Retail trade in Bulgaria rose 0.4 percent year-on-year in May of 2019, following an upwardly revised 1.2 percent increase in the previous month. Sales advanced at a softer pace for non-food products (1.4 percent vs 2.8 percent in April) and fell for food, beverages & tobacco (-2.7 percent vs 0.2 percent). In contrast, those of automotive fuel (4.7 percent vs 0.9 percent) and via mail order houses or via Internet (21.1 percent vs 18.2 percent) grew solidly. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.2 percent, after an upwardly revised 0.4 percent gain in the prior month. Retail Sales YoY in Bulgaria averaged 6.98 percent from 2001 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 24.60 percent in March of 2007 and a record low of -12.50 percent in January of 2010.
Retail Sales YoY in Bulgaria is expected to be -0.90 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales YoY in Bulgaria to stand at 2.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Bulgaria Retail Sales YoY is projected to trend around 4.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.