Brazil - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Brazil including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Brazil economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40 0.5 0.3 0.4 0 0.7 percent
Unemployment Rate 12.70 12.6 12.5 11.9 11.7 12.1 percent
Inflation Rate 4.39 3.7 4.2 3.7 3.4 3.7 percent
Interest Rate 6.50 6.5 6.5 6.5 8 7.75 percent
Balance of Trade 5881.58 4000 4000 9000 4996 3000 USD Million
Government Debt to GDP 74.04 76 76 73 73 75 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 3.79
4.02 4.15 4.29 4.43 5.03
Stock Market 78571.29
points
70250 66993 63885 60916 50371
Government Bond 10Y 10.95
percent
11.87 12.33 12.81 13.3 15.48
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate 0.40
percent
0.5 0.3 0.4 0 0.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.20
percent
1.7 1.6 2.3 2.5 2.9
GDP 2055.51
USD Billion
2100 2100 2200 2200 2350
GDP Constant Prices 288864.85
BRL Million
298158 296508 295509 296999 313345
Gross National Product 1617026.20
BRL Million
1622904 1696843 1654218 1648198 1793195
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 263155.31
BRL Million
266168 272314 269208 254988 287777
GDP per capita 10888.98
USD
11200 11200 10000 10000 11730
GDP per capita PPP 14103.45
USD
13660 13660 15000 15000 16500
GDP From Agriculture 24333.40
BRL Million
18491 13370 24893 22962 14130
GDP From Construction 15021.56
BRL Million
15646 15579 15367 15347 16464
GDP From Manufacturing 27912.91
BRL Million
31758 30417 28555 29271 32145
GDP From Mining 2427.41
BRL Million
2667 2610 2483 2592 2758
GDP From Public Administration 39373.83
BRL Million
40317 40348 40279 40779 42639
GDP From Services 172296.07
BRL Million
179158 182020 176259 178240 192356
GDP From Transport 7952.51
BRL Million
8499 8476 8135 8236 8958
GDP From Utilities 6706.72
BRL Million
6490 6645 6861 6665 7023
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 12.70
percent
12.6 12.5 11.9 11.7 12.1
Employed Persons 90.89
Million
90.58 91 90.6 90.64 92
Unemployed Persons 13.24
Million
13.7 13.6 13.7 13.65 10
Labor Force Participation Rate 61.60
percent
61.63 62 61.64 61.64 62.8
Labour Costs 105.74
Index Points
117 125 115 115 139
Wages 2187.00
BRL/Month
2175 2200 2230 2210 2500
Minimum Wages 954.00
BRL/Month
954 954 1050 1050 1190
Population 207.66
Million
209 209 210 210 212
Retirement Age Women 60.00
60 60 60 60 60
Retirement Age Men 65.00
65 65 65 65 65
Living Wage Family 2380.00
BRL/Month
2400 2400 2450 2450 2550
Living Wage Individual 1450.00
BRL/Month
1479 1479 1500 1500 1550
Non Farm Payrolls -0.66
Thousand
36 -200 45 50 30
Productivity 105.74
Index Points
117 145 115 115 162
Wages High Skilled 4280.00
BRL/Month
4430 4430 4500 4500 4600
Wages In Manufacturing 2199.00
BRL/Month
2200 2230 2240 2200 2480
Wages Low Skilled 1310.00
BRL/Month
1350 1350 1400 1400 1450
Employment Rate 53.60
percent
53.51 54.9 53.49 53.48 56
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 4.39
percent
3.7 4.2 3.7 3.4 3.7
Inflation Rate Mom 1.26
percent
0.86 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5
Consumer Price Index CPI 5044.46
Index Points
5041 5123 5134 5216 5509
Core Inflation Rate 3.26
percent
3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.7
GDP Deflator 3.80
percent
4.78 3.46 4.06 4.66 3.99
Producer Prices 742.03
Index Points
693 710 722 763 775
Export Prices 131.36
Index Points
126 126 126 126 125
Import Prices 122.46
Index Points
124 125 124 124 145
Food Inflation 1.05
percent
1.6 2 3 3.09 3.3
Producer Prices Change 6.40
percent
2 2.3 2.5 2.8 4.8
CPI Housing Utilities 8647.63
Index Points
8515 8744 8664 8942 9403
CPI Transportation 4874.99
Index Points
4772 4903 4957 5041 5272
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 6.50
percent
6.5 6.5 6.5 8 7.75
Cash Reserve Ratio 25.00
percent
21.99 45 20.87 20.77 45
Money Supply M0 269827.76
BRL Million
269119 268983 268993 269011 269021
Money Supply M1 334400.84
BRL Million
333293 333087 333092 333087 333086
Money Supply M2 2529760.05
BRL Million
2575348 2609225 2642835 2676180 2995521
Money Supply M3 5964813.78
BRL Million
6118377 6235088 6352265 6469193 7619253
Foreign Exchange Reserves 379500.00
USD Million
379168 378184 377956 377706 549000
Banks Balance Sheet 5920108.90
BRL Million
6076226 6000000 6172993 6220063 6100000
Loans to Private Sector 680499.00
BRL Million
660961 647093 634045 621743 531497
Deposit Interest Rate 8.51
