Azerbaijan - Economic Forecasts - 2018-2020 Outlook

This page has economic forecasts for Azerbaijan including a long-term outlook for the next decades, plus medium-term expectations for the next four quarters and short-term market predictions for the next release affecting the Azerbaijan economy.


Overview Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.00 5 5 5 5 4.5 percent
Inflation Rate 3.00 3.8 4.2 4 4.5 6 percent
Interest Rate 10.00 11 9 9 8 7 percent
Balance of Trade 2512400.00 1757447 2201230 2233319 2168424 2153241 USD Thousand
Government Debt to GDP 46.40 42 42 37 37 34 percent
MARKETS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Currency 1.70
 1.72 1.74 1.77 1.79 1.9
GDP Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
GDP Annual Growth Rate 1.30
percent		 1.5 1.6 2.5 2.8 2.6
GDP 40.75
USD Billion		 42 42 57 57 65
GDP Constant Prices 37009.10
AZN Million		 50818 71257 17615 38045 74718
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 5328.60
AZN Million		 3407 5414 5462 5478 5677
GDP per capita 5805.10
USD		 5985 5985 6138 6138 6159
GDP per capita PPP 15847.40
USD		 16023 16023 16150 16150 17101
Gross National Product 52641.20
AZN Million		 53431 53483 53957 54115 56081
GDP From Agriculture 346.10
AZN Million		 665 352 355 356 369
GDP From Construction 939.90
AZN Million		 902 955 963 966 1001
GDP From Manufacturing 345.40
AZN Million		 295 351 354 355 368
GDP From Mining 3996.00
AZN Million 		3537 4060 4096 4108 4257
GDP From Public Administration 233.00
AZN Million		 202 237 239 240 248
GDP From Services 701.00
AZN Million 		590 712 719 721 747
GDP From Transport 928.80
AZN Million		 919 944 952 955 990
GDP From Utilities 39.00
AZN Million		 29.23 39.62 39.98 40.09 41.55
LABOUR Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Unemployment Rate 5.00
percent		 5 5 5 5 4.5
Employed Persons 4759.90
Thousand 		4808 4832 4849 4866 5096
Unemployed Persons 252.80
Thousand 		259 261 264 266 292
Minimum Wages 130.00
AZN/Month		 130 130 145 138 150
Population 9.80
Million		 9.87 9.9 9.92 9.95 10.2
Living Wage Family 755.00
AZN/Month		 755 755 775 755 775
Living Wage Individual 470.00
AZN/Month		 470 470 470 470 470
Wages 538.80
AZN/Month		 535 540 543 563 570
Wages High Skilled 649.00
AZN/Month		 670 670 670 613 680
Wages In Manufacturing 542.90
AZN/Month		 580 580 590 580 620
Wages Low Skilled 372.00
AZN/Month		 400 400 415 440 415
Retirement Age Men 63.50
 63 63 63.75 64 64
Retirement Age Women 60.50
 60 60 60.75 61 62
PRICES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Inflation Rate 3.00
percent		 3.8 4.2 4 4.5 6
Inflation Rate Mom -0.70
percent		 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.38 1
Food Inflation 3.00
percent		 3.5 3.6 4.5 4.7 4.5
Export Prices 83.70
Index Points		 72.48 69.72 71.87 74.02 141
GDP Deflator 111.30
Index Points		 108 107 107 107 106
Consumer Price Index Cpi 153.62
Index Points		 156 159 159 161 177
Import Prices 102.70
Index Points		 103 103 103 103 103
Producer Prices 100.90
Index Points		 119 112 109 120 126
Producer Prices Change 18.80
percent		 12 8.7 8.5 19.14 5.5
MONEY Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Interest Rate 10.00
percent		 11 9 9 8 7
Money Supply M0 7053.50
AZN Million		 6911 6852 6814 6790 6745
Money Supply M2 12599.00
AZN Million		 12732 12764 12788 12803 12828
Deposit Interest Rate 8.43
