Week Ahead

Next week important releases include: US inflation rate, industrial output and retail sales; UK Q3 GDP data, trade balance, jobless rate, inflation and retail sales; Eurozone industrial production and trade balance; Germany Q3 GDP growth; China industrial output, retail sales and fixed asset investment; Japan Q3 GDP growth and machinery orders; Australia consumer and business morale, and employment figures; and India inflation and industrial output. Central banks in New Zealand, the Philippines and Mexico will be deciding on monetary policy.

In the US, the consumer price inflation rate will probably hold steady at 1.7 percent in October; while the core rate should remain unchanged at one-year high of 2.4 percent. In addition, industrial output is seen contracting for the second straight month in October, led by another decline in manufacturing production; while retail sales are seen rebounding from its biggest drop in seven months. Other notable publications are producer and foreign trade prices; business inventories; NY Empire State Manufacturing Index; and the government's budget statement.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will testify on the economic outlook before the Joint Economic Committee on Wednesday, and will submit identical remarks to the House Budget Committee on Thursday.

Elsewhere in America, the central bank of Mexico will be deciding on interest rates while Chile's central bank will be publishing monetary policy meeting minutes. Other key figures include Canada new housing prices; Mexico industrial production; and Brazil retail sales.

The UK will release third-quarter GDP figures, with markets anticipating a 0.4 percent growth despite ongoing Brexit uncertainty. Other important releases include: industrial production, foreign trade, construction output, inflation rate, unemployment, wage growth and retail trade. Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone will publish a second estimate of third-quarter GDP growth while several countries, including Germany, will release their first estimates. The bloc’s largest economy is expected to contract for the second straight quarter, sliding into technical recession due to manufacturing and export weakness. Investors will also keep an eye on the Eurozone industrial production and trade balance; Germany ZEW economic sentiment index and wholesale prices; France third-quarter jobless rate; Italy industrial production and foreign trade; Norway and Sweden inflation rates; and Turkey unemployment rate and industrial output.

Voters in Spain go to the polls for the second time this year on Sunday to elect a new parliament, but the outcome could be inconclusive. The latest opinion polls show that Pedro Sanchez's socialist party is expected to become the largest party, but is also likely to fall short of an absolute majority.

China will be releasing updated figures for industrial output, retail sales, fixed asset investment and house price index. Industrial production is seen expanding at a softer pace in October, amid trade tensions with the US and weak domestic demand. Meanwhile in Japan, investors will focus on the preliminary estimate of third-quarter GDP, with forecasts pointing to a slowdown in economic growth. Other important releases for Japan include: current account, machinery orders, Eco Watchers Survey, and the final reading of September's industrial production. In Australia, notable publications include NAB business confidence, Westpac consumer confidence, wage price index, and employment figures. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will deliver its latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with markets anticipating a 25 bps rate cut, bringing borrowing costs to the lowest on record.

Other key data for the Asia-Pacific region include: India consumer and wholesale prices, industrial output and trade balance; South Korea unemployment rate; Malaysia Q3 GDP growth; Indonesia trade balance; and the Philippines interest rate decision.

Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
11/8/2019 6:46:52 PM