percent
8.51 8.51 8.51 10.01 9.76
Loan Growth 0.50
percent
0.2 0.6 0.4 0.5 0.5
Central Bank Balance Sheet 3367787519.00
BRL Thousand
3433302026 3503256936 3572239652 3640789262 4302628617
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 5881.58
USD Million
4000 4000 9000 4996 3000
Exports 20201.68
USD Million
20000 19500 24000 18917 25000
Imports 14320.11
USD Million
14500 15000 15000 13921 22000
Current Account 729.20
USD Million
-600 -500 -650 -680 -500
Current Account to GDP -0.48
percent
-0.6 -0.6 -1.7 -1.7 -1.9
External Debt 673910.02
USD Million
672288 675034 674392 673557 734000
Terms of Trade 107.27
Index Points
102 101 102 102 86.21
Capital Flows 1191.70
USD Million
-227 -125 -125 -126 1030
Foreign Direct Investment 2978.50
USD Million
5100 4000 3700 4400 4500
Remittances 241.10
USD Million
221 227 227 227 226
Gold Reserves 67.30
Tonnes
67.29 67.29 67.29 67.29 67.29
Crude Oil Production 2557.00
BBL/D/1K
2577 2578 2578 2578 2578
Terrorism Index 1.57
1.6 1.6 1.3 1.3 1.4
Weapons Sales 45.00
USD Million
65 65 75 75 70
Tourist Arrivals 6578.00
Thousand
6700 6700 6750 6750 6800
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 74.04
percent
76 76 73 73 75
Government Budget -7.80
percent of GDP
-7.6 -7.6 -6.1 -6.1 -7
Government Budget Value -47900.00
BRL Million
-21836 -16386 -18342 -18342 -110000
Government Spending 102282.75
BRL Million
113521 150212 116729 109144 158742
Government Revenues 106190.00
BRL Million
116553 115955 117342 117957 119168
Military Expenditure 25751.34
USD Million
26474 26474 21968 21968 22000
Government Debt 5133267.76
BRL Million
5300998 5429972 5557347 5683201 6861993
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Business Confidence 50.20
Index Points
44 47 48 50 55
Services PMI 47.00
Index Points
51 51.5 50.4 51 52.7
Manufacturing PMI 49.80
52 52.5 52 51.6 52.8
Composite Pmi 47.00
Index
51.2 52 52.4 52.8 53.4
Industrial Production -6.60
percent
2.8 2.4 3.5 3 2.1
Industrial Production Mom -10.90
percent
1.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 1.1
Manufacturing Production -7.80
percent
2.3 3.6 3.7 -3.39 1.6
Capacity Utilization 75.90
percent
75.84 79 75.64 75.62 79
Changes in Inventories 24311.98
BRL Million
-1562 30000 -2615 -2668 21000
Total Vehicle Sales 163517.00
167700 166903 167162 167280 176000
Car Production 256305.00
Units
240000 230000 235000 240000 260000
Car Registrations 202.00
Thousand
0.01 205 210 215 220
Leading Economic Index -3.34
percent
0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2
Small Business Sentiment 48.90
49.04 51 50.13 50.15 51
Internet Speed 6819.06
KBps
9947 10325 10729 11007 12317
IP Addresses 26855780.00
IP
26704333 26721060 26725164 26730033 26743459
Mining Production 1.90
percent
-1.2 1.3 1.2 1.4 1.2
Steel Production 2678.00
Thousand Tonnes
2752 2740 2746 2747 2746
Competitiveness Index 4.14
Points
4.14 4.14 4.2 4.2 4.2
Competitiveness Rank 80.00
80 80 81 81 82
Ease of Doing Business 125.00
125 125 126 126 124
Corruption Index 37.00
Points
34 34 30 30 30
Corruption Rank 96.00
94 94 98 98 95
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Confidence 98.30
Index Points
101 102 102 102 103
Retail Sales MoM -0.60
percent
0.1 0.5 0.6 0.17 1
Retail Sales YoY 2.70
percent
2.4 3.8 2.43 3.3 2.1
Consumer Spending 1046310.74
BRL Million
1057742 1106903 1070376 1046603 1169756
Consumer Credit 1687096.00
BRL Million
1685344 1685811 1686023 1686123 1686204
Private Sector Credit 2886644.00
BRL Million
2936836 3300000 2988190 3007459 3690000
Bank Lending Rate 53.79
percent
53.79 53.79 53.79 55.29 55.04
Households Debt To Gdp 24.70
Percent
24.59 24.65 24.62 24.62 24.63
Gasoline Prices 1.15
USD/Liter
1.09 1.03 0.97 0.92 0.69
HOUSING Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Housing Index 129.30
Index Points
129 129 129 129 130
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 34.00
percent
34 34 34 34 30
Personal Income Tax Rate 27.50
percent
27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5
Sales Tax Rate 17.00
percent
17 17 17 17 17
Social Security Rate 39.80
percent
39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8 39.8
Social Security Rate For Companies 28.80
percent
28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8
Social Security Rate For Employees 11.00
percent
11 11 11 11 11
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Temperature 24.74
celsius
24.29 25.42 25.32 25.51 25.3