Week Ahead

The Federal Reserve, Bank of England and Bank of Japan will be deciding on interest rates next week, but no changes are expected. Other important releases include: US flash Markit PMIs, housing data and current account; UK inflation and retail trade; Eurozone flash consumer confidence; Germany investor morale; Japan trade balance, inflation and flash Nikkei Manufacturing PMI; and Australia Q1 house prices. Central bank decisions in Norway, Brazil, Taiwan, Indonesia and the Philippines will also be in the spotlight.
Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com 6/14/2019 4:48:20 PM
The Federal Reserve will probably leave its monetary policy unchanged when it meets on Wednesday, with investors turning their attention to the latest FOMC Economic Projections for further clues on monetary policy. Markets are pricing in two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by the end of this year amid a slowdown in jobs growth and muted inflation pressures. Regarding the US economic calendar, notable publications are flash Markit PMIs, housing starts and building permits, existing home sales, current account, overall net capital flows, NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, NAHB Housing Market Index, and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.

Elsewhere in America, key reports to follow include Canada inflation, retail sales, ADP employment change, and foreign stock investment; Brazil business confidence; and Argentina Q1 GDP growth. The Central Bank of Brazil will be deciding on monetary policy, but interest rates are expected to be held at 6.5 percent.

The Bank of England will also deliver its latest monetary policy decision, with markets anticipating no changes in borrowing costs. On the economic data front, important releases include Britain's consumer and producer price indexes, retail trade, public sector net borrowing and CBI industrial trends orders.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone's flash consumer sentiment is forecast to deteriorate further in June and flash Markit PMIs are expected to point to a further contraction in factory activity, while Germany's investor morale will probably worsen. Market players will also keep an eye on the Eurozone first-quarter wages data, construction activity, trade balance and current account; and Turkey unemployment and consumer confidence. The Norges Bank will meet to decide on interest rates, with market consensus pointing to a 25bps rate hike.

The Bank of Japan will decide on monetary policy, but no changes are expected. Also, the country will publish May’s trade figures with markets anticipating a fall in exports and a rise in imports, inflation rate and flash Nikkei manufacturing PMI. The core consumer price index is projected to slow to 0.8 percent, well below the central bank’s target. The Reserve Bank of Australia and Reserve Bank of India will be releasing the minutes of their last monetary policy meetings. Other key data for Australia include Q1 house price index, Westpac leading index, and flash CommBank PMIs.

Other highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include: China house price index; New Zealand Q1 GDP growth and current account; South Korea producer inflation; Thailand trade balance; and interest rate decisions from Taiwan, Indonesia and the Philippines.





 


Friday June 14 2019 Actual Previous
04:00 AM
MY
Unemployment Rate APR 3.4% 3.4%
04:30 AM
JP
Industrial Production MoM Final APR 0.6% -0.6%
06:00 AM
DE
Wholesale Prices MoM MAY 0.3% 0.6%
06:00 AM
DE
Wholesale Prices YoY MAY 1.6% 2.1%
06:45 AM
FR
Inflation Rate YoY Final MAY 0.9% 1.3%
07:00 AM
CN
Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY MAY 5.6% 6.1%
07:00 AM
CN
Industrial Production YoY MAY 5% 5.4%
07:00 AM
CN
Retail Sales YoY MAY 8.6% 7.2%
07:30 AM
SE
CPIF YoY MAY 2.1% 2.0%
07:30 AM
SE
Inflation Rate MoM MAY 0.3% 0.7%
08:00 AM
FR
IEA Oil Market Report
09:00 AM
IT
Inflation Rate YoY Final MAY 0.8% 1.1%
10:00 AM
EA
ECB Lautenschläger Speech
10:30 AM
RU
Interest Rate Decision 7.5% 7.75%
12:00 PM
RU
Monetary Policy Report
12:30 PM
US
Retail Sales MoM MAY 0.5% 0.3% ®
12:30 PM
US
Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM MAY 0.5% 0.5% ®
12:55 PM
GB
BoE Gov Carney Speech
01:15 PM
IN
Balance of Trade MAY $-15.36B $-15.3B
01:15 PM
US
Industrial Production YoY MAY 2% 0.9%
01:15 PM
US
Industrial Production MoM MAY 0.4% -0.4% ®
02:00 PM
US
Business Inventories MoM APR 0.5% 0%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Inflation Expectations Prel JUN 2.6% 2.9%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan 5 Year Inflation Expectations Prel JUN 2.2% 2.6%
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Expectations Prel JUN 88.6 93.5
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel JUN 97.9 100
02:00 PM
US
Michigan Current Conditions Prel JUN 112.5 110
EA
EcoFin Meeting
Sunday June 16 2019 Actual Previous
10:00 AM
IL
GDP Growth Rate QoQ 2nd Est Q1 1.2% 0.9% ®
Monday June 17 2019 Actual Previous
07:00 AM
TR
Unemployment Rate MAR 14.1% 14.7%
10:45 AM
DE
Bundesbank Mauderer Speech
11:05 AM
NG
Inflation Rate YoY MAY 11.40% 11.37%
12:30 PM
US
NY Empire State Manufacturing Index JUN -8.60 17.8
02:00 PM
US
NAHB Housing Market Index JUN 64 66
05:00 PM
EA
ECB President Draghi Speech
08:00 PM
US
Foreign Bond Investment APR $16.9B $-12.5B
08:00 PM
US
Net Long-Term Tic Flows APR $46.9B $-25.9B ®
08:00 PM
US
Overall Net Capital Flows APR $-7.8B $-5.6B ®
DK
Parliamentary Elections
EA
ECB Forum on Central Banking
Tuesday June 18 2019 Actual Previous
01:30 AM
AU
RBA Meeting Minutes
01:30 AM
CN
House Price Index YoY MAY 10.7% 10.7%
08:00 AM
EA
ECB President Draghi Speech
09:00 AM
EA
Core Inflation Rate YoY Final MAY 0.8% 1.3%
09:00 AM
EA
Inflation Rate YoY Final MAY 1.2% 1.7%
09:00 AM
EA
Inflation Rate MoM MAY 0.1% 0.7%
09:00 AM
EA
Balance of Trade APR €15.7B €23.2B ®
09:00 AM
EA
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JUN -20.2 -1.6
09:00 AM
DE
ZEW Economic Sentiment Index JUN -21.1 -2.1
12:30 PM
US
Building Permits MAY 1.294M 1.29M
12:30 PM
US
Building Permits MoM MAY 0.3% 0.2%
12:30 PM
US
Housing Starts MAY 1.269M 1.281M ®
12:30 PM
US
Housing Starts MoM MAY -0.9% 6.8% ®
01:00 PM
RU
GDP Growth Rate YoY Final Q1 0.5% 2.7%
01:30 PM
DE
Bundesbank Wuermeling Speech
02:00 PM
EA
ECB President Draghi Speech
10:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change JUN/14 -0.812M 4.85M
11:50 PM
JP
Balance of Trade MAY ¥-967.1B ¥56.8B ®
11:50 PM
JP
Exports YoY MAY -7.8% -2.4%
EA
ECB Forum on Central Banking
Wednesday June 19 2019 Actual Previous
06:00 AM
DE
PPI MoM MAY -0.1% 0.5%
07:30 AM
SE
Unemployment Rate MAY 6.8% 6.2%
08:00 AM
IT
Balance of Trade APR €2.885B €4.579B ®
08:00 AM
PL
Employment Growth YoY MAY 2.7% 2.9%
08:00 AM
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY MAY 4.5% 4.4%