employment -92.00
Thousand
18.94 0.72 3.74 3.86 3.83
Full Time Employment 40.40
Thousand
7.64 16.96 15.2 15.26 15.34
Employment Change -51.60
Thousand
11.38 12.08 12.08 12.08 12.08
Labor Force Participation Rate 65.30
percent
65.5 65.6 65.6 65.6 67
Youth Unemployment Rate 10.90
percent
12 12 11.5 11.03 11.8
Productivity 109.99
Index Points
110 111 111 111 114
Labour Costs 116.80
Index Points
117 119 118 118 123
Wages 24.86
CAD/Hour
24.6 25 24.6 24.87 25.8
Wages in Manufacturing 25.47
CAD/Hour
26.8 27.4 27.9 25.39 30
Minimum Wages 14.00
CAD/Hour
14 14 15 14.54 15
Population 36.96
Million
37.55 37.3 37.77 37.84 37.9
Retirement Age Women 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Job Vacancies 462280.00
459784 459626 459661 459653 459655
Living Wage Family 2690.00
CAD/Month
2750 2750 2830 2834 2800
Living Wage Individual 1970.00
CAD/Month
2048 2057 2047 2038 2028
Non Farm Payrolls 16584.00
Thousand
16675 16000 16797 16855 16000
Adp Employment Change 13.60
Thousand
44.22 19.51 5.07 46.04 30.88
Employment Rate 61.40
percent
61.39 61.7 61.25 61.21 62.2
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.80
percent
2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.2
Inflation Rate Mom -0.10
percent
0.1 0.2 0.12 0.12 0.2
Consumer Price Index CPI 134.20
Index Points
134 134 136 137 140
Core Consumer Prices 131.90
Index Points
132 132 133 133 139
Core Inflation Rate 1.70
percent
1.4 1.6 1.5 1.55 2.2
GDP Deflator 117.60
Index Points
118 118 118 118 118
Producer Prices 119.40
Index Points
118 121 122 125 130
Producer Prices Change 6.60
percent
5.1 5.3 4.8 4.4 3.1
Export Prices 128.10
Index Points
129 120 129 129 126
Import Prices 138.70
Index Points
139 136 140 140 139
Food Inflation 1.60
percent
2.1 2 1.8 1.9 3.4
CPI Housing Utilities 141.20
Index Points
142 143 143 144 149
CPI Transportation 141.30
Index Points
137 139 141 144 145
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 1.50
percent
1.5 1.75 1.75 2 2.25
Interbank Rate 1.99
percent
1.99 2.24 2.24 2.49 2.74
Money Supply M0 91480.00
CAD Million
92161 93229 94295 95358 105821
Money Supply M1 980632.00
CAD Million
989415 1002675 1015804 1028887 1157202
Money Supply M2 1611709.00
CAD Million
1621364 1636160 1650636 1664881 1795147
Money Supply M3 2336698.00
CAD Million
2342618 2354829 2366658 2378281 2483220
Banks Balance Sheet 5552930.00
CAD Million
5696876 5699250 5697957 5697817 5697243
Central Bank Balance Sheet 113929.00
CAD Million
114821 112000 115407 115420 127000
Foreign Exchange Reserves 81238.00
USD Million
81272 81273 81266 81267 81267
Loans to Private Sector 402786.00
CAD Million
408146 370000 423358 430589 383000
Deposit Interest Rate 0.10
percent
0.1 0.35 0.35 0.6 0.85
Foreign Stock Investment 12650.00
CAD Million
11380 10684 10749 10729 10733
Private Debt to GDP 267.03
percent
265 265 260 260 255
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -114.30
CAD Million
-200 -1200 100 100 -3800
Exports 51265.40
CAD Million
51400 45400 51800 51800 43000
Imports 51379.70
CAD Million
51600 46600 51700 51700 46800
Current Account -15880.00
CAD Million
-15520 -16262 -15772 -16534 -16213
Current Account to GDP -3.00
percent
-2.8 -2.8 -2.5 -2.5 -1.9
External Debt 631.90
CAD Billion
639 623 648 651 628
Terms of Trade 92.40
Index Points
92.5 88.24 91.81 91.76 90.65
Foreign Direct Investment 11674.00
CAD Million
12552 12942 12742 12952 12803
Capital Flows 0.00
CAD Million
7.66 -4 6.46 6.72 -8
Gold Reserves 0.00
Tonnes
-0.05 3 -0.07 -0.06 4
Crude Oil Production 4237.00
BBL/D/1K
4128 4122 4123 4122 4122
Terrorism Index 2.96
2.55 2.3 2.61 2.63 2.3
Tourist Arrivals 4496465.00
2689500 2242600 2284700 2493200 2389500
