Bulgaria - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Bulgaria including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Bulgaria economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 percent
Unemployment Rate 6.10 7.2 7 7 6 6.5 percent
Inflation Rate 3.20 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.1 percent
Interest Rate 0.00 0.25 0.5 0.75 0.75 1 percent
Balance of Trade -565.00 -90 -780 -590 0 -500 BGN Million
Government Debt to GDP 22.60 21.5 21.5 20.9 20.9 20 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.67
1.67 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.94
Stock Market 632.01
points
614 600 586 573 522
Government Bond 10Y 1.05
percent
1.3 1.51 1.75 2.03 3.69
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.90
percent
0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6
GDP Annual Growth Rate 3.60
percent
3.2 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7
GDP 56.83
USD Billion
59 59 62 62 69
GDP Constant Prices 18324.42
BGN Million
24006 25015 18984 22140 26926
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3242.22
BGN Million
4477 5015 3359 4634 5398
GDP per capita 8311.93
USD
8320 8320 8450 8450 8560
GDP per capita PPP 18563.31
USD
18900 18900 19200 19200 20300
GDP From Agriculture 406.52
BGN Million
1733 738 421 873 794
GDP From Construction 810.78
BGN Million
1165 835 840 962 899
GDP From Manufacturing 4692.53
BGN Million
5579 5624 4861 5409 6054
GDP From Public Administration 3241.30
BGN Million
2792 3456 3358 3135 3720
GDP From Services 3489.63
BGN Million
5283 5722 3615 4694 6159
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 6.10
percent
7.2 7 7 6 6.5
Employed Persons 3099.30
Thousand
3249 3188 3126 3203 3213
Unemployed Persons 200.46
Thousand
187 189 191 191 191
Long Term Unemployment Rate 3.00
percent
2.67 2.6 2.49 2.38 1.82
Youth Unemployment Rate 11.20
percent
11.23 10.89 10.61 10.54 9.68
Labour Costs 155.47
Index Points
133 133 160 148 141
Job Vacancies 18467.00
18967 18717 19953 19008 19058
Wages 1107.00
BGN/Month
1140 1230 1200 1091 1400
Minimum Wages 260.76
EUR/Month
261 261 295 282 340
Population 7.05
Million
7.05 7.05 7 7.02 6.97
Retirement Age Women 61.17
61.17 61.17 61.33 61 61.5
Retirement Age Men 64.08
64.08 64.08 64.17 64 64.25
Wages High Skilled 1260.00
BGN/Month
1360 1360 1360 997 1400
Wages In Manufacturing 1007.00
BGN/Month
990 1010 1030 1086 1150
Wages Low Skilled 657.00
BGN/Month
680 680 680 559 700
Labor Force Participation Rate 54.60
percent
56.71 55.78 54.88 55.91 56.05
Living Wage Family 1060.00
BGN/Month
1060 1060 1113 1060 1060
Living Wage Individual 675.00
BGN/Month
696 696 696 696 695
Part Time Employment 61.70
Thousand
66.77 63.38 63.4 66.04 64.68
Productivity 104.30
Index Points
117 117 117 117 117
Full Time Employment 2962.10
Thousand
3086 3038 2982 3037 3050
Employment Change 0.00
percent
0.11 0.23 0.37 0.2 0.28
Employment Rate 51.50
percent
53.93 52.97 52.17 53.36 53.73
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.20
percent
2.3 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.1
Inflation Rate Mom 0.10
percent
0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2
Harmonised Consumer Prices 102.34
Index Points
102 104 104 105 108
Consumer Price Index CPI 6790.82
Index Points
6775 6894 6906 6954 7201
Core Consumer Prices 100.40
Index Points
99.69 101 101 102 105
Core Inflation Rate 2.20
percent
1.4 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.6
Producer Prices 106.00
Index Points
105 106 106 105 111
Export Prices 100.60
Index Points
99.68 100 99.48 99.55 99.65
Import Prices 99.20
Index Points
98.51 98.44 98.92 99.74 102
Producer Prices Change 5.70
percent
2.9 2.5 2.2 1.5 2.2
CPI Housing Utilities 14977.31
Index Points
14956 15230 15316 15337 15907
CPI Transportation 7928.68
Index Points
7620 7815 7743 8119 8163
Food Inflation 2.10
percent
2.2 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.5
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 0.00
percent
0.25 0.5 0.75 0.75 1
Interbank Rate -0.23
percent
-0.18 -0.18 -0.18 -0.18 -0.18
Money Supply M0 14258.50
BGN Million
14375 14412 14444 14458 14471
Money Supply M1 48745.90
BGN Million
50342 51550 52744 53925 65092
Money Supply M2 87395.00
