Brunei's economy advanced 1.0% year-on-year in Q4 2018, after a downwardly revised 1.1% contraction in Q3 and reaching the first yearly expansion in three quarters. Both household consumption (6.7% vs -1.8%) and government spending (7.2% vs -0.1%) rebounded sharply, and fixed investment growth accelerated strongly (45.4% vs 24.2%). Meanwhile, net exports contributed negatively to the GDP growth, as exports grew 15.1% (vs 0.6% in Q3) while imports jumped 45.7% (vs 36.8%). On the expenditure side, the service sector rose far stronger (6.4% vs 0.7% in Q3), supported by wholesale and retail trade (5.2%) and air transport (5.6%). Also, the agriculture, forestry and fishing rose 0.4%, the second straight quarter of increase. In contrast, the industry sector fell (-2.3% vs -2.2%), mainly attributed to the manufacture of LNG and methanol which continued to slip (-6.3%). On a quarterly basis, the economy grew 6 percent in Q4, following a 4.1 percent growth in Q3. GDP Annual Growth Rate in Brunei averaged 0.17 percent from 2004 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 6.60 percent in the second quarter of 2010 and a record low of -8.10 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013.
GDP Annual Growth Rate in Brunei is expected to be 1.40 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate GDP Annual Growth Rate in Brunei to stand at 1.10 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Brunei GDP Annual Growth Rate is projected to trend around 2.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.