House price index in Australia dropped by 2.4 percent quarter-on-quarter in the three months to December of 2018, further down from -1.5 percent in the previous quarter and compared to market expectations of a 2 percent drop. It marked the fourth straight quarter of fall in the index, as prices declined in six cities: Sydney (-3.7 percent vs -1.9 percent in Q3); Melbourne (-2.4 percent vs -2.6 percent); Perth (-1.0 percent vs -0.6 percent); Darwin (-0.6 percent vs -0.9 percent); Canberra (-0.2 percent vs +0.5 percent), and Brisbane (-1.1 percent) vs +0.6 percent). In contrast, prices rose for Adelaide (0.1 percent vs 0.6 percent) and Hobart (+0.7 percent). On a yearly basis, prices dropped a sharp 5.1 percent, compared to market expectations of -0.4 percent). Housing Index in Australia averaged 1.55 percent from 2002 until 2018, reaching an all time high of 6.10 percent in the second quarter of 2002 and a record low of -2.20 percent in the third quarter of 2008.
Housing Index in Australia is expected to be -1.50 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate Housing Index in Australia to stand at -0.54 in 12 months time. In the long-term, the Australia House Price Index is projected to trend around 2.10 percent in 2020, according to our econometric models.