Week Ahead

Next week, important releases for the US include: Q3 GDP growth, flash Markit PMIs, new and pending home sales and durable goods. Elsewhere, ECB and Bank of Canada monetary policy decisions; Eurozone, Germany and France flash Markit PMIs; and Japan flash Markit Manufacturing PMI will also be in the spotlight.

In the US, the most important release will be the first estimate for Q3 GDP growth, with markets anticipating an annualized 3.3 percent expansion, compared to 4.2 percent in the previous period which was the highest since the third quarter of 2014. Despite the slowdown, growth would remain above trend and would be the second-highest in near three years. Markit PMIs are also due next week, providing a first snapshot for the country’s private sector growth in October. Factory activity is seen rising slightly less while the services sector is expected to expand faster. Other releases include: new and pending home sales; final Michigan consumer sentiment; durable goods; FHFA housing index; Chicago Fed Index, Richmond Fed Index; and Kansas Fed Index. Fed officials will also speak at respective events.

Elsewhere in America, the Bank of Canada is seen rising rates by another 25bps after NAFTA negotiations concluded last month with Canada, the US and Mexico signing a new deal called United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA. It would be the fifth rate hike since July last year when the central bank started the tightening cycle. On Sunday October 28th, Brazilians will go to polls to vote for the second round of the Presidential election. Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right nationalist, continues to lead opinion polls and is seen as a market-friendly candidate expected to facilitate the implementation of needed reforms. In the first round, Bolsonaro won by a higher-than-expected 46 percent of votes against 29 percent for the leftist Worker's Party Haddad.

In Europe, the European Central Bank will decide on monetary policy, with markets anticipating no changes in borrowing costs but waiting for the central bank outlook on growth and inflation and comments on Italy's budget. Flash Markit PMIs for the Eurozone, Germany and France are expected to show a slowdown in all sectors expect for France services. Other importance data include: Euro Area flash consumer confidence; Germany Ifo business climate and Gfk consumer confidence, both seen falling; UK CBI factory orders; and monetary policy decisions from Russia, Turkey, Sweden and Norway, with none of the central banks seen changing rates. Investors will also follow Italy’s budget developments. After the country sent a first draft to the European Commission, Brussels said it is in a serious risk of non-compliance with EU budget rules, asking Italy to change it until Monday October 22nd.

In Asia, investors will be waiting for Japan flash Markit manufacturing PMI; South Korea preliminary estimates for GDP growth; and Indonesia monetary policy decision. The central bank is seen leaving rates steady after the rupiah stabilized in recent weeks and inflation slowed in September.

The Future Investment Initiative or “Davos in the Desert” summit will happen in Saudi Arabia between the 23rd and the 25th of October. Media representatives, sponsors, speakers and government officials already pulled out of the conference as the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi is still missing. The Washington Post contributor was last seen entering the Saudi consulate in Istanbul and Turkish authorities claim he has been killed by Saudi agents. President Trump threatened sanctions against Saudi Arabia if it proves to be true and the Saudi government said he would retaliate.




Joana Taborda | joana.taborda@tradingeconomics.com
10/20/2018 10:07:56 AM



 


Friday October 19 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
02:00 AM
CN
NBS Press Conference
02:00 AM
CN
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q3 6.5% 6.7%
02:00 AM
CN
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q3 1.6% 1.8%
02:00 AM
CN
Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) YoY SEP 5.4% 5.3%
02:00 AM
CN
Industrial Production YoY SEP 5.8% 6.1%
02:00 AM
CN
Retail Sales YoY SEP 9.2% 9%
04:30 AM
NL
Consumer Confidence OCT 15 19
06:35 AM
JP
BoJ Gov Kuroda Speech
08:30 AM
HK
Unemployment Rate SEP 2.8% 2.8%
08:30 AM
SK
Unemployment Rate SEP 5.4% 5.4%
08:45 AM
SI
Unemployment Rate AUG 8% 8%
10:00 AM
LU
GDP Growth Rate YoY Q2 3.1% 3.2% ®
10:00 AM
LU
GDP Growth Rate QoQ Q2 0% 0.9% ®
12:30 PM
CA
Inflation Rate YoY SEP 2.2% 2.8%
12:30 PM
CA
Retail Sales MoM AUG -0.1% 0.2% ®
12:30 PM
CA
Core Inflation Rate YoY SEP 1.5% 1.7%
12:30 PM
CA
Inflation Rate MoM SEP -0.4% -0.1%
01:00 PM
BR
Business Confidence OCT 53.7 52.8
01:00 PM
US
Fed Kaplan Speech
02:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales MoM SEP -3.4% -0.2% ®
02:00 PM
US
Existing Home Sales SEP 5.15M 5.33M ®
03:30 PM
GB
BoE Gov Carney Speech
04:00 PM
US
Fed Bostic Speech
EA
Euro-South Korea Summit
Saturday October 20 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
01:30 AM
CN
House Price Index YoY SEP 7.9% 7%
03:30 PM
US
Fed Bostic Speech
Monday October 22 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
02:00 AM
AU
RBA Debelle Speech
03:30 AM
TH
Balance of Trade SEP $0.49B $-0.59B
08:00 AM
TW
Unemployment Rate SEP 3.7% 3.69%
10:00 AM
DE
Bundesbank Monthly Report
10:00 AM
LU
Unemployment Rate SEP 5.4% 5.5%
12:30 PM
US
Chicago Fed National Activity Index SEP 0.17 0.27 ®
10:35 PM
AU
RBA Debelle Speech
Tuesday October 23 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
06:00 AM
FI
Unemployment Rate SEP 6.3% 6.8%
06:00 AM
DE
PPI MoM SEP 0.5% 0.3%
07:00 AM
TR
Consumer Confidence OCT 57.3 59.3
07:30 AM
ID
Interest Rate Decision 5.75% 5.75%
08:00 AM
PL
Unemployment Rate SEP 5.7% 5.8%
08:00 AM
ES
Balance of Trade AUG €-3.06B €-3.25B
10:00 AM
GB
CBI Industrial Trends Orders OCT -6 -1
10:00 AM
GB
CBI Business Optimism Index Q4 -16 -3
10:30 AM
GB
BoE Haldane Speech
01:30 PM
US
Fed Kashkari Speech
02:00 PM
EA
Consumer Confidence Flash OCT -2.7 -2.9
03:20 PM
GB
BoE Gov Carney Speech
05:30 PM
US
Fed Bostic Speech
08:30 PM
US
API Crude Oil Stock Change 19/OCT 9.88M -2.1M
10:15 PM
US
Fed Evans Speech
Wednesday October 24 2018 Actual Previous Consensus
12:30 AM
JP
Nikkei Manufacturing PMI Flash OCT 53.1 52.5
06:45 AM
FR
Business Confidence OCT 104 107
07:15 AM
FR
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash OCT 51.2 52.5
07:15 AM
FR
Markit Services PMI Flash OCT 55.6 54.8
07:30 AM
DE
Markit Services PMI Flash OCT 53.6 55.9
07:30 AM
DE
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash OCT 52.3 53.7
07:30 AM
SE
Monetary Policy Report
07:30 AM
SE
Riksbank Rate Decision -0.5% -0.5%
08:00 AM
EA
Markit Services PMI Flash OCT 53.3 54.7
08:00 AM
EA
Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash OCT 52.1 53.2
08:00 AM
ZA
Inflation Rate YoY SEP 4.9% 4.9%
08:30 AM
GB
UK Finance Mortgage Approvals SEP 38.505K 39.241K ®
01:00 PM
MX
Unemployment Rate SEP 3.6% 3.5%