Bahrain - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Bahrain including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Bahrain economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.50 1.7 0.6 -1.1 1.2 1 percent
Unemployment Rate 4.00 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.5 percent
Inflation Rate 2.80 3.7 3.8 3.8 2.7 4 percent
Interest Rate 2.25 2.5 2.75 2.75 3 3.25 percent
Balance of Trade -263.20 -300 -300 -200 -817 500 BHD Million
Government Debt to GDP 90.60 96 96 99 99 102 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Stock Market 1354.66
points
1220 1210 1210 1210 1080
Currency 0.38
0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38 0.38
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Growth Rate -0.50
percent
1.7 0.6 -1.1 1.2 1
GDP Annual Growth Rate -1.20
percent
3.2 2.7 2.8 0.8 3.8
GDP 35.31
USD Billion
36 36 36.75 36.75 37
GDP Constant Prices 3043.83
BHD Million
3216 3141 3129 3144 3367
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 3043.30
BHD Million
3092 3125 3129 3068 3351
GDP per capita 22111.50
USD
22287 22287 22352 22352 22790
GDP per capita PPP 43290.70
USD
43396 43396 43652 43652 44002
GDP From Agriculture 23.94
BHD Million
24.33 24.59 24.61 24.14 26.36
GDP From Construction 228.20
BHD Million
222 230 235 217 246
GDP From Manufacturing 465.00
BDT Million
461 468 478 450 502
GDP From Mining 483.90
BHD Million
616 532 497 592 570
GDP From Public Administration 401.91
BHD Million
406 413 413 399 443
GDP From Services 1789.60
BHD Million
1838 1832 1840 1806 1965
GDP From Transport 224.40
BHD Million
237 229 231 231 245
GDP From Utilities 42.40
BHD Million
45.82 43.65 43.59 43.14 46.8
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 4.00
percent
4.1 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.5
Employed Persons 649765.00
675558 679935 685897 692723 753481
Population 1.50
Million
1.57 1.59 1.62 1.64 1.86
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 2.80
percent
3.7 3.8 3.8 2.7 4
Consumer Price Index CPI 132.00
Index Points
135 133 137 137 144
GDP Deflator 101.26
Index Points
102 103 103 103 106
Inflation Rate Mom 0.00
percent
1.6 1.6 1.7 0.18 1.8
CPI Housing Utilities 118.60
Index Points
123 119 123 123 128
CPI Transportation 134.90
Index Points
128 122 140 132 132
Food Inflation 2.60
percent
2.26 2.42 2.43 2.41 2.41
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 2.25
percent
2.5 2.75 2.75 3 3.25
Interbank Rate 3.50
percent
3.75 4 4 4.25 4.5
Money Supply M0 569.60
BHD Million
567 567 568 568 568
Money Supply M2 10607.00
BHD Million
10652 10683 10713 10741 10960
Deposit Interest Rate 1.00
percent
1.25 1.5 1.5 1.75 2
Loan Growth 9.10
percent
9.35 9.53 9.57 9.58 9.59
Loans To Private Sector 4839.90
BHD Million
4925 4977 5016 5046 5131
Reverse Repo Rate 2.00
percent
2.17 2 2.52 2.69 3
Money Supply M3 12478.00
BHD Million
12512 12544 12575 12604 12855
Money Supply M1 3294.00
BHD Million
3306 3308 3309 3309 3309
Foreign Exchange Reserves 668.60
BHD Million
644 648 646 646 646
Central Bank Balance Sheet 2452.30
BHD Million
2477 2471 2471 2471 2471
Banks Balance Sheet 190060.30
USD Million
190385 190575 190725 190845 191260
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade -263.20
BHD Million
-300 -300 -200 -817 500
Exports 5781.40
BHD Million
6500 6500 7000 6612 7000
Imports 6044.60
BHD Million
6800 6800 7200 7430 6500
Current Account -522.10
BHD Million
-316 -317 -232 -147 -34.96
Current Account to GDP -4.60
percent
-3 -3 -2.5 -2.5 -1.7
Gold Reserves 4.70
Tonnes
4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7
Terrorism Index 3.67
3.41 3.5 3.41 3.32 3.95
Foreign Direct Investment 195.10
BHD Million
252 265 274 283 328
Capital Flows 362.90
BHD Million
-150 -402 -414 -425 -336
Crude Oil Production 40.00
BBL/D/1K
40 40 40 40 40
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 90.60
percent
96 96 99 99 102
Government Budget -13.20
percent of GDP
-14.93 -10 -14.45 -13.54 -8
Government Spending 1833.00
BHD Million
1862 1882 1884 1848 2019
Government Debt 10662.00
BHD Million
11311 11632 11949 12264 15254
Military Expenditure 1384.03
USD Million
1378 1362 1351 1340 1292
Government Budget Value -1505.10
BHD Million
-1518 -1556 -1555 -1604 -1771
Government Revenues 2177.50
BHD Million
2219 2232 2211 2190 2264
Fiscal Expenditure 3682.50
BHD Million
3737 3737 3766 3794 4035
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Changes in Inventories 197.00
BHD Million
194 190 188 186 253
Car Registrations 428.00
Hundreds
472 467 478 490 548
Internet Speed 7922.65
KBps
9771 10053 10328 10597 12946
IP Addresses 87840.00
IP
89301 90912 89820 90865 90453
Competitiveness Index 4.54
Points
4.47 4.47 4.51 4.52 4.5
Competitiveness Rank 44.00
45 45 45 45 45
Ease of Doing Business 66.00
75 78 78 78 84
Corruption Index 36.00
Points
37 35 35 35 32
Corruption Rank 133.00
164 186 188 191 138
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Consumer Spending 4798.90
BHD Million
4876 4928 4933 4837 5285
Consumer Credit 3924.10
BHD Million
3931 3934 3936 3937 3937
Gasoline Prices 0.37
USD/Liter
0.35 0.33 0.31 0.3 0.16
Bank Lending Rate 5.29
percent
5.54 5.79 5.79 6.04 6.29
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
Personal Income Tax Rate 0.00
percent
0 0 0 0 0
Social Security Rate 19.00
percent
19 19 19 19 19
Social Security Rate For Companies 12.00
percent
12 12 12 12 12
Social Security Rate For Employees 7.00
percent
7 7 7 7 7
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 29.46
mm
0.01 7.34 14.92 6.04 6.63
Temperature 18.37
celsius
33.85 22.84 17.7 33.41 26.59