Retail sales in Brazil decreased 0.6 percent over the previous month in April 2019, following an upwardly revised 0.1 percent rise in the prior month and against market expectations of a flat reading. Sales went down for hypermarkets, supermarkets, food products, beverages & tobacco (-1.8% vs -0.7% in March); fabrics, clothing & footwear (-5.5% vs -3.1%); pharmaceutical & cosmetics articles (-0.7% vs 1.1%); other articles for personal and domestic use (-0.4% vs 0.8%) and office equipment, computer & communication (-8% vs 2.6%). In contrast, gains were posted by furniture & appliances (1.7% vs 0.4%); books, newspapers, magazines & stationery (4.3% vs -3.7%) and fuels & lubricants (0.3% vs -0.8%). Year-on-year, retail trade rose 1.7 percent, recovering from a downwardly revised 4.4 percent fall in March but missing market expectations of a 2.9 percent rise. Considering the first four months of the year, retail sales increased 0.6 percent. Retail Sales MoM in Brazil averaged 0.28 percent from 2000 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 3.90 percent in January of 2017 and a record low of -2.70 percent in March of 2003.
Retail Sales MoM in Brazil is expected to be 0.10 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Retail Sales MoM in Brazil to stand at 0.50 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Brazil Retail Sales MoM is projected to trend around 1.00 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.