Week Ahead

It will be a busy week in US with 2nd estimate of Q3 GDP growth, personal income and outlays, PCE prices, durable goods and new and pending home sales. Here are some other key events: UK consumer morale; Germany retail sales, consumer and business confidence; China NBS PMIs and industrial profits; Japan industrial output, retail sales and consumer confidence; India Q3 GDP growth; and Australia private capital expenditure.

Next week, the US will be publishing the second estimate of third-quarter GDP, with market forecasts pointing to 1.9 percent growth, down from the previous period's 2.0 percent, as positive contributions from household consumption, government spending and exports are likely to be partially offset by a decline in business investment and an increase in imports. Other key events are: personal income and outlays, PCE price index, durable goods orders, new and pending home sales, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, Chicago PMI, Case-Shiller home prices, and advance estimates of wholesale inventories and goods trade balance. The US market will be closed on November 28th for Thanksgiving Day.

Elsewhere in America, the central bank of Mexico is due to publish its monetary policy meeting minutes, alongside inflation report. Other key releases to follow include Canada third-quarter GDP figures and current account; Mexico final third-quarter GDP, unemployment and trade balance; and Brazil jobless rate and current account.

In the UK, the GfK Consumer Confidence should remain at one of the lowest levels in over six years as EU extension of Brexit deadline until January 31st failed to support sentiment and as the 12th December general election nears. Other data to follow include Bank of England's monetary indicators, CBI Distributive Trades, UK Finance mortgage approvals and Nationwide housing prices.

Elsewhere in Europe, several countries will publish their final estimates of third-quarter GDP figures, including France and Italy, while others, such as Switzerland and Sweden, will release preliminary readings. Other important data include: the Eurozone business survey and flash inflation rate; Germany retail sales, unemployment rate, and business and consumer morale; France households sentiment; Italy consumer and industry morale; Spain industry sentiment; Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators; and Turkey trade balance and manufacturing confidence.

In China, industrial profits are due and the NBS will be publishing its manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs, with market forecasts pointing to another month of contraction in factory activity.  Meanwhile in Japan, updated figures for industrial output, retail sales and consumer confidence will be in the spotlight following October's sales tax rise. Other important releases for Japan include: Tokyo inflation, unemployment rate and housing starts. The Bank of Korea will meet to set monetary policy, but no changes are expected. Also are due: consumer and business confidence, industrial production and retail sales.

In Australia, construction work done, private capital expenditure, new home sales and private sector credit fill the calendar.  In India all eyes will be on third-quarter GDP data, as growth is expected to slow further to over six-year low.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: Hong Kong trade balance; Taiwan final third-quarter GDP and industrial production; Singapore inflation rate and manufacturing output; Thailand industrial production; and New Zealand retail sales, trade balance, ANZ business confidence and building permits.

Local elections in Hong Kong, which are set to be held on Sunday, will be keenly watched, after the economy fell into recession for the first time in a decade.


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
11/23/2019 12:30:16 PM



 


Friday November 22 2019 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun Bank Manufacturing PMI Flash NOV 48.6 48.4
12:30 AM
JP
Jibun Bank Services PMI Flash NOV 50.4 49.7
07:00 AM
DE
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q3 0.5% 0.3%
07:00 AM
DE
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q3 0.1% -0.2%
08:00 AM
NG
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 2.28% 2.12% ®
08:00 AM
NG
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q3 9.23% 3.02%