Week Ahead

Next week the final estimate of US Q1 GDP growth will be keenly watched, alongside personal income and outlays, and housing data. Elsewhere, important releases include: UK final Q1 GDP growth, consumer sentiment and current account; Eurozone flash inflation rate and business survey; Germany consumer and business morale; Japan industrial output, retail sales and jobless rate; and central bank decisions in New Zealand, Thailand and Mexico. Investors will also react to trade negotiations as US President Trump will be meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping at the upcoming G20 summit in Japan.

Next week the US will be publishing the final estimate of first-quarter GDP, with market forecasts suggesting economic growth was 3.2 percent, slightly stronger than previously thought. Other notable publications are personal income and outlays, PCE price index, durable goods orders, wholesale inventories, new and pending home sales, Case-Shiller home prices, Chicago Fed National Activity Index, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, Chicago PMI, and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Trade negotiations will also be keenly watched, amid renewed hopes that a deal between Washington and Beijing could be reached after President Donald Trump announced he will be meeting with his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, at the upcoming G20 summit in Japan.

Other key publications for America include: Canada monthly GDP and BoC Business Outlook Survey; Mexico interest rate decision and unemployment rate for Brazil and Mexico.

The UK will publish final figures of fourth-quarter GDP growth and business investment, alongside current account. Preliminary estimates from the ONS pointed to an acceleration in Britain’s economy, with business investment expanding, after shrinking for four consecutive quarters. Furthermore, June’s Gfk consumer confidence is expected to fall from a seven-month high. UK Finance mortgage approvals and CBI distributive trades will also be in the spotlight. 

Elsewhere in Europe, flash estimates of June’s inflation will be published for the Eurozone’s largest economies, with the bloc’s inflation expected to be steady at a 14-month low in June. In Germany, Ifo business climate will probably remain at 2014 lows and the Gfk consumer confidence will continue to drop. Market players will also keep an eye on the Euro Area business survey; Spain final GDP growth and business sentiment; Switzerland KOF economic barometer; and Turkey balance of trade and manufacturing confidence index.

The Bank of Japan will be publishing the minutes of its last monetary policy meeting and the summary of opinions from board members. Other key publications for Japan include: retail sales, Tokyo inflation, unemployment rate, May’s preliminary industrial output and housing starts. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will deliver its latest monetary policy decision, but no changes are expected. On the economic data front, important releases include trade figures, ANZ business confidence and ANZ Roy Morgan consumer confidence. 
Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: South Korea consumer and business confidence, industrial production and retail sales; India current account; Australia private sector credit; Thailand interest rate; Vietnam Q2 GD2 growth; and Taiwan unemployment rate. 


Stefanie Moya | stefanie.moya@tradingeconomics.com
6/22/2019 8:56:47 AM



 


Friday June 21 2019 Actual Previous
12:30 AM
JP
Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Flash JUN 49.5 49.8
03:00 AM
TH
Balance of Trade MAY $0.18B $-1.46B
07:00 AM
CH
Current Account Q1 CHF 17.2B CHF15.2B
07:15 AM
FR
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash JUN 52.0 50.6
07:15 AM
FR
Markit Services PMI Flash JUN 53.1 51.5
07:30 AM
DE
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash JUN 45.4 44.3
07:30 AM
DE
Markit Services PMI Flash JUN 55.6 55.4
08:00 AM
EA
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash JUN 47.8 47.7
08:00 AM
EA
Markit Services PMI Flash JUN 53.4 52.9
08:30 AM
ES
Balance of Trade APR €-1.61B €-2.35B
12:30 PM
CA
Retail Sales MoM APR 0.1% 1.3% ®
01:45 PM
US
Markit Services PMI Flash JUN 50.7 50.9
01:45 PM
US
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash JUN 50.1 50.5
01:45 PM
US
Markit Composite PMI Flash JUN 50.6 50.9
02:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales MoM MAY 2.5% 0% ®
02:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales MAY 5.34M 5.21M ®
04:00 PM
US
Fed Brainard Speech
04:00 PM
US
Fed Mester Speech
EA
Euro Summit
EA
European Council Meeting
Sunday June 23 2019 Actual Previous
02:00 PM
US
Fed Harker Speech
11:30 PM
AU
RBA Gov Lowe Speech
Monday June 24 2019 Actual Previous
04:00 AM
ID
Balance of Trade MAY $0.21B $-2.5B ®
04:30 AM
NL
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Final Q1 0.5% 0.5%
07:00 AM
TR
Business Confidence JUN 102.5 98.9
07:00 AM
TR
Capacity Utilization JUN 77.1% 76.3%
08:00 AM
DE
Ifo Business Climate JUN 97.4 97.9
08:00 AM
DE
Ifo Current Conditions JUN 100.8 100.7 ®
08:00 AM
DE
Ifo Expectations JUN 94.2 95.2 ®
10:55 AM
IL
Unemployment Rate MAY 3.6% 3.8%
12:30 PM
US
Chicago Fed National Activity Index MAY -0.05 -0.48 ®
02:30 PM
US
Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index JUN -12.1 -5.3
09:00 PM
KR
Consumer Confidence JUN 97.5 97.9
11:50 PM
JP
BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
Tuesday June 25 2019 Actual Previous
06:45 AM
FR
Business Confidence JUN 102 104
07:05 AM
AU
RBA Bullock Speech
07:15 AM
EA
ECB Guindos Speech
10:00 AM
GB
CBI Distributive Trades JUN -42 -27
12:45 PM
US
Fed Williams Speech
01:00 PM