Retail sales in Brazil showed were flat over the previous month in February 2019, following a 0.4 percent gain in January and below market expectations of a 0.2 percent rise. Sales fell for office equipment, computer & communication (-3.0 percent from 8.2 percent in January); hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages & tobacco (-0.7 percent from 0.6 percent); fuels & lubricants (-0.9 percent from 0.5 percent); and furniture & household appliances (-0.3 percent from 0.4 percent). Also, sales of other articles for personal & domestic use increased at a softer pace (1.0 percent from 7.2 percent). Meanwhile, sales of pharmaceutical & cosmetics articles rebounded (0.1 percent from -0.5 percent) and rose further for fabrics, clothing & footwear (4.4 percent from 0.1 percent). Additionally, sales of books, newspapers, magazines & stationery were steady (at 0.2 percent). Year-on-year, retail trade went up 3.9 percent, after increasing 1.9 percent in the prior month. Retail Sales MoM in Brazil averaged 0.29 percent from 2000 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 4 percent in January of 2017 and a record low of -2.60 percent in January of 2016.
Retail Sales MoM in Brazil is expected to be 0.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in Brazil to stand at 0.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Brazil Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 1.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.