Week Ahead

Next week the US will be publishing retail sales, industrial production, housing data and flash Michigan's consumer sentiment. Elsewhere, other important releases include: UK unemployment, wage growth, retail sales and inflation; Eurozone foreign trade; Germany investor morale; China Q2 GDP growth industrial production, retail sales and fixed asset investment; Japan trade balance; and Australia employment figures.

In the US, the preliminary reading of Michigan's consumer sentiment should point to a slight improvement in morale during July; while figures from the Census Bureau will probably show housing starts and building permits falling in June from the previous month's levels. In addition, retail sales are expected to advance for a fourth consecutive month in June; while industrial output growth is set to slow, after rising the most in six months in May. Other notable publications are foreign trade prices, business inventories, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index, NAHB Housing Market Index, and overall net capital flows.

Elsewhere in America, important releases include Canada inflation rate, ADP employment change, retail sales, and foreign stock investment; Brazil IBC-BR economic activity, business confidence, and federal tax revenues. Meantime, the central bank of Chile will be deciding on monetary policy.

In the UK, figures from the ONS are expected to show unemployment to hold steady at its lowest since 1974 and wage growth to accelerate from the the previous month's seven-month low. Investors will also keep an eye on the country’s retail trade and inflation data. Elsewhere in Europe, key economic indicators are the Eurozone construction output, trade balance and current account; Germany ZEW Economic Sentiment Index and producer prices; Italy foreign trade and factory orders; Turkey unemployment rate, retail sales and government debt; and Switzerland trade balance, and producer and import prices. The National Bank of Ukraine will probably cut interest rates when it meets on Thursday.

All eyes are on China's Q2 GDP growth, as markets forecasts point to the weakest economic expansion since 2009, amid ongoing trade tensions with the US. The country will also be releasing industrial output, retail sales, house price index and fixed asset investment. Meanwhile in Japan investors will focus on trade balance, with markets expecting a fall in both exports and imports; June's consumer price inflation; and Reuters Tankan index. The Reserve Bank of Australia will be publishing the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting. On the economic data front, important releases include Westpac leading index and employment figures. Other key data for the Asia-Pacific region include: New Zealand Q2 consumer inflation and Services NZ PSI; India trade balance and wholesale prices; Singapore trade balance; Hong Kong unemployment rate and business confidence; and interest rate decisions from South Korea and Indonesia.

The South African Reserve Bank will deliver its latest monetary policy decision, with markets anticipating a 25bps cut in interest rates.


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
7/12/2019 5:06:13 PM



 


Friday July 12 2019 Actual Previous
12:00 AM
SG
GDP Growth Rate YoY Adv Q2 0.1% 1.1% ®
12:00 AM
SG
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Adv Q2 -3.4% 3.8%
04:00 AM
MY
Unemployment Rate MAY 3.3% 3.4%
04:30 AM
JP
Industrial Production MoM Final MAY 2.0% 0.6%
04:30 AM
JP
Industrial Production YoY Final MAY -2.1% -1.1%
06:00 AM
DE
Wholesale Prices MoM JUN -0.5% 0.3%
06:00 AM
DE
Wholesale Prices YoY JUN 0.3% 1.6%
07:00 AM
ES
Inflation Rate YoY Final JUN 0.4% 0.8%
07:50 AM
CN
Balance of Trade JUN $50.98B $41.73B ®
07:50 AM
CN
Exports YoY JUN -1.3% 1.1%
07:50 AM
CN
Imports YoY JUN -7.3% -8.5%
08:00 AM
FR
IEA Oil Market Report
08:00 AM
GB
BoE Vlieghe Speech
09:00 AM
EA
Industrial Production YoY MAY -0.5% -0.4%
09:00 AM
EA
Industrial Production MoM MAY 0.9% -0.4% ®
12:00 PM
IN
Industrial Production YoY MAY 3.1% 4.3% ®