Retail sales in Brazil fell 2.2 percent month-over-month in December 2018, following an upwardly revised 3.1 percent gain in November. It is the biggest decline in retail trade since January 2016, as sales dropped for other articles for personal & domestic use (-13.1 percent from 8.3 percent in November); furniture & household appliances (-5.1 percent from 4.2 percent); fabrics, clothing & footwear (-3.7 percent from 1.7 percent); hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages & tobacco (-0.3 percent from 1.9 percent). Also, sales of office equipment, computer & communication decreased further and for the fourth consecutive month (-5.5 percent from -0.4 percent) and pharmaceutical &cosmetics articles rose less (0.4 percent from 2.6 percent). Meanwhile, sales of fuels & lubricants increased at a faster pace (1.4 percent from 0.1 percent). Year-on-year, retail trade went up 0.6 percent, after an upwardly revised 4.5 percent. Considering full 2018, retail sales rose 2.3 percent. Retail Sales MoM in Brazil averaged 0.29 percent from 2000 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 4 percent in January of 2017 and a record low of -2.50 percent in January of 2016.
Retail Sales MoM in Brazil is expected to be 0.60 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in Brazil to stand at 0.70 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Brazil Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 1.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.