The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia rose by 0.4 percent month-over-month in June 2020, after a 0.2 percent gain in May. Meantime, the six- month annualized growth rate in the index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, went up to -4.44 percent in June from –5.29% in May. “Despite another modest improvement this month, the Index growth rate remains in deeply negative territory consistent with recession," said Westpac’s Chief Economist, Bill Evans. "Our forecast assumes additional stimulus of $15 billion to be announced in the Federal Budget in October and a further $15 billion to extend both JobKeeper and JobSeeker through to the end of the fiscal year."

Leading Economic Index in Australia averaged -0.01 percent from 1960 until 2020, reaching an all time high of 0.54 percent in April of 1975 and a record low of -1.73 percent in April of 2020. This page provides the latest reported value for - Australia Leading Economic Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. Australia Leading Economic Index - data, historical chart, forecasts and calendar of releases - was last updated on August of 2020. source: Westpac Banking Corporation, Melbourne Institute

Leading Economic Index in Australia is expected to be 0.00 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Leading Economic Index in Australia to stand at 0.30 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Australia Leading Economic Index is projected to trend around 0.20 percent in 2021, according to our econometric models.

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Australia Leading Economic Index

Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit Frequency
0.44 0.20 0.54 -1.73 1960 - 2020 percent Monthly
1996=100


Calendar GMT Actual Previous Consensus TEForecast
2020-04-22 01:30 AM Westpac Leading Index MoM Mar -0.8% -0.4% -1%
2020-05-20 01:30 AM Westpac Leading Index MoM Apr -1.5% -0.7% -2.5%
2020-06-17 01:30 AM Westpac Leading Index MoM May 0.2% -1.5% -0.7%
2020-07-22 12:30 AM Westpac Leading Index MoM Jun 0.4% 0.2% 0.5%
2020-08-19 12:30 AM Westpac Leading Index MoM Jul 0.4%
2020-09-16 12:30 AM Westpac Leading Index MoM Aug
2020-10-21 12:30 AM Westpac Leading Index MoM Sep 0%
2020-11-18 12:30 AM Westpac Leading Index MoM Oct


News Stream
Australia Leading Index Rises Further in June
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia rose by 0.4 percent month-over-month in June 2020, after a 0.2 percent gain in May. Meantime, the six- month annualized growth rate in the index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, went up to -4.44 percent in June from –5.29% in May. “Despite another modest improvement this month, the Index growth rate remains in deeply negative territory consistent with recession," said Westpac’s Chief Economist, Bill Evans. "Our forecast assumes additional stimulus of $15 billion to be announced in the Federal Budget in October and a further $15 billion to extend both JobKeeper and JobSeeker through to the end of the fiscal year."
2020-07-22
Australia Leading Index Rebounds in May
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia rose by 0.2 percent month-over-month in May 2020, rebounding from a 1.5 percent fall in April. Meantime, the six- month annualised growth rate in the index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, rose to -4.79 percent in May from –5.08% in April. “Despite the slight improvement, the index growth rate remains in deep negative territory consistent with an economic recession," said Westpac’s Chief Economist, Bill Evans. “The Reserve Bank Board next meets on July 7. The minutes of the June meeting noted that it was possible that the downturn would be shallower than earlier expected. Accordingly, it seems likely that when the Bank releases its revised growth forecasts on August 7, it will adjust its current forecast for a 6% contraction in the economy over 2020 to something more in line with our own revised view."
2020-06-17
Australia Leading Index Plunges to Record Low
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia tumbled 1.5 percent month-over-month in April 2020, the weakest reading on record, following a downwardly revised 0.7 percent fall in the previous month. Meantime, the six month annualized growth rate in the index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, fell to -5.16 percent from -2.34 percent in March. "The speed of the collapse in the Index is unprecedented. We do not expect the economy to return to pre-Coronavirus levels of activity before 2022, " said Westpac’s chief economist, Bill Evans. “The Reserve Bank Board next meets on June 2. As we saw in the minutes for the May meeting the board is committed to maintaining its significant support for the economy for the foreseeable future."
2020-05-20
Australia Leading Index Lowest Since December 2008
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Economic Index in Australia dropped by 0.8 percent month-over-month in March 2020, the weakest reading since December 2008, following a 0.4 percent fall in the previous month. Meantime, the six month annualized growth rate in the index, which indicates the likely pace of economic activity relative to trend three to nine months into the future, fell to -2.47 percent from -0.97 percent in February. “The sharply weaker signal is consistent with a deepening economic impact from the coronavirus pandemic. The Leading index growth rate in March is the most negative seen since the Global Financial Crisis," said Westpac’s chief economist, Bill Evans, adding that the Reserve Bank of has confirmed its commitment to not increase the cash rate of 0.25% before bond yield target was relaxed.
2020-04-22

Australia Leading Economic Index
The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity combines a selection of economic variables that typically lead fluctuations in economic activity into a single measure that provides a reliable cyclical indicator for the Australian economy. The index includes the following components: S&P/ASX 200, dwelling approvals, US industrial production, RBA Commodity Prices Index (A$), aggregate monthly hours worked, Westpac-MI CSI expectations index, Westpac-MI Unemployment expectations index, yield spread (10Y bond – 90D bill). The index has a base value of 100 as of 1996.