Weapons Sales 87.00
USD Million
156 175 182 188 143
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 89.60
percent
94 94 93 93 93
Government Budget -0.90
percent of GDP
-0.8 -0.8 -0.97 -1.03 -0.7
Government Budget Value 1110.00
CAD Million
1200 1190 1174 1156 1162
Government Spending 366209.00
CAD Million
367710 370044 374621 375730 381980
Government Revenues 27132.00
CAD Million
26386 26260 26228 26210 26216
Fiscal Expenditure 23809.00
CAD Million
25185 25042 25054 25054 25054
Military Expenditure 19837.10
USD Million
20084 20557 20576 20594 20304
Asylum Applications 5187.00
Persons
4807 4856 4850 4848 4849
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 61.90
Index Points
61.47 53 61.38 61.37 52
Manufacturing PMI 56.80
56.8 55 56.81 56.8 52
Industrial Production 3.60
percent
3.91 1.9 3.82 3.82 0.9
Industrial Production Mom 0.53
percent
0.19 0.7 0.13 0.13 0.5
Manufacturing Production 2.32
percent
2.1 0.9 2.02 1.99 0.7
Capacity Utilization 85.50
percent
85.7 85 85.2 85 83
New Orders 58632960.00
CAD THO
59760784 59617760 59648809 59633968 59638036
Changes in Inventories 14112.00
CAD Million
11661 10016 8984 8447 8248
Bankruptcies 196.00
Companies
216 220 218 219 219
Corporate Profits 76692.00
CAD Million
77678 64200 77455 77314 70100
Car Registrations 179587.00
156323 160726 181701 171948 171422
Leading Economic Index 0.00
percent
0.2 0.1 0.18 0.18 0.2
Internet Speed 16205.66
KBps
19160 19635 20107 20573 24998
IP Addresses 15582991.00
IP
16212180 16349225 16540539 16644885 17626330
Steel Production 1020.00
Thousand Tonnes
1048 1060 1067 1071 1076
Mining Production 6.38
percent
6.66 1 6.67 6.67 1.3
Competitiveness Index 5.35
Points
5.28 5.34 5.32 5.33 5.47
Competitiveness Rank 14.00
14 13 14 14 9
Corruption Index 82.00
Points
82 85 82 82 87
Corruption Rank 8.00
8 8 7 7 5
Ease of Doing Business 18.00
22 20 23 23 14
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 55.77
Index Points
54.84 51.9 54.78 54.78 53.8
Retail Sales MoM 0.30
percent
0.38 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.3
Retail Sales YoY 3.70
percent
4.05 4.23 4.34 4.41 4.51
Retail Sales Ex Autos 0.90
percent
0.26 0.33 0.34 0.34 0.3
Consumer Spending 1083677.00
CAD Million
1093897 1096510 1105759 1111853 1131878
Disposable Personal Income 1248172.00
CAD Million
1258350 1267401 1276470 1285571 1375230
Personal Savings 3.40
percent
3.52 3.72 3.67 3.55 5
Consumer Credit 615914.00
CAD Million
620864 594000 633720 639887 614000
Private Sector Credit 4285348.00
CAD Million
4327700 4392008 4455222 4518068 5136871
Bank Lending Rate 3.70
percent
3.7 3.95 3.95 4.2 4.45
Households Debt To Gdp 100.20
percent of GDP
99.44 99.49 99.21 99.22 98.84
Households Debt To Income 171.31
percent
173 173 171 171 173
Gasoline Prices 1.04
USD/Liter
1.06 1 0.95 0.89 0.71
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Building Permits 8208497.00
CAD Thousand
8181839 8201741 8200026 8199985 8199964
Housing Starts 200.99
Thousand units
230 231 231 231 231
Housing Index 103.30
Index Points
103 121 103 103 125
Home Ownership Rate 66.50
percent
66.43 65 66.63 66.88 63
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 26.50
percent
26.5 26.5 26 26 26.5
Personal Income Tax Rate 33.00
percent
33 33 33 33 33
Sales Tax Rate 5.00
percent
5 5 5 5 5
Social Security Rate 13.81
percent
13.81 13.81 14 14 13
Social Security Rate For Companies 7.23
percent
7.21 7.21 7.18 7.17 6.99
Social Security Rate For Employees 6.58
percent
6.4 6.4 6.54 6.58 6.53
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 32.85
mm
54.09 36.32 25.6 39.23 38.63
Temperature -18.18
celsius
9.76 -11.62 -20.46 7.71 -5.36