The Central Bank of Brazil voted unanimously to hold its key Selic rate at a record low of 6.50 percent on 19 June 2019, as widely expected. The Committee underscored that recent data on economic activity indicate a halt in the process of economic recovery in the past quarters. The economic recovery is still taking longer than expected, with recent negative data. The Brazilian economy shrank 0.2 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2019, slowing from a 0.1 percent expansion in the previous period. Interest Rate in Brazil averaged 14.90 percent from 1999 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 45 percent in March of 1999 and a record low of 6.50 percent in March of 2018.

Interest Rate in Brazil is expected to be 6.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Interest Rate in Brazil to stand at 5.75 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Brazil Interest Rate is projected to trend around 6.50 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.

Brazil Interest Rate
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Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-02-06 08:30 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
2019-03-20 09:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
2019-05-08 09:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
2019-06-19 09:30 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
2019-07-31 09:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.5% 6.5%
2019-09-18 09:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 6.25%
2019-10-30 08:00 PM Interest Rate Decision 5.75%



Brazil Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged

The Central Bank of Brazil voted unanimously to hold its key Selic rate at a record low of 6.50 percent on May 8th 2019, as widely expected. Policymakers said that the decision is consistent with the convergence of inflation to the target range and will continue to depend on the evolution of economic activity, inflation outlook and balance of risks. The Committee added that developments of the reform agenda will affect current expectations and macroeconomic projections.

The Committee underscored that recent data on economic activity indicate a halt in the process of economic recovery in the past quarters. It judged that the decision reflects its baseline scenario for prospective inflation and the associated balance of risks, and is consistent with convergence of inflation to target over the relevant horizon for the conduct of monetary policy, which includes 2019 and, with gradually increasing weight, 2020. The Copom reiterated that economic conditions prescribe stimulative monetary policy, i.e., interest rates below the structural level.

The central bank started its easing cycle in October of 2016 after the inflation rate eased from double digits. The inflation rate finished 2018 within the central bank target of 4.5 percent plus or minus 1.5 percentage points and above 2.95 percent in 2017. It currently remains on target. The annual inflation rate in Brazil fell to 4.66 percent in May 2019 from 4.94 percent in the previous month and below market expectations of 4.72 percent.

The economic recovery is still taking longer than initially expected, with recent negative data. The Brazilian economy shrank 0.2 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2019, slowing from a 0.1 percent expansion in the previous period and in line with market. It was the first contraction since the last quarter of 2016. Furthermore, the latest central bank’s Focus survey of market expectations (14 June 2019) pointed to lower GDP growth forecasts for 2019, lower to 0.93% from 1.24% four weeks ago.



Mario | mario@tradingeconomics.com
6/19/2019 9:31:46 PM


News

Brazil Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged
The Central Bank of Brazil voted unanimously to hold its key Selic rate at a record low of 6.50 percent on May 8th 2019, as widely expected. Policymakers said that the decision is consistent with the convergence of inflation to the target range and will continue to depend on the evolution of economic activity, inflation outlook and balance of risks. The Committee added that developments of the reform agenda will affect current expectations and macroeconomic projections.
Published on 2019-05-09

Brazil Leaves Monetary Policy Unchanged
The Central Bank of Brazil voted unanimously to hold its key Selic rate at a record low of 6.50 percent on March 20th 2019, as widely expected. Policymakers noted that recent data on economic activity came in below expectations, still the domestic economy continues on a gradual recovery path and added that the global outlook remains challenging.
Published on 2019-03-21

Brazil Holds Interest Rate at 6.5%
The Central Bank of Brazil voted unanimously to hold its key Selic rate at a record low of 6.50 percent on February 6th 2019, as widely expected. Policymakers said that the decision reflects its baseline scenario for prospective inflation and its risks and it is consistent with the convergence of inflation to the target range.
Published on 2019-02-07

Brazil Holds Interest Rate at 6.50% as Expected
The Central Bank of Brazil voted unanimously to hold its key Selic rate at 6.50 percent on 12 December 2018 as widely expected, keeping borrowing costs at the lowest level in modern history amid target inflation and lackluster GDP growth. It was the second monetary policy meeting after the presidential election.
Published on 2018-12-13



Brazil Money Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Interest Rate 6.50 6.50 45.00 6.50 percent [+]
Cash Reserve Ratio 21.00 21.00 100.00 21.00 percent [+]
Money Supply M0 276039.96 277875.95 308562.23 0.00 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M1 372106.54 365697.26 406865.02 0.00 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M2 2840426.99 2826045.54 2840426.99 0.01 BRL Million [+]
Money Supply M3 6400228.71 6322219.14 6400228.71 0.01 BRL Million [+]
Foreign Exchange Reserves 388092.00 386162.00 388092.00 1187.00 USD Million [+]
Banks Balance Sheet 6401619.80 6370202.60 6401619.80 1174638.70 BRL Million [+]
Loans to Private Sector 615189.00 623927.00 875167.00 169316.00 BRL Million [+]
Deposit Interest Rate 6.19 5.70 54180.08 5.66 percent [+]
Interbank Rate 5.49 5.49 16.05 0.89 percent [+]
Loan Growth 0.60 0.00 3.68 -1.02 percent [+]
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3554375366.00 3504944574.00 3554375366.00 6.40 BRL Thousand [+]


Brazil Interest Rate

In Brazil, interest rate decisions are taken by The Central Bank of Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM). The official interest rate is the Special System of Clearance and Custody rate (SELIC) which is the overnight lending rate. This page provides - Brazil Interest Rate - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news. Brazil Interest Rate - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on July of 2019.

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
6.50 6.50 45.00 6.50 1999 - 2019 percent Daily




Country Last Previous
Argentina 58.72 Jul/19
Turkey 24.00 Jun/19
Mexico 8.25 Jul/19
Russia 7.50 Jun/19
Brazil 6.50 Jun/19
South Africa 6.50 Jul/19
India 5.75 Jul/19
Indonesia 5.75 Jul/19
China 4.35 Jun/19
Saudi Arabia 3.00 Jun/19
United States 2.50 Jun/19
Canada 1.75 Jul/19
Singapore 1.67 Jun/19
South Korea 1.50 Jul/19
Australia 1.00 Jul/19
United Kingdom 0.75 Jun/19
Euro Area 0.00 Jun/19
France 0.00 Jun/19
Germany 0.00 Jun/19
Italy 0.00 Jun/19
Netherlands 0.00 Jun/19
Spain 0.00 Jun/19
Japan -0.10 Jun/19
Switzerland -0.75 Jun/19


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