percent		 9.43 7.43 7.43 6.43 5.43
Money Supply M1 10691.70
AZN Million		 11142 11265 11347 11400 11502
Foreign Exchange Reserves 5508.00
USD Million		 5677 5699 5712 5718 5723
Money Supply M3 22459.50
AZN Million		 23297 23704 24110 24516 28573
TRADE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Balance of Trade 2512400.00
USD Thousand		 1757447 2201230 2233319 2168424 2153241
Exports 4703500.00
USD Thousand		 4437791 4610979 4562553 4570700 4562114
Imports 2191100.00
USD Thousand		 2680344 2394907 2329234 2402276 2408874
Current Account 1556.00
USD Million		 1195 1231 1460 1309 1317
Current Account to GDP 5.60
percent		 1.3 1.3 3.2 3.2 4
Capital Flows 463.00
USD Million		 411 326 249 285 294
Crude Oil Production 748.00
BBL/D/1K		 769 768 768 768 768
Gold Reserves 0.00
Tonnes		 -4.81 -5.08 -5.46 -5.9 -6.93
Foreign Direct Investment 1214.00
USD Million		 1064 1063 1041 1027 1004
Terrorism Index 1.15
 1.74 1.9 1.84 1.77 0.94
Tourist Arrivals 8949.00
 9600 9700 11600 13500 15800
Remittances 159.00
USD Million		 164 165 165 165 164
GOVERNMENT Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Government Debt to GDP 46.40
percent		 42 42 37 37 34
Government Budget -1.60
percent of GDP		 -1.6 -1.2 -1.94 -1.87 -0.8
Government Revenues 8245.20
AZN Million		 9092 8078 8565 8627 8533
Fiscal Expenditure 7594.40
AZN Million		 9328 8230 8638 8712 8631
Military Expenditure 1478.58
USD Million		 1466 1471 1451 1432 1375
Government Spending 2430.00
AZN Million		 2062 2469 2491 2498 2589
Government Spending To GDP 25.10
percent of GDP		 24.74 23.51 22.66 21.82 16.64
Government Budget Value 650.80
AZN Million		 -236 -126 -73.13 -84.59 -97.97
BUSINESS Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Industrial Production -0.50
percent		 0.15 -0.68 -0.6 -0.53 0.21
Manufacturing Production 4.00
percent		 4.75 5.14 5.21 5.28 4.88
Internet Speed 5671.61
KBps		 5552 5551 5552 5551 5551
IP Addresses 319679.00
IP		 353169 357058 359035 361838 374863
Leading Economic Index 1.30
percent		 1.04 1.1 1.04 1.04 3.5
Mining Production -5.00
percent		 -5.36 -5.36 -5.36 -5.36 -5.36
Corruption Index 31.00
Points		 31 31 32 32 34
Corruption Rank 122.00
 120 117 118 118 123
Ease of Doing Business 57.00
 62 62 62 61 63
Car Registrations 1136983.00
 1154073 1151974 1157338 1162702 1231067
Changes In Inventories 105.00
AZN Million		 65.93 92.64 96.12 83.01 114
Competitiveness Index 4.69
Points		 4.57 4.57 4.65 4.68 4.68
Competitiveness Rank 35.00
 33 33 35 35 33
CONSUMER Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Retail Sales YoY 1.50
percent		 6.48 5.64 6.58 7.52 12.06
Gasoline Prices 0.53
USD/Liter		 0.5 0.47 0.45 0.42 0.24
Disposable Personal Income 41560.10
AZN Million		 43768 44669 45278 45887 53813
Consumer Spending 11560.40
AZN Million		 11665 11745 11849 11884 12316
TAXES Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Corporate Tax Rate 20.00
percent		 20 20 20 20 20
Personal Income Tax Rate 25.00
percent		 25 25 25 25 25
Sales Tax Rate 18.00
percent		 18 18 18 18 18
Social Security Rate 25.00
percent		 25 25 25 25 25
Social Security Rate For Companies 22.00
percent		 22 22 22 22 22
Social Security Rate For Employees 3.00
percent		 3 3 3 3 3
CLIMATE Actual Q3/18 Q4/18 Q1/19 Q2/19 2020
Precipitation 29.24
mm		 32.11 34.63 30.83 37.2 38.69
Temperature 1.48
celsius		 21.47 6.77 1.37 20.03 11.46