BGN Million
89048 90407 91744 93056 104974
Money Supply M3 87458.00
BGN Million
89107 90463 91798 93108 105014
Foreign Exchange Reserves 45981.23
BGN Million
46356 46402 46423 46425 46427
Deposit Interest Rate 0.05
percent
0.8 0.69 0.74 0.8 1.22
Loans To Private Sector 31901844.00
BGN Thousand
32215627 32402924 32564379 32703636 33378237
Central Bank Balance Sheet 7846.20
BGN Million
7866 7872 7867 7872 7871
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -565.00
BGN Million
-90 -780 -590 0 -500
Exports 4301.20
BGN Million
4820 4620 5150 5410 5650
Imports 4866.20
BGN Million
4910 5400 5740 5410 6150
Current Account 47.30
EUR Million
86.22 56.66 65.37 67.95 65.97
Current Account to GDP 4.50
percent
3.2 3.2 3 3 2.9
External Debt 32876.90
EUR Million
32616 32498 32395 32306 31839
Capital Flows 313.00
EUR Million
256 264 262 262 262
Remittances 116.90
EUR Million
100 97.72 101 103 101
Tourist Arrivals 938642.00
1254000 575000 862500 876300 587000
Gold Reserves 40.40
Tonnes
40.42 40.43 40.45 40.46 40.57
Terrorism Index 1.18
0.66 0.64 0.55 0.46 1
Weapons Sales 61.00
USD Million
24.99 23.28 23.8 24.31 28.81
Foreign Direct Investment 5.60
EUR Million
7.88 13.45 11.93 12.17 12.14
Crude Oil Production 1.00
BBL/D/1K
1 1 1 1 1
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 22.60
percent
21.5 21.5 20.9 20.9 20
Government Budget 0.90
percent of GDP
-0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -0.5 -0.1
Government Budget Value 167.56
BGN Million
116 145 144 142 142
Government Spending to GDP 35.20
percent
36.79 37.49 38.01 38.54 37.08
Government Debt 12095.90
EUR Million
11962 11875 11797 11727 11316
Military Expenditure 843.41
USD Million
942 984 1028 1071 1505
Government Revenues 2802.02
BGN Million
2838 2867 2863 2860 2861
Government Spending 1547.92
BGN Million
1609 2133 1604 1784 2296
Asylum Applications 85.00
persons
196 176 170 175 175
Fiscal Expenditure 2597.33
BGN Million
2722 2719 2718 2718 2718
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 31.80
Index Points
32.71 33.05 33.13 33.16 33.17
Industrial Production 0.00
percent
3.13 1.5 0.13 0.14 1.6
Industrial Production Mom 1.80
percent
0.01 0.6 0.22 0.23 0.4
Manufacturing Production 0.70
percent
0.5 0.69 0.72 0.7 0.7
Capacity Utilization 76.30
percent
76.22 76.15 76.14 76.15 76.16
Changes in Inventories 249.54
BGN Million
321 454 315 411 416
Internet Speed 15540.59
KBps
15143 14947 14976 14892 14828
IP Addresses 1705695.00
IP
1692322 1697569 1703278 1699693 1703171
Mining Production -8.20
percent
-1.88 -1.32 -1.01 -0.82 -0.58
Steel Production 55.00
Thousand Tonnes
54.69 54.76 54.82 54.81 54.8
Competitiveness Index 4.46
Points
4.39 4.39 4.47 4.5 4.5
Competitiveness Rank 49.00
49 49 48 48 46
Ease of Doing Business 50.00
59 63 63 62 45
Electricity Production 3028.00
Gigawatt-hour
4010 3857 3843 3864 3858
Corruption Index 43.00
Points
41 40 41 41 41
Corruption Rank 71.00
74 74 73 73 73
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence -23.20
Index Points
-24.2 -24.43 -24.04 -24.56 -24.48
Retail Sales MoM 0.60
percent
0.47 0.5 0.45 0.45 0.5
Retail Sales YoY 6.30
percent
6.11 3.2 6.18 6.19 2.7
Consumer Credit 20819.14
Million BGL
21687 22276 22828 23346 27074
Gasoline Prices 1.34
USD/Liter
1.27 1.2 1.13 1.07 0.62
Households Debt To Income 32.71
percent
31.22 30.73 30.3 29.87 25.13
Consumer Spending 14931.40
BGN Million
15519 18948 15469 15800 20396
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Construction Output -0.50
percent
9.18 0.9 -0.1 -0.1 1.5
Housing Index 120.65
Index Points
122 122 122 122 122
Housing Starts 723.00
807 807 807 807 807
Home Ownership Rate 82.90
percent
82.87 83.05 83.06 83.07 83.09
Building Permits 1162.00
Units
1516 1317 1228 1619 1354
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 10 10 10
Personal Income Tax Rate 10.00
percent
10 10 9.75 10 9
Sales Tax Rate 20.00
percent
20 20 20 20 20
Social Security Rate 32.40
percent
32.4 32.4 33.25 33 35
Social Security Rate For Companies 19.06
percent
20.07 20.07 19.8 19.71 21.05
Social Security Rate For Employees 13.34
percent
13.5 13.5 13.43 13.41 13.35
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 2.21
mm
45.18 54.47 43.25 58.1 52.68
Temperature 1.95
celsius
19.66 6.28 1.54 17.07 10.75