The Fed and ECB will be deciding on monetary policy in the coming week, but no changes are expected. Elsewhere, the UK general election and EU leaders Summit will be in the spotlight, alongside: US inflation rate and retail trade; UK monthly GDP figures, industrial production and trade balance; Eurozone industrial output; Germany investor morale and foreign trade; China trade balance, consumer and producer prices; Japan final Q3 GDP, Tankan business survey and machinery orders; Australia business and consumer morale; and India industrial output.
12/6/2019 6:34:37 PM
The US Federal Reserve will probably hold interest rates at current levels when it meets for the last time in 2019 on Wednesday, with investor focus turning to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference and the FOMC economic projections. Regarding the US economic calendar, the consumer price inflation rate will probably pick up to a seven-month high of 2.0 percent in November, while retail sales should continue to grow at a solid pace. Other notable publications are producer and foreign trade prices, business inventories, the government's budget statement, and the final readings of third-quarter nonfarm productivity and labor costs.
Other important reports to follow in America include Canada housing starts and building permits; Mexico inflation and industrial production; and Brazil economic activity and retail sales. Also, central banks in Brazil and Peru will be deciding on monetary policy.
In the UK, all eyes will be on the outcome of the December 12th general election, with recent opinion polls suggesting the ruling Conservative party will win a comfortable majority. Politics aside, the ONS will be publishing monthly GDP figures, alongside industrial production, construction output and trade balance while the Bank of England will release its Financial Stability Report.
Elsewhere in Europe, ECB President Christine Lagarde will chair her first monetary policy meeting on Thursday, with markets anticipating no changes in policy guidance. Meanwhile, central banks in Turkey and Russia are expected to slash interest rates, while the Swiss National Bank is seen ending the year with no changes in monetary policy. On the economic data front, the Eurozone industrial production will be in the spotlight, alongside Germany investor morale, foreign trade, current account and wholesale prices; France and Italy industrial output; Ireland third-quarter GDP data; Sweden inflation rate; Switzerland unemployment rate and producer and import prices; and Turkey industrial activity and current account.
China's trade balance will be keenly watched, with markets forecasting a 1 percent rise in exports and a 1.8 fall in imports, amid ongoing trade tensions with the US. The country will also be publishing consumer and producer prices, foreign direct investment and monetary indicators. Inflation is likely to hit a new eight-year high in November, while producer prices will probably continue to fall.
Meanwhile in Japan, investors will focus on the final estimate of third-quarter GDP growth, with forecasts pointing to an upward revision to the preliminary reading. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan's quarterly tankan business sentiment survey is expected to show a further deterioration in big manufacturers’ confidence. Other important releases include current account, Eco Watchers Survey and machinery orders. In Australia key data to follow include NAB business confidence, Westpac consumer confidence, and house price index. In India, investors will turn their attention to consumer and wholesale prices, industrial output, and trade balance.
Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: New Zealand manufacturing sales and business NZ PMI; Taiwan trade balance; South Korea jobless rate; Malaysia industrial production; Singapore retail sales and unemployment; and the Philippines interest rate decision and trade balance.