The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia dropped by 0.1 percent month-over-month in November 2019, following a revised 0.2 percent decline in the previous month. Meanwhile, the six month annualised growth rate in the index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, fell to -0.81 percent in November from -0.78 percent in October. "“The Reserve Bank Board next meets on February 4. The minutes of the December Board meeting strengthen our conviction that the Board is likely to ease rates further. Westpac is comfortable with our current view that the RBA will reduce the cash rate from 0.75 percent to 0.5 percent at the February Board meeting”, said Westpac chief economist, Bill Evans.

Leading Economic Index in Australia averaged -0.01 percent from 1960 until 2019, reaching an all time high of 0.54 percent in April of 1975 and a record low of -1.11 percent in December of 2008. This page provides the latest reported value for - Australia Leading Economic Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. source: Westpac-Melbourne Institute

Leading Economic Index in Australia is expected to be -0.20 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Australia to stand at 0.00 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Australia Leading Economic Index is projected to trend around 0.20 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.


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Australia Leading Economic Index

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
-0.09 -0.15 0.54 -1.11 1960 - 2019 percent Monthly
1996=100

Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2019-09-18 12:30 AM Westpac Leading Index MoM Aug -0.3% 0.1% 0.1%
2019-10-16 12:30 AM Westpac Leading Index MoM Sep -0.1% -0.2% 0%
2019-11-20 12:30 AM Westpac Leading Index MoM Oct -0.1% -0.12% -0.3%
2019-12-18 12:30 AM Westpac Leading Index MoM Nov -0.09% -0.2% -0.1%
2020-01-29 12:30 AM Westpac Leading Index MoM Dec -0.09% -0.2%


News Stream
2019-11-20
Australia Leading Index Falls for 3rd Month
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia dropped by 0.1 percent month-over-month in October 2019, following a marginally revised 0.12 percent decline in the previous month. Meanwhile, the six month annualised growth rate in the index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose to -0.91 percent in October from -1.01 percent in September. "We expect that by next February the Board will have received enough information on the impact of the three cuts we have seen since June to acknowledge the need to reduce the cash rate by a further 0.25 percent, maintain a clear easing bias and consider introducing unconventional policies," said Westpac chief economist Bill Evans.

2019-10-16
Australia Leading Index Falls 0.1% MoM in September
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia dropped by 0.1 percent month-over-month in September 2019, following a downwardly revised 0.2 percent decline in the previous month. Meanwhile, the six month annualised growth rate in the index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, fell to -0.92 percent in September from –0.24 percent in August. “The growth rate is now materially below trend and is signaling that growth through the first half of 2020 is likely to remain below trend. That profile is broadly consistent with Westpac’s forecasts which have grown in the first half of 2020 at an annualized pace of 2.4 percent consistent with the overall growth pace in 2020 of 2.4 percent, said Westpac chief economist Bill Evans.

2019-09-18
Australia Leading Index Falls 0.3% MoM in August
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia droped by 0.3 percent month-over-month in August 2019, reversing from a 0.1 percent rise in the previous month. Meanwhile, the six month annualised growth rate, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, fell to -0.35 percent in August from 0.01 percent in July. "At this stage, we continue to see no reason why the central bank should delay the move with a cut in October looking to be the better option," said Westpac chief economist Bill Evans.

2019-08-21
Australia Leading Index Rises 0.1% MoM in July
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia increased by 0.1 percent month-over-month in July 2019, reversing from a 0.1 percent drop in the previous month. Meantime, the six-month annualized growth rate, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose to 0.05 percent in July from -0.09 percent in June. “This is first above trend read since November last year. Further confirmation of this around trend reading would be consistent with the economy growing around trend for the last three or four months of 2019 and well into the first half of 2020," said Westpac chief economist, Bill Evans.

2019-07-17
Australia Leading Index Falls 0.1% MoM in June
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia dropped by 0.1 percent month-over-month in June 2019, the same pace as in the previous month. Meantime, the six-month annualized growth rate, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose to -0.02 percent in June from -0.47 percent in May.

2019-06-19
Australia Leading Index Falls 0.1% MoM in May
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia dropped by 0.1 percent month-over-month in May 2019, the same pace as in the previous month. Meantime, the six-month annualized growth rate, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose slightly to -0.45 percent in May from -0.49 percent in April.


Australia Leading Economic Index
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity combines a selection of economic variables that typically lead fluctuations in economic activity into a single measure that provides a reliable cyclical indicator for the Australian economy. The index includes the following components: S&P/ASX 200, dwelling approvals, US industrial production, RBA Commodity Prices Index (A$), aggregate monthly hours worked, Westpac-MI CSI expectations index, Westpac-MI Unemployment expectations index, yield spread (10Y bond – 90D bill). The index has a base value of 100 as of 1996.

Australia Business Last Previous Highest Lowest Unit
Business Confidence 0.00 2.00 21.00 -30.00 points [+]
Services PMI 48.70 53.70 63.00 32.50 points [+]
Manufacturing PMI 48.30 48.10 62.50 29.47 points [+]
Industrial Production 1.90 1.30 12.60 -7.60 percent [+]
Industrial Production Mom 1.20 0.70 5.20 -7.10 percent [+]
Manufacturing Production -3.10 -1.70 8.60 -11.80 percent [+]
Capacity Utilization 81.07 81.68 84.62 78.24 percent [+]
New Orders 31.00 25.00 49.00 -37.00 points [+]
Changes in Inventories -941.00 -1366.00 4265.00 -3885.00 AUD Million [+]
Bankruptcies 748.00 741.00 1123.00 217.00 Companies [+]
Corporate Profits 97460.00 98235.00 98235.00 12032.00 AUD Million [+]
Total Vehicle Sales 84239.00 84708.00 130300.00 48099.00 [+]
Car Registrations 14330.43 14078.57 14330.43 3990.94 Thousand [+]
Leading Economic Index -0.09 -0.15 0.54 -1.11 percent [+]
Small Business Sentiment 1.21 0.84 18.55 -21.17 [+]
Internet Speed 11063.10 10098.33 11063.10 1922.87 KBps [+]
IP Addresses 9859878.00 9310525.00 13859005.00 5227461.00 IP [+]
Industrial Sentiment 49.10 49.20 57.20 49.10 points [+]
Private Investment -0.20 -0.60 15.70 -8.50 percent [+]
Mining Production 6.50 3.80 25.20 -16.90 percent [+]
Services Sentiment 48.90 49.80 58.40 48.70 points [+]
Steel Production 448.33 488.24 819.00 238.00 Thousand Tonnes [+]
Corruption Index 77.00 77.00 88.60 77.00 Points [+]
Corruption Rank 12.00 13.00 13.00 7.00 [+]
Competitiveness Index 78.75 78.85 78.85 5.08 Points [+]
Competitiveness Rank 16.00 14.00 22.00 14.00 [+]
Composite Pmi 48.60 49.60 58.30 48.60 points [+]
Business Inventories -0.40 -1.00 2.80 -2.80 percent [+]
Ease of Doing Business 14.00 18.00 18.00 9.00 [+]