Week Ahead



Next week the US will be publishing building permits and housing starts, existing home sales, durable goods orders and flash Markit PMIs. Other important releases include: ECB and RBA meeting minutes; UK CBI factory orders; Eurozone flash Markit PMIs and consumer morale; Germany final Q3 GDP growth figures; and Japan inflation and trade balance.

Next week traders will be looking for indications about the state of the US housing market as key data such as building permits, housing starts, existing home sales and NAHB housing index are released. Recent forecasts suggest a recovery in existing home sales from September's 34-month low while figures for both housing starts and building permits should increase to 1.24 million and 1.27 million, respectively. November's home builder sentiment is also set to remain strong. Other important releases for the US include: durable goods orders, flash Markit PMIs and the final reading of Michigan consumer sentiment.

The UK will be publishing CBI factory orders and public finances figures. Also, BoE Governor Mark Carney will appear in the Parliament for Inflation Report hearing on Tuesday. Elsewhere, investors will be waiting for the ECB minutes release for further clarification on the next monetary policy steps. In addition, the Eurozone flash PMI will be highly anticipated as a further slowdown in economic activity growth is forecast, after October's data showed the pace of expansion hit a two-year low amid global trade tensions. The flash reading of November's consumer sentiment index should also point to a deterioration in morale across the bloc. Meanwhile, updated estimates of German GDP are likely to confirm its first contraction since early 2015 due to a decline in exports and household consumption. Other key highlights include: France unemployment and business confidence; Switzerland industrial production and foreign trade; and Turkey consumer confidence.

In addition, political developments in Italy will likely be watched as the European Commission has until November 21st to decide whether to take next step toward financial sanctions for the country. Meanwhile, European Union leaders will meet on November 25th to finalize the draft Brexit agreement.

In Japan, October's inflation is expected to hold steady at 1 percent, still well below the Bank of Japan's 2 percent target. The country's trade figures will also be followed. Meanwhile in Australia, the minutes of RBA's November meeting are awaited for clues of the next interest rate move. Other key highlights for the Asia-Pacific region include Thailand Q3 GDP figures and trade balance, as well as Malaysia inflation.


Joana Ferreira | joana.ferreira@tradingeconomics.com
11/16/2018 7:19:37 PM



 


Friday November 16 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
04:00 AM
MY
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 4.4% 4.5%
04:00 AM
MY
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q3 1.6% 0.3%
08:30 AM
EA
ECB Draghi Speech
08:30 AM
HK
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 2.9% 3.5%
08:30 AM
HK
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q3 0.1% -0.2%
08:30 AM
HK
Unemployment Rate OCT 2.8% 2.8%
10:00 AM
EA
Core Inflation Rate YoY Final OCT 1.1% 0.9%
10:00 AM
EA
Inflation Rate YoY Final OCT 2.2% 2.1%
10:00 AM
EA
Inflation Rate MoM OCT 0.2% 0.5%
10:00 AM
IT
Balance of Trade SEP €1.274B €2.491B ®
02:15 PM
US
Industrial Production YoY OCT 4.1% 5.6% ®
02:15 PM
US
Industrial Production MoM OCT 0.1% 0.2% ®
09:00 PM
US
Foreign Bond Investment SEP $-11.5B $63.1B
09:00 PM
US
Overall Net Capital Flows SEP $-29.1B $108.1B ®
09:00 PM
US
Net Long-Term Tic Flows SEP $30.8B $131.7B ®
Sunday November 18 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
11:00 AM
IL
GDP Growth Rate QoQ 1st Est Q3 0.6% 0.3% ®
11:50 PM
JP
Balance of Trade OCT ¥-449B ¥131B ®
11:50 PM
JP
Exports YoY OCT 8.2% -1.3% ®
Monday November 19 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
02:30 AM
TH
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 3.3% 4.6%
02:30 AM
TH
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q3 0.0% 0.9% ®
03:30 AM
JP
BoJ Gov Kuroda Speech
09:00 AM
PL
Employment Growth YoY OCT 3.2% 3.2%
10:00 AM
EA
Construction Output YoY SEP 4.6% 2.2% ®
11:30 AM
CL
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 2.8% 5.4% ®
11:30 AM
CL
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q3 0.3% 0.7%
01:00 PM
SK
Unemployment Rate OCT 5.2% 5.4%
03:00 PM
US
NAHB Housing Market Index NOV 60 68
03:45 PM
US
Fed Williams Speech
EA
Eurogroup Meeting
Tuesday November 20 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
12:30 AM
AU
RBA Meeting Minutes
06:30 AM
FR
Unemployment Rate Q3 9.1% 9.1%
07:00 AM
FI
Unemployment Rate OCT 6.3% 6.3%
07:00 AM
DE
PPI MoM OCT 0.3% 0.5%
07:00 AM
CH
Balance of Trade OCT CHF2.64B CHF1.27B ®
08:20 AM
AU
RBA Gov Lowe Speech
09:40 AM
EG
Unemployment Rate Q3 10% 9.9%
10:00 AM
GB
BoE Gov Carney Speech
10:00 AM
GB
BoE Inflation Report Hearings