Industrial production in Brazil fell 0.8 percent month-over-month in January 2019, following a 0.2 percent gain in the previous month and compared with market expectations of a 0.1 percent decrease. Main declines were recorded in production of pharmaceuticals & pharmacy products (-10.3 percent); machinery & equipment (-2.9 percent); pulp & paper products (-2.6 percent); coke, petroleum products & biofuels (-0.8 percent); leather, travel goods & footwear (-3.2 percent) and automotive vehicles & trailers (-0.5 percent). Meanwhile, output gains were registered in food (1.5 percent); beverages (6.1 percent); other chemical products (3.6 percent); tobacco (23.4 percent); metals (3.2 percent); computer equipment, electronic & optical products (3.7 percent) and textiles (4.0 percent). Year-on-year, industrial production went down 2.6 percent, after dropping 3.6 percent in December and compared with market consensus of a 1.2 percent fall. Industrial Production Mom in Brazil averaged 0.14 percent from 1985 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 25.10 percent in May of 1990 and a record low of -24.40 percent in April of 1990.
Industrial Production Mom in Brazil is expected to be -1.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Industrial Production Mom in Brazil to stand at 0.80 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Brazil Industrial Production MoM is projected to trend around 1.30 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.